Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Obama Holding Narrow Lead

As of mid-September, Barack Obama is holding onto a post-convention bounce of three points (Sept. 18) in the Real Clear Politics polling average.  If the same patterns as the 2008 and 2004 elections apply, his lead today indicates a November re-election, but his vote spread is cut more than in half from his seven percent victory over John McCain in 2008.

Obama is three points ahead of Mitt Romney today, and four years ago at the same mid-September point he was eight points ahead of John McCain.

Four years ago this was the critical period for the McCain campaign as it was forced to deal with the financial meltdown – Lehman Brothers collapsed on September 15 – and the shaky media performance of Sarah Palin.

In 2004, John Kerry was slightly behind after the conventions and lost a close race that finally hinged on Ohio and about a 100,000-vote margin for G.W. Bush.
Every historical pattern is meant to be deviated from, and Romney may still alter the polling trend.  But early voting starts in about two weeks in Iowa and shortly thereafter in a half dozen toss-up states.


Bo the Iceman said...

Floyd...Why do you not include Gary Johnson or the Green Presidential Candidate on ANY o your surveys??? Not only are you doing yourself and your service a DIS-service by being inaccurate, you are also biasing the public because you only give them two choices...and they don't even sometimes KNOW there's another choice.

Floyd Ciruli said...

The surveys I have analyzed have been conducted by other polling firms for media and partisan and interest group clients. Sometimes they include third-party candidates and other times they don’t.

I just posted a blog on third-party candidates and their possible impact on the election.