Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Clinton in Trouble in Colorado – 9-KUSA

As affirmed by the Quinnipiac Colorado poll, Hillary Clinton is not having a good summer, and it’s mostly all about her and her party, not some external force, such as a “vast rightwing conspiracy.” In fact, Republicans are more likely to be criticizing Donald Trump than Clinton.

Since Clinton announced on April 12, she has suffered a steady erosion of support. Although she is still ahead of the Republican field nationally, the latest Quinnipiac poll (July 20) shows her behind the three top Republicans in Colorado.

Brandon Rittiman and I discussed the latest Quinnipiac Colorado Poll showing Hillary Clinton losing to the top Republican candidates.
“It is either a harbinger that Colorado is indicating a potential decline [for Clinton] that we’re going to see in national polls or this is an outlier,” 9NEWS political analyst Floyd Ciruli said. “It’s one or the other.”
There have been three Quinnipiac polls in Colorado this year and the trend lines have not been positive for Clinton. Her favorability and trust numbers have dropped.

Clinton’s favorability rating dropped 9 points since February. She has more people who view her unfavorably as favorably.

Clinton’s e-mail and other troubles earlier in the year have merged into a common theme that she is untrustworthy, which when placed in the context of the Bill and Hillary White House years, is a memory that is sapping much of the enthusiasm for her candidacy. On the issue of trust, Clinton slid 4 points since April after her informal (video) entrance into the race (the question was not asked in February). The positive-to-negative rating was abysmal in April and is now worse. Nearly twice as many people say they don’t trust her as do.

The more Hillary Clinton campaigns, the worse she does. Partially, it’s a reflection of the division in the Democratic Party, with its deep liberal base vs. nearly all the rest of the party. Bernie Sanders is receiving their attention.

Head-to-Head Comparison
The poll compared three of the top Republican candidates in a head-to-head with Clinton. Her losses ranged from 5 points with Jeb Bush to 9 points against Scott Walker. The loss in a swing state like Colorado was national news and led to considerable speculations as to the state of her campaign.

As the chart shows, Governor Walker moved up 7 points since February and Clinton down 4. Walker carried the independents in this poll by 11 points. Bush’s most significant problem was only attracting 82 percent of Republican identifiers whereas Walker carried 90 percent and Rubio 89 percent.

In the current RealClearPolitics.com national head-to-head report, she beats Bush by 6 points, Walker by 11 and Rubio by 8. And in the Republican nomination lineup, Donald Trump is now the frontrunner with 18 points, Bush second with 13, Walker 12 and Rubio fourth at 7 points.

It is not clear that this is a one day story or this poll reinforces a trend that will begin to show up in national polls.

9-News: Paul shines, Clinton loses steam in Colorado 
9-News: Clinton trails GOP candidates in early Colorado poll
Denver Post: Poll: Early lead for Hillary Clinton in Colorado disappears

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