Monday, November 4, 2024

Race Tight. Harris Now Behind.

Election workers sort ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center on Nov. 9, 2022, in Phoenix. Photo by John Moore | Getty ImagesElection workers sort ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center on Nov. 9, 2022, in Phoenix. Photo by John Moore | Getty Images

In a last snapshot before election day, Kamala Harris lost the lead (October 26, 2024) she held since early September in popular vote and is now behind by a fraction in most of the battleground states to Donald Trump. If the RCP aggregate of polls is accurate, she could lose both the popular and electoral vote to Trump. Other aggregators, such as 538 have Harris up one or two points. And most observers point out, she could win, depending on many factors, especially turnout and late deciders.

I will be making several presentations as to what caused the shift, when will the election be decided and what’s next for American politics and policy.

Oct 26 poll

Presidential Polls
Above are polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

Friday, November 1, 2024

Fox News Interview with Harris – KOA Morning Show

Bret Baier and Kamala HarrisBret Baier and Kamala Harris. Photo: Fox News
KOA

My comments with Marty and Jeana after the Fox News interview with Kamala Harris conducted by Bret Baier (October 12, 2024).

I pointed out most post-interview news stories featured the word “contentious” prominently. It was more like a debate, with Baier asking the most aggressive RNC-type questions. For example, a significant amount of time was spent on immigration, with frequent interruptions as Harris spoke. For Baier, the audience of one was Donald Trump, who criticized Fox News for even allowing an interview.

It is unlikely to have much effect on the election outcome but she was praised by Democrats and some media for having gone into a hostile forum and attacked Donald Trump repeatedly.

The audience is largely Republican and some Democrats, especially men, a group she has tried to win over but not shown much quantifiable result. Her message was Trump is unfit to be president and people who worked with him say so.

Is Colorado’s Direct Democracy Working?

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On Friday, October 11, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs hosted a panel of media and political experts to examine Colorado’s Direct Democracy Produce a Torrent of Proposals. Participants (in person and online) joined the panel with extensive questions and discussion.

The panel, moderated by pollster and Senior Fellow Floyd Ciruli, recalled the appeal of direct democracy to voters who have historically believed there are problems legislators don’t address and a ballot initiative can be a solution. But today, polls record many are concerned by the volume and complexity of the proposals, and 2024 is an example of the issue. Fourteen propositions crowd the ballot ranging from animal rights to guns and from abortion to criminal justice and education. Some, in particular the election reform measures, if passed, represent significant changes to public policy which is not necessarily evident in the ballot wording.

The panelists pointed out a number of difficulties with direct democracy. Denver City Councilman Kevin Flynn and State Legislative Economist Greg Sobetski, related their knowledge of how government-elected officials and staff try to improve the initiative process. The media panelists, Denver Post opinion columnist Krista Kafer and reporter Seth Klamann, pointed out the background story of initiatives. Kafer and Flynn, in particular, were critical of the decisions being forced on a public that often hears “just slogans.”

The panelists were: Seth Klamann, reporter Denver Post, covering statehouse, policy and elections
Kevin Flynn, Denver City Councilman, District 2 (southwest), former Rocky Mountain news reporter
Krista Kafer, opinion columnist The Denver Post
Greg Sobetski, chief economist for Legislative Council with Colorado General Assembly
Floyd Ciruli, panel moderator, pollster, Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Panelists

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website
for more information on the November 8 First Friday Breakfast:
What Happened and What Lies Ahead
panel here

READ:
CU Denver Panel Reviews Our Tumultuous Election Year Oct. 3, 2024

Thursday, October 31, 2024

First Friday Breakfast

Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead


CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On November 8, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a post-election panel to analyze what happened and what’s next. Dean Paul Teske and Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will lead the discussion with a panel of political leaders.

The First Friday Breakfast will review the results of the Presidential election to the extent known, the likelihood and path of a final decision if not known, and what the result will be for American democracy. Also discussed, Colorado’s 8th Congressional District results, which may decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The myriad of state ballot propositions, including criminal justice, animal rights, abortion, education, and a dramatic change of state election rules and what it means for Colorado in 2025 will be examined.

Political leaders joining the discussion are:
State Senator Chris Hansen
State Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer

panelists

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

First Friday Breakfast
Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead
Friday, November 8, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Monday, October 21, 2024

Orange County Top Congressional Battleground

U.S. Senate candidates Rep. Adam Schiff, left, and Republican Steve GarveyU.S. Senate candidates Rep. Adam Schiff, left, and Republican Steve Garvey. Photo by Damian Dovarganes, AP Photo

In the recent IGS Berkeley poll for the U.S. Senate race, the election in Orange County is tied while Democrat Adam Schiff is beating Steve Garvey by 17 points (53% to 36%) statewide. The polling tie reflects the recent competitive political environment in O.C. The county has two of the country’s most competitive House races in Republican Michelle Steel’s coastal district (CD45) and Irvine/UCI-centered former Congressperson Katie Porter’s open seat (CD 47).

Orange County Presidential, Senate + Gubernatorial Race in California

Although Joe Biden won the county in 2020 by 7 points (53% to 46%), the 2022 senate race was a near tie between Alex Padilla and Mark Meuser, and Gavin Newsom lost the governor’s race (48% to 52%) to Brian Dahle, who only got 41 percent statewide.

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

First Friday Breakfast - Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On November 8, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a post-election panel to analyze what happened and what’s next. Dean Paul Teske and Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will lead the discussion with a panel of political leaders.

The First Friday Breakfast will review the results to the extent known, if not known the likely path of a final decision and what the result will be for American democracy.

Paul Teske and Floyd Ciruli

Paul Teske, Dean, CU Denver School of Public Affairs
Floyd Ciruli, Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend the panel here.

First Friday Breakfast
Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead
Friday, November 8, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Will Voters OK Billion Dollar Bonds for Colorado’s Schools?

Corey Elementary School in DenverCorey Elementary School in Denver - Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Pos

Nearly $7 billion in new bonds are being proposed by school boards around Colorado. DPS, Aurora Public Schools and Cherry Creek have record requests for more money. Voters have been generous with school districts in the past but this year has some special challenges along with a general unhappiness with government

“All government has suffered from a trust crisis,” Ciruli said. “Schools, I think, have the same problem.”

Affordability
In an interview with Denver Post reporter Jessica Seaman, I pointed out this is a difficult year to ask for record funding after raucous legislative sessions on rising property taxes and frequent complaints from voters about the affordability of living in the Denver Metro area.

“Coloradoans increasingly are worried about whether they can afford to live here, which, in turn, could make tax measures on the ballot less appealing to voters this year. This is especially so in Denver, where there are other ballot measures that, if approved, would increase the city’s sales tax,” said pollster Floyd Ciruli.

Douglas County
Douglas County, which is asking for nearly a half a billion dollars, lost a similar bond request last year. Ciruli noted the changes in Douglas County. “While the conservative electorate could make it difficult for a bond measure to pass,” he said, “there is a lot of unity in terms of the board and the superintendent in favor of this, and it certainly helps.”

Denver County
Denver’s school board just went through a difficult election around school safety and board dysfunction. “Although three new members – John Youngquist, Kimberlee Sia and Marlene De La Rosa – were elected to the DPS board last year, critics don’t believe there’s been enough change in district leadership, including in the role of superintendent,” Ciruli said.

High Taxes
“Although potential challenge that DPS will face in getting voters to approve its bond proposal is that there are two other measures on the ballot, one to financially help Denver Health and the other to fund affordable housing, that would increase the city’s sales tax rate if approved,” Ciruli said. “This has created an unusual amount of talk in Denver about how “taxes are getting high,” he said. “It creates an affordability problem.”

“Districts’ argument that their bond proposals won’t increase property taxes works in their favor, but they are still facing voters who are concerned generally about the economy and inflation – and this means the economic environment is not as “generous” as in previous years,” Ciruli said.

READ ARTICLE:
Colorado school districts want voters to OK billions for new buildings and maintenance. It may be a tough sell.

RELATED:
DPS Election Critical for Denver’s Reputation 10/20/23
Denver Post: Voters Send Message to DPS - Change 11/10/23