Monday, November 9, 2015

Republican Establishment Begins to Enter Crisis Mode

Although the Republican Party and presidential candidates are angry with NBC News, this latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is likely to be accepted as an accurate snapshot of the race (10-29-15).

Carson and Trump do not seem to be going away, which was expected by much of the Republican establishment. Along with Rubio and Cruz, the four lead in the latest poll, which seems to blend the results of the CNBC debate with the continued ascent of Ben Carson.

The last four NBC/WSJ polls show the steady improvement of Carson to the lead at 29 percent, the plateau of Donald Trump at or below the mid-20s, and consistent leadership of the second tier by Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Jeb Bush is now the straggler in the tier. The third tier has shown no movement, with the exception of Carly Fiorina’s bump up after the October debate, but it appeared to quickly decay.

The post-debate NBC News SurveyMonkey poll showed a very angry Republican electorate, which judged Cruz the overall debate winner with 24 percent, Rubio second at 20 percent, with Carson (15%) and Trump (17%) closely following. Importantly, Trump wins “best at handling the economy” hands down at 41 percent.

Nearly half (48%) of Republican voters are very dissatisfied with how Washington works and they mostly supported Trump and Carson. Trump is stronger with men and Tea Party supporters and Carson wins Evangelicals and “very conservative” voters and does better with women than Trump.

Why don’t the bottom tier candidates quit? Three reasons:
  • The brief Trump and Carson can’t or won’t win the nomination. They will implode (becoming less likely as time passes) or the polls will show they will destroy the entire ticket and the establishment will revolt (possible).
  • Independent money PACs (Citizens United) have given campaigns, even weak ones, enough cash to get to the first few nominating events; i.e., into early March.
  • An optimist belief that lightning could strike and an opponent collapses or a debate-type breakout occurs.


Dave Barnes said...

They are all fucknuts.
Well, maybe not Jim Gilmore.

Unknown said...

Frankly, more than a few of us in COS are eager to see our impotent and insular R party get their comeuppance. Trump/Sanders/Carson are a big thumb in the eye of the establishments (R or D) and for that reason alone, have our vote.