Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Could Sanders Win Colorado Caucus?

March 1st – Super Tuesday – is not a delegate-rich environment for Bernie Sanders. Colorado and Minnesota have the only caucuses and Sanders’s home of Vermont and Massachusetts are the most liberal states. But most of the territory is southern or border states where Sanders will have to contend with older and more minority dominated Democratic electorates.

Colorado will clearly be a state he hopes to win. Not only are the demographics hospitable, but Barack Obama swept the state early in 2008 on his successful run to the White House.

After Clinton wins in the Iowa and Nevada caucuses, even if near death experiences, it’s clear that Sanders needs some victories to remain viable. Although Clinton’s Nevada win was five points, it was mostly secured in Clark County, with labor delivering minority voters. Sanders was able to motivate a surge of younger voters and some Hispanic voters (according to exit polls) to shift the race from an expected “firewall” blowout for Clinton to a panic attack the last five days.

But, he still has a problem with minority voters, especially middle-aged and older voters who are most likely to participate in party nominations.

A new Colorado poll published by conservative paper, The Washington Free Beacon, claims Sanders is now ahead of Clinton among Colorado Democrats who participate in party primaries. Although, caucus goers will likely be only a modest percentage of total primary voters. (In the last high-profile contest, Democratic Party had 338,000 turnout. If 100,000 caucus on Tuesday, it will be a big turnout.)

A previous poll by Quinnipiac had Clinton ahead by 28 points. So there’s not much doubt that Colorado is a competitive race and Clinton will have a major task to turnout her supporters.

There are 79 delegates, 66 pledged and 13 super delegates (party and elected officials). Peter Blake in Complete Colorado claims nine are committed to Clinton, four uncommitted and zero for Sanders.

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