The Obama Policy of Restraint – What’s Next in American Foreign Policy?

Two hundred of the world’s leading public opinion experts gathered in Nice, France, September 5 and 6, to share new data and analyses concerning the profession and public opinion trends.

Among the major topics was the expected close vote related to Scottish independence, a major blow to Great Britain. The second was the NATO meeting in Scotland that was focused on the latest foreign policy challenge from Russia and ISIS.

DU’s Crossley Center of Public Opinion Research presented a paper entitled: The Obama Policy of Restraint – What’s Next in American Foreign Policy?, which drew considerable interest and discussion.

The topic proposal for the World Association of Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) was drafted last winter as Vladimir Putin was annexing the Crimea (March 18). The action of the Obama administration the last week has highlighted this discussion as part of today’s news.

WAPOR Proposal

In 2009, Barack Obama begun his presidency and foreign policy with immense fanfare and high levels of support from the world public and the capitals of major powers. Today, that support is muted and criticism from world leaders is growing. World opinion has swung from relief over the end of the unilateral “cowboy” policy of President George W. Bush to anxiety over the perceived reluctant and hesitant policies of President Obama.

A similar shift is noticeable in American public opinion.  After the expansive military and democracy-building policies and rhetoric of the post-9/11 era, America welcomed the withdrawal from two active wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and preferred a focus on domestic issues. But recently, public disenchantment appears to be growing over America’s position in the world. Support for President Obama’s diplomatic strategies in Syria and Iran is low, and domestic foreign policy critics have intensified their opposition.

Is American foreign policy reaching a new inflection point where the recent non-intervention and restrained policies of the Obama administration are being effectively challenged or will there be another decade of American non-intervention?

The conclusion of the presentation was:

• Foreign policy has become a significant issue among political elites and could effect the 2014 midterms and will definitely effect 2016 presidential
• The post-Cold War and 9/11 era has finally started and America is now deep in the debate over the nature of that new world and its role
• The administration is in a defensive position and being pulled into a more militaristic stance
• Events and the leadership dialogue (2016 election) will shape war-wary public opinion
• Many of Obama’s principles will survive, but there will be a new synthesis and it will be more strategic