Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Similar Message, Four Distinct Messengers – Colorado Public Radio Interview

About half the Republican primary vote has been mailed in. The party is deciding between sending a message with one of the loudest and longest running firebrands in the U.S. – Tom Tancredo – or focus more on trying to win the race for governor and importantly doing no harm after a decade of lost races.

Since 2004, the powerful, even dominant, Colorado Republican Party has lost control of both Senate seats, the governorship and both houses of the legislature, even after a mild recovery in the 2010 election.

Tancredo is the frontrunner, largely due to his base in the party’s conservative wing, his talent of getting publicity and the fact he can win with less than 30 percent of the vote due to a four-candidate race.

The winner could be governor, but will need to run a very smart campaign, and it’s unlikely Tancredo’s maverick career will attract sufficient moderate or independent voters needed to win in Colorado in 2014.

“This all plays to Mr. Tancredo’s advantage here,” Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli says. “Because to some extent all three of these candidates are dividing the non-Tancredo vote.”

Ciruli says the establishment would rather not have a firebrand like Tancredo, whose controversy could jeopardize fellow Republican Cory Gardner’s run for U.S. Senate.

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