Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Hispanic Voters – How Many Vote by What Margin?

Hispanic voters are becoming a key element in Colorado politics, representing more than 10 percent of the vote and likely to double that amount in a few years (they are 20% of the population).

Most recent polls tend to give Democrats about a 20-point advantage with them. A 60-40 percent split would be about the Hispanic level of Democratic support in the 2010 midterm.

But by a number of public opinion measures, Democrats appear to have been hurt by the recent delays in immigration decisions. A number of Hispanic political leaders and opinion writers are sending, at best, warnings to the party and, in some cases, encouragement for the community to not vote to punish Democrats.

Gallup reports that among the overall population, only 15 percent of adults rate immigration important, but 25 percent of Hispanics do – their second biggest issue after the economy. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll had Hispanics approving the president by 56 percent above his 42 percent national average, but below the 62 percent approval Hispanics gave him in 2010. That gap is a measure of the decline in Hispanic enthusiasm for Democrats. And, although 62 percent said they prefer Democratic control of Congress, that is down from 90 percent in 2010.

At the very moment embattled Colorado Democrats need their base to turn out and support them, national politics may be undermining the effort.

Wall Street Journal: Frustrated Hispanics are down on this year’s midterms
Gallup: Obama’s September job approval rating among Hispanics is lowest of his administration
Pew: Neither party gets good marks from its base for handling illegal immigration

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