Brazil and Brexit: Developed Democracies in Crises
Dilma Rousseff, one of the world’s most high-profile women leaders, is on the verge of impeachment after just winning a hard fought presidential re-election in 2014. A high-level corruption scandal and a contracting commodity-based economy are fueling the opposition. In a new Datafolha poll (N2779, April 7-8), Brazilians indicated they favor impeachment (61%) and would like a do over in a new election (79%). An impeachment vote is due April 17 in the Lower House and the President appears vulnerable.
Prime Minister David Cameron, fresh off a surprising parliamentary victory, is now in a fight to hold Britain in the European Union and keep his job. Polls show support to separate is strong and the current vote close. The June election largely depends on Cameron’s credibility, which has suffered due to the divisions in his own Conservative Party and recent revelations about offshore wealth. Brexit also benefits from ongoing criticism of Brussels and conservative opposition to the continent’s initiatives on gay rights and immigration.
Cameron’s approval rating his dropped from his post re-election 50 percent to a rock bottom 34 percent (YouGov). If voters go against the EU, Cameron’s tenure is in doubt.
Floyd Ciruli founded Ciruli Associates, a research and consulting firm specializing in public policy and research, in 1985.
Mr. Ciruli holds a law degree from Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. and a bachelor’s degree cum laude in political science from UCLA. He is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), and is the past-president of the Pacific Chapter of AAPOR (PAPOR). Mr. Ciruli is the Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies. He is an adjunct professor teaching public opinion and foreign policy. Mr. Ciruli is a board member of the Social Science Foundation of the University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies and past-president of the Georgetown Law Alumni Board.
Mr. Ciruli is widely known to Colorado audiences as a pollster and political analyst for 9-KUSA TV, KOA Radio and The Denver Post. Most recently, he has appeared on Fox News with Neil Cavuto. In September 2016, Mr. Ciruli was inducted into the Denver Press Club Hall of Fame. He hosts the state’s leading blog for politics and trends at www.fciruli.blogspot.com.