Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Health Care - Who's Ahead?

It is still not clear if the Democrats maintain or if Republicans will gain political ground from the March 21 health care vote. Early polls appear to indicate that, while the bill and its approval is still not favored by a majority of the public, at least Democrats have increased the level of enthusiasm for voting among their core supporters.

And, of course, failure to pass was not an option. President Obama, Speak Pelosi and the Party’s reputation in general would have been devastated.

Both parties are fighting to define the post passage environment. Democrats are using Obama speeches and advertising (Congresswoman Markey is on TV in the Denver metro area) and Republicans are benefiting from Sarah Palin and the law suit challenges from the Republican attorneys general.

Gallup reports that, as of March 28, the Republicans appear to have surged ahead of Democrats in the generic ballot question, the first time in March.

As Gallup points out, Republicans only need to be close to Democrats to pick up congressional seats due to their history of stronger turnout. Years they lead in the congressional ballot test, they pick up seats – 1950, 2002 and 1994 when they won the House with a 54-seat pick up.

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