In the latest Colorado poll (Purple Poll, 8-14-12), only five percent of voters claim to be undecided. President Obama was ahead in the poll by three points (Obama 49% to Romney 46%).
If two million voters turn out in November 2012, only 100,000 are now the target of hundreds of thousands of dollars of campaign advertising and a dozen or more presidential visits before November 6. If 2,400,000 turn out as in 2008, 120,000 voters are now in play.
This year’s turnout will be affected by the level of interest in the race, the final registration figures and campaign get-out-the-vote efforts.
Given Colorado is a targeted, competitive state with significant TV and grassroots expenditures, a high turnout is expected, in spite of polls showing a slightly lower level of interest in the race compared to 2008.
Another four percent of voters claim they could change their minds. The campaigns are targeting both groups of undecided and possible party and candidate defectors.