Wednesday, July 18, 2012

West Most Competitive – NPR

Gallup reports that western U.S., along with the Midwest, are the most competitive areas for the presidential race.  Barack Obama has a slight advantage in each.

Within the western states considered very to somewhat competitive, Colorado is the most competitive.  Obama leads by 3 points (average of the most recent polls).

The best indicator of Colorado’s prominence in the presidential campaign is the frequency of candidate visits.  Mitt Romney has been here three times since securing the nomination, including a week ago. NPR Don Gonyea covered the visit.
GONYEA: But despite such moments, long time Colorado pollster, Floyd Ciruli, says Romney is moving cautiously at this stage in the state, avoiding so far the Denver metropolitan area.
FLOYD CIRULI: I assume this is a Maoist strategy - take the countryside and the cities will follow.
GONYEA: Polls in Colorado have given the president a narrow but consistent lead over Romney, even when bad news on the economy or other topics has hit the administration. Ciruli says Romney will need to win over suburban voters around Denver. He says those are the people who decide statewide elections here.
CIRULI: And so ultimately, that's where this battle will be and he hasn't gotten there yet.
Obama and his wife, Michelle, are even more frequent visitors, having just visited the Colorado Springs fire area and Pueblo.

Obama will contest Colorado and Nevada.  Although the campaign talks about Arizona, as of today, he is not competitive there.

One caveat:  There are few polls in many of these states and many were conducted in May or earlier.

Also see Gallup:  Midwest, West most competitive regions in 2012 U.S. election

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