Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Coffman vs. Carroll: Democrats’ Best Chance to Win a Seat

Democrats will not win control of the U.S. House in 2016, but they have a very good chance to pick up Colorado’s Sixth Congressional seat. An expected jump of more than 70,000 voters from 2014 will be State Senator Morgan Carroll’s greatest asset.

Barack Obama won the district by five points in 2012 compared to Mike Coffman, who barely survived a challenge from an underfinanced, inexperienced Democratic candidate. Morgan Carroll was the Democratic Senate leader for a short time, and as opposed to the Democrats’ 2014 candidate, is a local elected official.

If Hillary Clinton runs as expected, a strong race, accompanied by a well-funded Michael Bennet seeking re-election, the Democratic ticket should be a significant boost for Carroll in the Sixth District. As a woman in a targeted seat, she should have nearly unlimited funding. And as a woman running with Clinton, it could be a good year for women candidates.

Carroll will, of course, have some challenges. She is very liberal and was associated with the controversial and recalled senate Democrats of 2013. She was in charge when her party lost the Senate in 2014. And, Coffman has established himself as an indefatigable and talented campaigner.

This race will start near or at the top of the national list for a competitive seat, and it will be Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s last chance (my fourth consecutive bi-annual prediction she will retire).

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