Thursday, January 17, 2019

Is the Wall and Shutdown a Winner for Trump and Republicans?

A portion of the fence along the U.S. border with Mexico
 in Southern California | BBC World Service
President Trump is convinced his demand for wall funding and willingness to accept an extended government shutdown is a winner. In fact, the wall has never had much support beyond Trump’s core support and shutdowns are always losers due to the image of political incompetence and stories of hardship that are featured in the media.

When Trump said he welcomed blame for the shutdown, he was declaring he accepts no responsibility for the government operating and that his interest in the “wall,” which is largely political, was superior to any difficulties faced by federal workers, contractors and citizens missing services. That is a shift from the usual position of presidents and makes negotiating especially difficult. He has little urgency or willingness to compromise. Neither do the Democrats. They are convinced voters don’t want the wall and that the party in control of the government ultimately is blamed for shutdowns.

Confirming the problem for Trump and Republicans have been a host of new polls from NBC News/Wall Street Journal, CNN and Washington Post/ABC News showing the Republicans and Trump getting the blame and the wall still not popular. A PPP poll (Public Policy Polling) commissioned by a liberal interest group in states with Republican senators up for re-election, like Colorado, tracks the national polls. PPP, although a Democratic firm, has a good track record on election polling, including in Colorado. Question wording is the place to especially review for bias. Three questions reprinted at the end of the blog appear the most straightforward.
  • Trump had 40% approval (nationally he’s at 41% in
  • Who do you blame the most for the shutdown – Trump 54%, Democrats 43%
  • Support for Congress voting to re-open government without wall funding – 58%, oppose 37%
  • Keep government closed until the President gets funding for the wall – 38% agree, 58% disagree
At best, Trump’s wall has support in the low 40 percent in Colorado. When the wall is combined with the shutdown, support drops to 37 percent to 38 percent.

This political fight reinforces that Trump is mainly concerned with his base. It plays in some states, but not Colorado.

PPP Questions

Q1.: Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?
Q3.: As you may know, the federal government is currently in a shutdown. Who do you blame the most for the government shutdown: Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress?
Q5.: Would you support or oppose congress voting today to re-open the government without funding the border wall?

1 comment:

Dave Barnes said...

"It plays in some states"
Yes, like bumfuck West Virginia where the last immigrant arrived in 1780.