Monday, August 25, 2014

The Gender Divide: Men Favor Gardner as Much as Women Favor Udall

A gender gap has been a steady advantage for the Democrats in the Obama era. Recent analyses of gender differences among partisans show a difference of 12 points and a gap benefitting the Democrats of 6 points (Center for American Women and Politics, June 2014).

The gender differences has been around and measured since the early 1980s (Reagan era) and has grown in recent years. Two of the most recent Colorado senate polls reflect that gender divide. Both taken in mid-July and both show the senate race close, and Senator Mark Udall has a significant advantage among women. But, the reason the race is so close in these polls is that Congressman Cory Gardner has just as big an advantage with men.

There is a gender difference of 29 points in the PPP poll. Udall has a 14-point advantage with women and Gardner wins men by 15 points, which means the gender gap is 1 point and it favors Gardner. Similarly with the Quinnipiac poll, the gender difference was smaller, only 21 points, but again Gardner won the gap by 3 points. He had a 12-point advantage with men compared to Udall’s 9-point advantage with women.

In these two polls, there is indeed a gender difference and women favor the Democrats. But, Mark Udall is losing men by even more. Although the gender gap is favoring Gardner, Udall may still win more votes than Gardner because more women will vote than men.

Pew Research: The gender gap: Three decades old, as wide as ever Wall Street Journal: Male-female split on economic issues promises to shape midterm elections

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