Monday, March 10, 2014

Do Republicans Win Senate?

The intramural debate among the D.C. commentators about the control of the Senate in 2015 appears to
have shifted to Republicans as the likely winners, with the possibility of adding seats in the House.

The rapid, but successful, entrance by Congressman Cory Gardner into the Colorado Senate race happened just as a consensus was developing that Republicans had the advantage due to the states in play and the drag of the President’s approval numbers and the ACA.

National Journal. Congressional Democrats Face Uphill Battle in Midterms, Charlie Cook, 3-3-14

“What’s changed is that Democrats’ chances of holding onto their majority in the Senate is looking increasingly tenuous. There are now at least 10, and potentially as many as 13, Democratic-held seats in jeopardy. By contrast, only two GOP seats are in any meaningful danger, and that number hasn’t changed in six months.”

“Udall became the latest addition to the list when GOP Rep. Cory Gardner announced his candidacy Saturday.”

National Journal. The Hotline’s Senate Race Rankings: Republicans in Command, Steven Shepard and Julie Sobel, 2-27-14

“Republicans are well positioned to win a Senate majority in 2014. A favorable map, combined with a positive national environment driven by disapproval of the health care law, have put Democrats on the defensive.”

“The 2014 Senate landscape continues to look challenging for Democrats. Republicans can take back the chamber after eight years of Democratic control with a net gain of six seats, and the seven seats most likely to flip are held by Democrats in states President Obama lost in 2012.”

“Seats 8 to 12 are also close to 50/50 races. Colorado debuts in this tier after the top recruit, Rep. Cory Gardner, decided to run. In seats 13 to 15, the Democratic incumbent is likely to retain control of the seat, although the races bear watching – and Republicans don’t’ need seats 13 to 15 to wrestle control of the majority.”

Huffington Post. Why 2014 Could be a Very Democratic Election, Curtis Gans, 2-25-14

Series of factors that could lead to Democrats winning House seats and retaining the Senate.

Real Clear Politics. How Likely are Democrats to Lose the Senate? Sean Trende, 2-20-14

Democrats will lose in Monte Carlo simulation. Obama’s approval and poll in states. Democrats lose 7 to 9 seats.

New York Post. Fresh Hope for GOP to Take Over Senate, John Podhoretz, 2-20-14

Seat-by-seat analysis.  “No one debated the GOP would come close or better than close to a Senate takeover in November. But every day, the map looks more favorable for the Republicans.”

The Cook Political Report. The Obama Factor, Charlie Cook, 2-9-14

Midterm elections tend to be a referendum on the incumbent president, but Republicans have had a difficult time beating Democrats and managed to lose many close races.

Reuters. Here’s the Republican Path to Taking Back the Senate, Brett Logiurato, 2-7-14

Automated polls from American Crossroads show Republicans ahead in their Democratic incumbent states: Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana. Republicans are ahead in Michigan and Montana, tied in North Carolina and behind by five points in New Hampshire.

Washington Post. Republicans Have a 44% Chance of Taking the Senate. But it May be Much Higher, John Sides, 1-27-14

Democrats 56% chance to hold the Senate. But the model gives the Republicans a 64% chance if more recent data set is used.

Model uses: Obama approval, GDP, type of election (general or midterm), partisanship, incumbency, previous race

New York Times. 2014 Election Likely to Keep Capital’s Split, Carl Hulse, 1-26-14

Democrats will lose Senate seats, but six is unlikely.

Real Clear Politics. Why the 2014 Senate Races Matter so Much, Sean Trende, 1-23-14

Republicans need to win at least 54 seats to have a very good chance to hold the Senate in 2016 due to a more difficult playing field.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Senate 2014: A Coin-Flip, Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, 1-23-14

Seat by Senate seat analysis indicates toss-up for Republicans to pick up six seats. Conditions far improved by this analysis.

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