Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Donald Trump Will Not be the Republican Nominee

Donald Trump believed his personality and a multi-candidate field would deliver him the nomination.

News flash, his personal image is one of the most disliked in modern American presidential political history (post WWII), and the seventeen-candidate field is now down to four: Trump, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and unpledged delegates.

Trump’s arrogance led him to believe he didn’t need any real preparation for close media scrutiny. “I read newspapers” and “have common sense” has not proven sufficient to answer questions on social issues, like abortion, or foreign policy issues, like nuclear arms and alliances. Being politically incorrect on immigration and terrorism didn’t seem to hurt him, but favoring nuclear proliferation, opposing American alliances and being clueless on abortion politics is finally driving down his support. The economy was his strength and his undisciplined campaign chatter on non-economic issues has been a major distraction.

The loss of Wisconsin reinforces Trump’s difficulty of winning before the convention. Consistently 60 to 65 percent of the party is opposed to his nomination, and today, even more adamantly. A contested convention with possible multiple ballots is becoming a near certainty.

Edward R. Murrow
Hence, his lack of convention delegate strategy is his most serious failing as it will doom his candidacy. Because most of the delegates to the Republican convention will be party regulars, they are not likely to support outsider Donald Trump on second and subsequent ballots. In a few states, like Colorado, which avoided a preference poll or primary, delegates are mostly either going to support Ted Cruz as the conservative who has worked for months to recruit delegates or they will remain unpledged.

Most Republican delegates will be released after the first ballot in Cleveland and will not support Trump on later votes, both because he looks like a general election disaster and because he is an unpredictable maverick.

To paraphrase Edward R. Murrow: Good night Donald and good luck.

The above table represents the best estimates in an ongoing process with many moving parts. A variety of sources were used to find the delegate numbers, with most credible sources reporting them. The candidates could add to their delegate totals by winning over delegates pledged to other candidates and those elected unpledged.

Read The Buzz:
Trump coming to Colorado – Too late
Colorado Republicans help stop Trump – 9KUSA, Balance of Power
9KUSA – Four reasons Cruz leads in Colorado’s pledged delegates

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