Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Hickenlooper for President?

John Hickenlooper has been steadfast in denying any presidential interest. That’s good because the latest robo poll confirms what he knows and most observers assumed – there is little to no Colorado support for his candidacy as either a contender for the nomination or as a favorite son.  Partially, this lack of local support reflects there is little to no belief he can win the nomination, and as recent history shows, voters have lost interest in favorite son candidates.

When asked if Hickenlooper should run, he wins only 30 percent of Democrats and 19 percent of independents. Many Colorado Democrats, of course, prefer Hillary Clinton in 2016. Thirteen percent of Republicans think it’s a good idea. Those thirteen percent are mostly a mixture of a few Republican fans and a few who believe their party will nominate someone even more unacceptable. Finally, there are some who just want to get him out-of-state to reduce the damage and open the governorship up.

Very few of Colorado’s politicians have elicited much local support, even while they made the national lists and talk shows. Senator Hart had the state party’s support, but would have been unlikely to carry Colorado in 1984, and Governors Owens and Romer never caused much serious local buzz, even though they received national attention.

The general rule in Colorado politics has been that you tend to lose at least 10 points of favorability and name identification once you cross the state line.  The history has been that serving in Washington or running for president costs local support.

The Buzz:  Hickenlooper in trouble?
PPP:  Colorado voters support gay marriage

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