Will More Funding Be Directed to Colorado Water Projects?

Betting kiosk in Monarch casino | Photo by Kevin Simpson, The Colorado Sun

Colorado voters may be asked to direct more sports gaming revenue to water conservation projects.

Jerd Smith of Fresh Water News reports on new legislation with bipartisan support including House speaker Julie McCluskie that will refer a ballot issue to voters in November. It will shift any gaming revenue over a $29 million cap in the original ballot proposition to water projects.

I said the measure should pass with leadership support and that voters are likely to be supportive.

1. Voters are concerned about water conservation
2. The measure would not expand gaming or increase taxes
   • Gaming interests (Fan Duel or DraftKings) are not opposed
   • Environmental interests appear supportive

“While the original sports betting ballot measure received tepid support, the tax question, if it makes the ballot, may win broader support due to ongoing voter concerns about water conservation and protection and the high-profile crisis on the drought- stressed Colorado River, veteran pollster and political analyst Floyd Ciruli said.

“I have not seen any polls that negate what we knew strongly back then, that water conservation and water protection are environmental issues that Coloradans care strongly about,” he said."

Link to article: Colorado voters may be asked to send more sports betting money to water projects

Gen Z Bails on Israel

Anti-war protestors confront Federal troops in Grant park. Illinois, Chicago. USA. 1968.
Photo © Raymond Depardon | Magnum Photos

Riots helped elect Nixon in 1968. Can Trump benefit from fear and loathing too?

The latest New York Times/Siena poll reinforces the new political reality that Americans under 30 years old, or Generation Z, are more sympathetic to Palestinians than Israel in its conflict. By a three to one ratio, 18 to 29 year old voters favor Palestinians over Israelis. Adults, 45 years old and above (Generation X and Baby Boomers) are three to one in favor of Israel, the inverse of younger voters.

The particular problem for President Biden is that Gen Z was assumed to be a part of the Democratic coalition. Biden needs this conflict to resolve soon and fade into background. If it doesn’t imagine Chicago.

Campus Protests Helped Elect Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon

Protesters at UCLA in front of Royce Hall
Photo by David Crane/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images

Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, know that campus protests are a law and order issue for many voters. And as protesters become more disruptive and aggressive, they can become as big an issue as urban crime and the border for Republicans.

In 1966, Ronald Reagan in his first gubernatorial campaign, blamed incumbent governor Pat Brown of being soft on crime (Watts Riots) and coddling radicals (UC Berkeley).

Richard Nixon presented himself in 1968 as the candidate of social stability in the face of national upheaval, highlighted by the youth counterculture, students anti-war protests, and urban riots.

Although the law and order issue helped elect Republican candidates, it didn’t stop the protests. Two years later, on May 4, 1970, a National Guard shooting at a Kent State campus anti-war protest ignited a national student action that closed many colleges, including in California, for up to six weeks.

Iran – A Threat

President Biden chairs National Security meeting with Secretary of State Blinken, Secretary of Defense Austin, CIA Director Burns, and National Security Advisor Sullivan
Photo provided by The White House/Handout via Reuters

Iran has been considered a threat by Americans for decades. Along with imprisoning 53 Americans for 444 days in 1979, Iran expresses aggressive anti-Western ideology, actively supports and frequently applauds Islamic terrorist acts especially in the Middle East, and is now strongly aligning with Russia and China in anti-U.S. positions.

In a 2024 Gallup poll, 81 percent of Americans rated Iran unfavorably and 70 percent considered it having nuclear weapons a threat to U.S. vital interests.

Although U.S. policies have become more conflicted on helping Israel in its war with Hamas (two-thirds of Democrats-no weapons transfers to Israel for Hamas war), the vast majority of Americans (67%) support Israel in a confrontation with Iran. Only 32 percent would provide no support to Israel.

Wildfire – a Threat to Orange Counties’ Fire Vulnerable Areas

Laguna Hills Brush Fire | Photo: CNN

Orange County has major wildfires on a regular basis. From the 1993 Laguna Fire that destroyed more than 250 homes and evacuated 24,000 residents of the city to the more recent Coast Fire in 2022 that destroyed 20 homes (see picture above), the county has a host of vulnerable non-urban areas next to canyons, mountain, and wildlands. County fire authorities have identified 10 high fire hazard areas that are endangered with larger, faster, more frequent blazes fueled by buildup of vegetation, the drying warmer climate and well- known Santa Ana winds.

In a 2023 Ciruli Associates survey of Orange County, more residents in high fire zones (59%) were likely to believe wildfire was the county’s top environmental problem compared to the countywide average (51%) or residents in non-high-fire zones (49%).

Not surprising, twice as many reported (30% to 13%) having been evacuated from their homes. However, similar percentages of county wide residents said their property would be damaged by a wildfire if there was a threat and high fire area residents were similar to overall county residents in believing additional response to wildfires was needed.

The survey concerning wildfire was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1,000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. Of these, a subsample of 135 were identified as residents of high-risk fire regions. Areas identified were in Laguna Beach, Irvine, Anaheim, Newport, San Juan Capistrano, Mission Viejo, and Coto de Caza. The entire survey had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence.

For more information contact Floyd Ciruli at fciruli@aol.com.

Independents & Climate Change

Orange County Coast

Independent party identification is rapidly increasing nationally and in Orange County. Independents in the U.S. have risen from about a third of the electorate early in this century to 43 percent today while both Democratic & Republican identification declined from a third to 27 percent, according to Gallup’s latest poll.

Locally, Orange County voter registration historically Republican dominated, has also shifted to a near tie among partisans – Democrats 37 percent, Republicans 33 percent, with no party preference climbing to 28 percent from 15 percent in 2004.

In an Orange County survey conducted in August 2023, residents of different party preferences had similar views on top two environmental problems in the County (see table below) which were wildfire and water supply. However, their views divide dramatically related to climate change, the third most frequently rated issue. There was a 43 percent difference between Democrats and Republicans in the highly polarized issue, with Democrats much more likely to rate it a top problem (65%) and Republicans much less (22%). At 38 percent, No Party Preference are near the mean (42%) but leaned toward the Republican view (see table).

The survey concerning fire prevention and mitigation was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. It had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

For more information contact Floyd Ciruli at fciruli@aol.com

Doug Kemper - Educator

Colorado River in Glenwood Canyon | Photo: PPIC

Doug Kemper, after 20 years of leadership of the Colorado Water Congress, has just announced his retirement. Kemper has been a tireless advocate for the state’s water rights. He skillfully managed Colorado’s always complex and sometimes fraught water laws, development and interests.

He was especially good as an educator, conducting highly interesting and thought-provoking statewide conferences twice a year in person and on Zoom. It has become the go-to event for water professionals to network and gain critical information.

The challenge of maintaining a sustainable water supply for Colorado’s citizens, economy and environment has been enhanced by Kemper’s effective leadership.

Good job Doug.