As public support for the major elements of President Obama’s agenda have declined, the likelihood the 2010 mid-term election will be competitive, has gone up. July 2009 will be recorded as the end of the Obama honeymoon and the beginning of the battle for 2010.
The Gallup poll’s latest generic ballot test to measure the support levels of the two parties in the congressional election shows a 6-point Democratic lead.
Democrats had an 11-point lead in the 2006 mid-term the year they won their majority by 8 points. Democrats need a larger lead in the polls due to a typically lower turnout than Republicans on Election Day. A 6-point lead means the 2010 election could be very close.
With both party’s supporters remaining mostly loyal to their respective candidates, the key will be turnout of base and swing voters, who, at the moment, are breaking evenly between the parties, a shift from a pro-Democratic bias over the last two years.