Wednesday, October 16, 2024

First Friday Breakfast - Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On November 8, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a post-election panel to analyze what happened and what’s next. Dean Paul Teske and Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will lead the discussion with a panel of political leaders.

The First Friday Breakfast will review the results to the extent known, if not known the likely path of a final decision and what the result will be for American democracy.

Paul Teske and Floyd Ciruli

Paul Teske, Dean, CU Denver School of Public Affairs
Floyd Ciruli, Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend the panel here.

First Friday Breakfast
Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead
Friday, November 8, 2024 7:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Will Voters OK Billion Dollar Bonds for Colorado’s Schools?

Corey Elementary School in DenverCorey Elementary School in Denver - Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Pos

Nearly $7 billion in new bonds are being proposed by school boards around Colorado. DPS, Aurora Public Schools and Cherry Creek have record requests for more money. Voters have been generous with school districts in the past but this year has some special challenges along with a general unhappiness with government

“All government has suffered from a trust crisis,” Ciruli said. “Schools, I think, have the same problem.”

Affordability
In an interview with Denver Post reporter Jessica Seaman, I pointed out this is a difficult year to ask for record funding after raucous legislative sessions on rising property taxes and frequent complaints from voters about the affordability of living in the Denver Metro area.

“Coloradoans increasingly are worried about whether they can afford to live here, which, in turn, could make tax measures on the ballot less appealing to voters this year. This is especially so in Denver, where there are other ballot measures that, if approved, would increase the city’s sales tax,” said pollster Floyd Ciruli.

Douglas County
Douglas County, which is asking for nearly a half a billion dollars, lost a similar bond request last year. Ciruli noted the changes in Douglas County. “While the conservative electorate could make it difficult for a bond measure to pass,” he said, “there is a lot of unity in terms of the board and the superintendent in favor of this, and it certainly helps.”

Denver County
Denver’s school board just went through a difficult election around school safety and board dysfunction. “Although three new members – John Youngquist, Kimberlee Sia and Marlene De La Rosa – were elected to the DPS board last year, critics don’t believe there’s been enough change in district leadership, including in the role of superintendent,” Ciruli said.

High Taxes
“Although potential challenge that DPS will face in getting voters to approve its bond proposal is that there are two other measures on the ballot, one to financially help Denver Health and the other to fund affordable housing, that would increase the city’s sales tax rate if approved,” Ciruli said. “This has created an unusual amount of talk in Denver about how “taxes are getting high,” he said. “It creates an affordability problem.”

“Districts’ argument that their bond proposals won’t increase property taxes works in their favor, but they are still facing voters who are concerned generally about the economy and inflation – and this means the economic environment is not as “generous” as in previous years,” Ciruli said.

READ ARTICLE:
Colorado school districts want voters to OK billions for new buildings and maintenance. It may be a tough sell.

RELATED:
DPS Election Critical for Denver’s Reputation 10/20/23
Denver Post: Voters Send Message to DPS - Change 11/10/23

Friday, October 11, 2024

Harris is Projected to Win Colorado by Ten Points or More

Vice President Kamala Harris shakes Donald Trump's Hand at Presidental Debate
Photo: Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Colorado by 11 points which is unlikely to be altered by Trumps trip to Aurora (53% Harris, 42% Trump) (poll by Keating Research Inc. 9/14/24). In 2020, Joe Biden won Colorado by 13 points. Earlier this year, when Biden was behind by 2 points or more national polls, he would have still won Colorado but by a diminished 7 or 8 points or about half his 2020 win.

Today, Harris is near a very substantial win in spite of only being ahead of the popular vote by 2 points. That should be comforting for Yadira Caraveo, Democratic Congressman, in a very difficult reelection campaign in Colorado 8th District.

Biden and Harris Beat Trump in CO

RELATED:
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today 02/14/24
Biden’s Colorado Win Cut in Half 02/21/24

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

California: Law and Order is Back

Nathan Hochman (left) and George Gascón Photos: Nathan Hochman for LA County District Attorney/Campaign ad via YouTube; Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

Two recent polls show Los Angeles’ liberal reform District Attorney, George Gascón, is losing his reelection by more than two to one. He is trailing his opponent, Nathan Hockman, by 24 points (44% to 20%). Gascón, a Democrat in an overwhelmingly Democratic city, has been behind in several polls for months. There is still a third of the electorate undecided. A new LA Times poll by Berkeley IGS shows Gascón behind 51 percent to 21 percent. The USC/CSU Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona poll of September 30 was sponsored by Channel 2, NBC.

The same pollsters show getting tough on crime is the public’s position today, with 60% of LA voters supporting Proposition 36’s goal to increase penalties for retail theft and crimes involving fentanyl (Berkeley IGS) (58% support Prop. 36 on USC et al. poll).

Law and Order

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Early Voting Begins – Harris Ahead in Popular Vote

Steve Kornacki explains why Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are focused on PennsylvaniaSteve Kornacki explains why Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are focused on Pennsylvania

As early voting begins in Colorado and many states, the race remains too close to call – the same as it was on September 20 when this analysis was last published. The election remains polarized into two nearly equal camps and opinions are being rigidly maintained in spite of hundreds of millions in advertising and dozens of candidate events weekly.

Kamala Harris is winning the popular vote by 2 percent, similar to the Democratic wins in the last two elections. But the latest polls from the seven battleground states are within the margin of error and frequently shift with each new poll. As of today, Harris is ahead in 3 states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, and tied in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Democrats appear to be losing the U.S. Senate due to the expected loss of West Virginia and being behind in Montana. Analysts believe control of the House is a toss-up but that Democrats have slight advantage.

Oct 7 PollBattleground States October 7

Presidential Polls
Above are polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

WATCH:
Kornacki on Meet the Press Oct 6, 2024

RELATED:
Harris Wins the Debate But the Race is Close Sept 20, 2024

Monday, October 7, 2024

What Voters Need to Know: Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

As voting begins, threats to ballot security loom larger. CU Denver’s School of Public Affairs is hosting a public event October 25th featuring election administration officials and academic experts on the dangers of disinformation, misinformation and ongoing threats to a fair and secure election.

Colorado’s 63 elected Clerks and Recorders are the state’s election officials on the front line. They have been given the important responsibility of administering local, state, and federal elections and ensuring they are safe, fair and accurate. However, since the 2020 election, the job has become the focus of a significant amount of misinformation, disinformation and threats of interference.

Discussing misinformation and election security will be:

Deserai Anderson Crow, professor, School of Public Affairs
Matt Crane, Director of the Colorado County Clerk’s Association, former Arapahoe County Clerk

The early evening event will begin at 5:30 pm at the downtown Denver Campus.

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend the discussion (in person or virtually) here.

Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration
Friday, October 25, 2025 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Caraveo Reelection in Danger

Yadira Caraveo and Gabe EvansYadira Caraveo and Gabe Evans

A new poll confirms the observation of most political analysts, Yadira Caraveo’s Democratic House seat is in danger of loss to Republican Gabe Evans. The poll shows a 44% to 44% split, with independent voters preferring Evans by 43% to 35%. She wins Hispanic voters by 9 points, 42% to 33%.

The seat had been shifted to toss-up from “lean” Democrat by the Crystal Ball rating service in early August.

Colorado Congressional Seat Shifts

The district was designed in the 2020 redistricting to be competitive and Caraveo barely won her 2022 inaugural election. She failed to establish much of a political presence the last two years and lags in favorability in the poll 49% for Evans, a one term state legislator, to 43% for her.

The poll was published by Fox 31 / Channel 2/ Emerson College (n 525 ± 42 points)

Colorado Congressional Districts, 118th CongressTwotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

RELATED:
Caraveo Moved to Toss-Up Aug 8 2024