Tuesday, May 2, 2023

Arizona and Nevada, the Southwest Battlegrounds

Rosen and SinemaJackie Rosen and Kyrsten Sinema

The four southwestern states, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, only represent a total of 32 electoral votes, whereas California has 55, Florida 29, and Texas 28 out of 270 needed to win the U.S. Presidency. But two of the states are battlegrounds: Arizona (11) and Nevada (6), and in an expected razor thin presidential race they will get maximum attention.

Southwest States Table

Both states are also having what is expected to be close Senate elections. In Nevada, incumbent Democrat Jackie Rosen will be running in a presidential battleground state carried by Joe Biden by about 3 points in both 2016 and 2020. She won by 5 points in 2018 and the seat is rated lean Democratic / battleground by the three main political rating journals (Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections).

Arizona’s Senate race is complicated and will be one of the most watched in the country. First term Kyrsten Sinema was a Democrat and as of December became an Independent. She won by 2.4 points in 2018. Biden barely won in 2020 (11,000) and Trump carried the state by 3 points in 2016. Sinema, if she runs, will be in a three-way race as an Independent with Republican and Democratic opponents. All three rating agencies call it a toss-up election.

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