Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Colorado: Obama Up by Less Than Margin of Error

Three polls in the last month confirm Colorado’s toss-up status.  President Obama is ahead by less than the margin of error in an average of the three polls maintained by the political website,

The NBC sample showing the race is one point for President Obama is the largest, but was conducted without identifying the most likely voters.

Expect the race to remain close due to the committed blocs of partisans and partisan-leaning independents being in close balance in Colorado.  The volatility is mostly a reflection of weak partisans’ and independent voters’ inclination to change positions due to campaign and other factors, such as the latest headline on the economy.

Also, polls have numerous methodological differences – some deliberately designed, some unidentified methods – that produce variation.

See The Buzz blog:  Colorado presidential race within one point in nonstop politics to conventions

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