Harris Takes the Lead

Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on stage during a campaign event on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

In an extraordinary turnaround, Kamala Harris has surged into a close lead over Donald Trump in slightly over 30 days after becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee. President Joe Biden was behind two points on the date he left the race, July 21. In the month, Harris has picked a vice-president and delivered a well-regarded acceptance speech at a national convention with 26 million viewers. On August 29, she held a 2 point lead in the RCP average and 3 points in 538 (ABC News). Harris and Trump now split the battleground states, with Harris ahead in 2, Trump 3, and 2 tied. The aggregate battleground vote is tied at 47 percent each.

Robert Kennedy Jr. dropped his failed campaign effort and endorsed Trump on Friday, August 23. Prior to RFK Jr.'s switch, Harris was beating Trump by two points in 5 party tests including Kennedy. The effect of Kennedy and the Democratic convention bump is just beginning to be polled and assessed.

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

The campaign has only about two months left, with some early voting starting in October. A debate is tentatively scheduled September 10 and Harris must deal with a press corps hungry for interviews but Democrats clearly have momentum and a fresh enthusiasm.

RELATED:
Harris Takes Over – Close Race 8/6/24
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops-Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on stage during a campaign event on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

The Rush to November 5 Begins

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

In an election that has more twists and turns than Independence Pass, the 2024 campaign enters its final two months. A series of panel discussions with Colorado's top political analysts and commentators starts September 6 with an 8:30 a.m. First Friday Breakfast panel. It will bring together Floyd Ciruli, Senior Fellow at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs moderating a panel of Colorado political experts.

Other panels are on:

• October 4 - First Friday Breakfast: Latinx Voters: Hold Sway
• October 11 - Afternoon event: The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
• October 25 - Afternoon event: Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration
• November 8 - First Friday Breakfast: Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead

All events are held at

CU Denver School of Public Affairs
1380 Lawrence St., 2nd Floor
Denver, Colorado

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs' website for more information here.

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Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads Aug 27, 2024
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Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote

Vice President Harris and Democrats are now ahead of former President Donald Trump and Republicans 226 to 219 electoral votes with 93 rated toss-up. In Sabato's Crystal Ball latest analysis (August 20, 2024), the toss-up states are Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (18), Nevada (8), Arizona (11) and North Carolina (16). The race remains close but Harris has rapidly and significantly changed the electoral map. Polling can barely stay abreast with the frequent changes in the election environment. RealClearPolitics analysis still has Trump ahead 219 to 208 for Harris with 111 electoral votes to be decided.

Crystal Ball Electoral College rating

Sabato records a major reversal from 312 electoral votes in mid-July for Trump to 219 at the end of August, while Democrats climbed from 196 to 226. Both parties are short of the 270 needed to win but the Democrats now have a much better prospect. Sabato's next electoral map will be post-convention and could present more good news for the Democrats.

RELATED:
Democrats Go into Convention in Big Hole July 23, 2024

Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On September 6, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a panel of Colorado political experts: Election 2024: Colorado and the Country at a Crossroads. Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will moderate with commentators and party activists Dick Wadhams, Republican, Sheila McDonald, Democrat, and reporter Marianne Goodland.

The First Friday Breakfast will consider the changes in the national race as they affect control of Congress and Colorado's key Congressional and legislative races. The fate of the state's most contentious ballot propositions will also be examined.

Election 2024: Colorado and Country at Crossroads sponsored by the UC Denver School of Public Affairs.

Floyd Ciruli, Panel Moderator Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Panel:
Sheila MacDonald, media commentator, Democratic political consultant, manager of candidate and issue campaigns
Dick Wadhams, media commentator, Channel 4 analyst, consultant, former Republican chair
Marianne Goodland, chief legislative reporter, Colorado Politics, president of the Denver Press Club

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs' website for more information here.

"Election 2024: Colorado and the Country at a Crossroads"
September 6, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200 Denver, Colorado

Sales Tax Collection Falls Again

For the first six months of 2024, Denver metro area sales tax revenue has fallen compared to last year. This is the second year of weak sales tax collections. In 2023 it was flat from the year before.

Cities are especially dependent on sales tax revenue. A number of them, especially Denver, have been rapidly increasing their sales tax for a myriad of community projects.

It is unclear the exact cause of the revenue fall off. Metro population growth slowed after the pandemic and, in fact some counties registered population loses. Affordability has been cited most often by metro area residents as their main economic complaint and a reason to leave. Also, the Denver area could be seeing some of the job growth slowdown reflected in national data guiding the Federal Reserve.

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Denver Metro Sales Tax Revenue Declines June 24, 2024
Metro Denver Sales Tax Flattens Out March 13, 2024
Denver Metro Area Tax Revenue Slows Sharply October 2, 2023
Midpoint in the Year Sales Tax Revenue Roars In September 22, 2021

Was It a Coup? KHOW 630

U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris raise their hands during an Independence Day celebration in Washington, U.S., July 4, 2024.
REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

The debate about how Joe Biden came to his July 21 withdrawal continues. Was it an unjustified anti-democratic coup against Biden. Conspiracy theories abound. Even Donald Trump appears flummoxed and of course disappointed since he wanted Biden in the race.

In an interview with Ryan Schuiling on KHOW 630 we discussed Joe Biden's weekend withdrawal after the painful 24-day defense President Biden tried to make after his disastrous debate performance. My view was that Biden truly did not understand his performance had focused the narrative of the race on his major vulnerability – competence, and reinforced his age problem with voters.

Most important for Democrats were doubts about his ability to engage Donald Trump and conduct a winning campaign. While the problem was self-evident to pollsters and party elected officials and leaders, Biden, his family and top aids isolated and cherry-picked polling data to avoid the reality.

Facing a similar dire situation in 1952, Harry Truman only took 18 days after not winning the New Hampshire primary to withdraw and LBJ only needed 19 days in 1968. Biden created this crisis by pressing for reelection in spite of approval polls below 40 percent and consistently running behind Trump with his age and shaky performances cited as major handicaps to his campaign.

Kamala Harris was quickly accepted as the nominee because the party did not want to continue the chaos, especially after Trump's assassination attempt and the Republicans' generally successful convention.

The history of parties controlling the White House making a switch in nominees and winning the election is not good. Republican Presidents Eisenhower and Nixon followed Democrats Truman and LBJ. Harris will need to establish her own presidential image while initially inheriting Biden's polling numbers. But, with the age issue gone, Harris, focusing on women, people of color, and younger voters, may re-energize the Democrats.

RELATED:
Harris Takes Over – Close Race 8/6/24
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops-Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

Denver Voters Inundated with Tax and Union Ballot Initiatives

As of August, nine ballot measures have been proposed in Denver and several, including another city sales tax increase for housing and a billion-dollar school bond initiative, are being prepared for introduction.

Denver's liberal politics and interest groups are flooding the city with tax increases, unionization proposals, cultural proposals such as bans of fur sales and a slaughterhouse.

Sample of Proposals
- Binding arbitration for fire department union
- Collective bargaining for city employees
- Denver Health sales tax increase
- Affordable housing sales tax increase (proposed)
- Denver Public School bond (proposed)

If all the taxes pass, Denver sales tax will be the highest among the metro area cities. In 2000, Denver gave 62 percent of its vote to the Democratic candidate for president (Al Gore) and 79 percent in 2020 (Joe Biden). Denver has become a liberal one-party city with little leadership that resists new taxes and regulations even if they could harm citizens cost of living and the city’s economy.

RELATED:
Denver Health Takes Sales Tax Near Ten Percent June 26, 2024
Denver Labor Leaders Propose More City Unions – Bad Timing Sept 8, 2011

Caraveo Moved to Toss-Up

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

The latest ratings of US House elections nationally by Virginia professor Larry Sabato's Center for Politics (Crystal Ball) shifted Rep. Yadira Caraveo in the 8th CD from Lean Democrat to the Toss-Up category.

The district's close balance in the 2020 Presidential election (4.5 points for Biden) and the narrow win in her 2022 inaugural run (1,642 fifth closest in county) were factors leading to the relabeling. Also, Republicans managed to avoid an election denial candidate in a primary and have a new state legislator, Gabe Evans.

The Crystal Ball also shifted the 3 CD from Lean to Likely to Republican. Jeff Hurd, the Republican nominee's primary win (41%) and the District's history of Republican partisan advantage in Presidential elections gave Hurd the lead against the hard campaigning, well-funded Adam Frisch.

Although most Republicans are glad Lauren Boebert left the 3 CD, Republicans in the 4th CD appear to accept her. She has been moved from Likely to a Safe Republican. The Democratic candidate is not well funded or known.

Sabato's Crystal Ball Colorado Congressional Seat Shifts
District	Candidate	Shift
3 CD	Hurd vs Frisch	Lean to Likely Republican
4 CD	Boebert vs Calvarese	Likely to Safe Republican
8 CD	Caraveo vs Evans	Lean Democrat to Toss-up
Source: Ciruli Associates 2024

Overall, Sabato's group believed control of the US House is close with a slight Republican advantage if they win the Presidential race.

RELATED:
Colorado Election Scan on Super Tuesday March 18, 2024

Harris Takes Over – Close Race

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event in Atlanta on July 30, 2024.
Photo: Elijah Nouvelage | Afp | Getty Images

Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race July 21 on social media. Polls since then have shown Vice President and presumptive nominee Kamala Harris mostly inheriting Biden's polling numbers but with improvement. She's only about 1 point behind in popular vote and is tied in the 5-way third-party average. There is insufficient polling in battleground states as of August 5.

Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average down from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

Several factors appear to be changing in the internal numbers with Harris's entry into the race.

• She's increased Democratic enthusiasm, especially among key constituents, women, voters of color, and voters under 40.
• Third party candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. has lost Democratic support but still appears to take some anti-vax votes from Donald Trump.
• She's moved abortion to the top-of-issue list to the disadvantage of Republicans.
• Her honeymoon reflecting the unity and energy which started with the announcement, is likely to culminate after the August 22 Democratic Convention with a polling bounce. Obviously, Republicans are working hard to suppress and dissipate it.
• The change of Democratic nominees has reframed the election from one the Democrats were losing possibly by a trifecta to a much closer race, including for control of the House and Senate.

RELATED:
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops-Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24

Presidents Quit – A History

President Lyndon B. Johnson is shown during his nationwide television broadcast from the White House on March 31, 1968. Bettmann/Bettmann Archive

Three Presidents have decided to withdraw from running for second terms since WWII, all Democrats. Their party conventions were in Chicago and two replacement nominees lost their elections; Stevenson in 1952 and Humphrey in 1968.

The losses reflected the difficult political circumstances the incumbents had fallen into. Both Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson were managing difficult wars and dealing with chaotic domestic politics with strikes, investigations, demonstrations and riots. Biden is dealing with wars (in Europe and the Middle East), inflation and a troublesome southern border.

All three had approval ratings below 40 percent. Both Truman and LBJ either lost or did poorly in the New Hampshire primary (early March at a time with few primaries) and doubted their nominations much less reelection.

Biden had secured his nomination in spite of doubts about his age and campaign ability. But a devastating bad debate performance reinforced by weak polls caused a revolt among top party leaders, elected officials and donors. Twenty-four days later he withdrew and endorsed his Vice President, Kamala Harris. Even though she is competing against a polarizing, controversial ex-president, she begins her campaign about where he was in the polls.

Will she be the exception and extend the Democrats hold on the presidency or follow the pattern?

RELATED:
Transition, Biden to Harris: KOA Morning Show August 1, 2024

Transition, Biden to Harris: KOA Morning Show

President Joe Biden pauses before he addresses the nation from the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on Wednesday about his decision to drop his Democratic presidential reelection bid. Photo: Evan Vucci/Pool/via AP

KOA's Marty and Jeana had questions about President Joe Biden's Oval Office speech (July 24), three days after his withdrawal; namely, where was the discussion of his mental ability? My comments follow:

Passing the Torch
The speech was enough for Democrats. They are pleased the 24 days of chaos have ended and the campaign against Donald Trump is back on track without the distraction of Biden's age.

Although Biden didn't specifically mention questions of competences he referenced age, saying that a new generation of leaders is more important today than experience. Biden said passing the torch was critical to saving democracy. Democrats did not consider the issue competence. They saw it as a losing campaign from early in the year becoming a landslide after the June 27 debate. The Party is thankful he made the decision; accolades flowed (approval of withdrawal was 87%) and the transition to Kamala Harris stated quick.

Polling Bounce
Biden has been behind Trump by two or more points all year, especially in battleground states, and enthusiasm for him was at a low ebb. Democrats hope Harris will energize women, young voters, people of color and independents. A couple of quick polls confirm the view that to start she mostly inherit Biden's position, i.e., a few points back, but has potential for upside that Biden didn't.

Trump Wanted Biden
Trump became Biden's strongest supporter. He believed he had the race won with Biden. Trump received an opinion bounce from assassination attempt and the Republican convention. But it was interrupted by Biden's announcement and the transition. Republicans are concerned about Harris's potential and have immediately gone on the attack. She's a radical liberal, dumb, a lunatic, she knew Biden was incompetent and hid it, etc., etc. Trump is not happy and still developing a line of attack—expect a fierce, negative campaign.

Transition to Harris
Finally, we discussed that Democrats are surprised and pleased by the fast and smooth transition to Harris. As Biden steps back, the 100-day Harris campaign to November has begun. Although there is some residual concern about her campaign skills, Democrats appear all in.

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KOA Debate Interview July 2, 2024