Tuesday, November 3, 2020

A New Poll in Colorado Shows Democrats Poised for Big Wins in the 2020 Election. Can You Trust the Numbers? – Colorado Sun

A new poll out of the field November 1 confirms what a dozen surveys over the last two months have shown. Donald Trump is down at least 10 points. Twelve in this survey to Joe Biden. And, Cory Gardner is heading for a devastating defeat of 11 points to John Hickenlooper, much like previous polls. Gardner was hoping he would be closer.

Reporter John Frank asked about the level of confidence in polls. I said in a DU forum that my level of confidence was high.

The question of whether voters can trust polls is one that Floyd Ciruli gets often. The director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver said in a recent forum that “what you see is about what you get” in terms of the national and local polls.

“I’m pretty comfortable about Colorado as to the surveys we’ve seen here,” he said.

Some observations:

  • The volume of Colorado polls by reputable firms has been abundant since Labor Day
  • The consistency of the results between the topline candidates
  • The size of the spread is well beyond the margin of error

These items lend credibility to the polls’ results.

Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (L) and Sen. Cory Gardner in the 9News/
Colorado  Politics U.S. Senate debate, CO, Oct. 13, 2020 | 9News via YouTube

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