Colorado’s Ten Biggest Stories in 2011

The 2011 political and news stories that had impact – a lot of irony and considerable strangeness.

1.      Hancock Denver’s new mayor.  Aurora changes guard.

2.      Democrats lose 2010 election; win 2011 redistricting.

3.      Voters say no to Proposition 103.  Court in Lobato says yes to billions in new school funding.

4.      Removing Denver’s Zuccotti Park lights up state capital grounds.

5.      After twenty years of fighting taxes, not paying them gets Bruce locked up.

6.      Time to rename the Sullivan Detention Center.

7.      Weld County became fracking Saudi Arabia.

8.      Medical marijuana is okay, but local distributors are out.

9.      Stock Show rustlers headed off at pass.

10.  For a moment, Tebow took us to heaven.

Democrats Fight to Challenge in 6th CD

Democrats have a fight to represent the newly designed sixth congressional district.  An ill-known two-term state legislator, Joe Miklosi, is being challenged by physician (chiropractor), Perry Haney.

Neither candidate has any name identification among Democrats in the district and both candidates will need exceptional campaigns to beat Mike Coffman, a skilled Republican campaigner, during an era that has been notably short of them (2010 was an exception in the last half decade).

Kurtis Lee just covered the primary in the Denver Post (http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_19605788).

Miklosi will hug the party and Haney will spend money.

“‘Initially, Miklosi struggled with being the legitimate candidate, and he’s survived that as there’s no substantial Democrats running against him in the primary,’ said political analyst Floyd Ciruli.  ‘So now he doesn’t dare give any legitimacy to Haney, who is truly an outsider.’

By contrast, Ciruli said Haney, in positioning himself as the outsider, is banking that all incumbents — even two-term state legislators — will fall hard in defeat next year.

‘Money will be a tremendous factor, as it always is,’ Ciruli said.  ‘And if Haney wants to spend his, he can get that visibility on radio and TV and no doubt be competitive in a primary.’”

The decision will be in the newly established primary of June 26, 2012.

New Dates for Colorado 2012 Politics

The Colorado primary election for state and federal (not presidential delegates) candidates has been moved to June 26 in 2012 from its date of the 2^nd Tuesday in August, which held for more than two decades.

Obama Losing Colorado Unaffiliated Voters

President Barack Obama has a 39 percent approval rating in Colorado.  He loses the self-described independent voter – 41 percent approval to 46 percent disapproval.

Obama receives near universal Republican disapproval (93%), but holds the approval of three-quarters of Democrats (75%).  Fifteen percent of Democrats don’t approve of his job performance.

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered.  The poll was sponsored by the Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site.  It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Is Mark Udall Safe for 2014 Re-election?

The Public Policy Polling (PPP) robo poll published December 8 claims U.S. Senator Mark Udall “would win handily” over a couple of Republicans they tested him against.  But, a closer examination indicates Udall is highly vulnerable and could be headed for a very tough re-election, especially against Republican Congressman Mike Coffman. Even though 57 percent of voters couldn’t rate Coffman’s job approval in a head-to-head, he held Udall to below 50 percent (48% Udall to 34% Coffman), and Udall’s own job approval was only 41 percent, with more than one-quarter of the population having no opinion (28%) and nearly one-third (31%) disapproving of his performance.

Democrats have also given Coffman a reason to run for the Senate. His newly re-districted 6th congressional seat is highly competitive and Coffman will be motivated to step up.

Public Policy Polling: Almost Three Years out Udall in Good Shape for CO-Sen.

Obama and Gingrich Have High Negatives

In a new Ciruli Associates poll publicized in Floyd Ciruli’s blog site, The Buzz, Newt Gingrich has an unfavorable rating nearly equal to President Obama among all Colorado voters.

Mitt Romney is only 4 percentage points behind the President’s favorability, but Gingrich is 11 points back in favorability and most importantly he has a 45 percent negative rating (Obama has a high 49 percent).

Examining recent polls, reinforces the likelihood that the 2012 election will force an electorate to pick between two alternatives large pluralities of voters are unhappy with. This is a formula for a very volatile and grumpy electorate looking for some relief – expect more surprises.

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered. The poll was sponsored by The Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site. It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Hickenlooper – The Nonpartisan Governor

Governor John Hickenlooper has a nonpartisan image, and it is reflected in voters’ evaluation of his job performance.  In a new Ciruli Associates poll, 59 percent of Colorado voters approve of Hickenlooper’s job at the end of his first year.

Hickenlooper’s performance is approved by 79 percent of Democrats,

62 percent of independents and a surprising 44 percent of Republicans, nearly two-to-one over his Republican disapproval (27%).

Hickenlooper’s Job Approval and Partisanship

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered.  The poll was sponsored by The Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site.  It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

See Denver Post staff writer Tim Hoover’s blog:  Poll:  Hickenlooper’s job approval 59%

Aurora in the New York Times

Aurora made the New York Times last week in a story that highlighted its new economic ambition and good luck capturing a congressional seat.

Reporter Kirk Johnson interviewed newly elected Mayor Steve Hogan and recorded some great quotations on the city’s struggle for an identity. 

“Aurora is a place to stop for gas on your way to somewhere else.”

“Someday we’re going to be bigger than Denver. We have the land, we have the water, we have the opportunities.”

The new congressional district will get considerable coverage in the 2012 election due to its reconfiguration as a swing district. And, Arapahoe County will likely be a battleground as President Obama attempts to carry the state.

“Arapahoe County, stretching east from here out onto the prairie, was, like most Denver suburbs, long safely Republican. But the county supported President Obama in 2008 and then went for a Democrat again in 2010 in the governor’s race, in embracing Denver’s mayor — now governor — John W. Hickenlooper. Whether two elections make for pattern or aberration is the new calculus.

‘To the extent we have visitors back East wanting to know what’s going on in Colorado politics, I will be sending them to Aurora and Arapahoe,’ said Floyd Ciruli, a political analyst and pollster.

Mr. Ciruli said he thought the new Sixth Congressional District centered on Aurora would probably be competitive for a Democrat, but that in contrast to Colorado’s largest city, Denver (strongly Democratic) and second-largest, Colorado Springs, (strongly Republican), Aurora in third place is quirky and unpredictable.”

See NY Times article:  Trying to shine in the shadow of a neighbor

Romney Ahead With Colorado Republicans and All Voters

In a new Ciruli Associates poll publicized in Floyd Ciruli’s blog site, The Buzz, Mitt Romney has the highest favorability among Colorado Republicans, with Newt Gingrich in a close second.  Ron Paul had barely one-third of Republicans stating a favorable impression.

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered.  The poll was sponsored by The Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site.  It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Obama Approval 39%

President Barack Obama’s job performance approval in Colorado is 39 percent, well below the level for re-election.  Nationally, Obama’s approval has been below 50 percent throughout 2011, and is now 45 percent in both the Gallup weekly average and in Real Clear Politics’ average (December 13).  In the just released Ciruli Associates poll, 53 percent of voters disapprove of Obama, or a 14 point negative spread between his positive and negative.

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered.  The poll was sponsored by The Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site.  It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

In a just released Public Policy Polling robo poll, Obama received 45 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval, with a 5 percent negative spread.

Examining areas of the state, Obama’s poor rating was mostly uniform across the state, except for the Western Slope of Colorado where his approval rating was at freezing level – 32 percent.

Hickenlooper Remains Popular

After nearly a year in office, Governor John Hickenlooper’s job performance is above 50 percent.  A recent Ciruli Associates poll gives him 59 percent approval, which is above a poll just completed by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a North Carolina Democratic-oriented robo poll.

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered.  The poll was sponsored by The Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site.  It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Hickenlooper’s approval rating is higher than Governor Jerry Brown of California, who has a 47 percent approval and a surprisingly high 17 percent who claim no opinion.  California polling expert Mark DiCamillo points out that while Brown’s approval is low for a first-term California governor, these are difficult times for politicians.

PPP claims Hickenlooper’s 53 percent with a very low negative rating is very good for governors in today’s political environment.  Only seven governors had higher ratings, including Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Brian Schweitzer of Montana.

See articles:

Sacramento Bee:  Poll shows Brown still rates high, but unpopular cuts loom

San Francisco Chronicle:  Jerry Brown’s rating may be better than it looks

Los Angeles Times:  Jerry Brown’s approval rating steady, new poll finds

Denver Post:  Colorado’s John Hickenlooper second-most-popular governor, poll says

Merkel vs. Bernanke

Sixty-six years after the total destruction of the German Reich, it is Germany and its chancellor that are directing the future of the European experiment.  And that means Angela Merkel and her center-right government has more influence over the next few months of the American economy’s recovery than Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke.  And, by extension, that means Ms. Merkel may decide the fate of President Obama’s re-election.  For if the American recovery stalls, or voters come to believe the economic future is shaky due to European turmoil, Obama will continue to struggle with voter distrust of his economic leadership.

Watching the European effort to stave off the financial crisis has many potent messages for Americans.  Fiscal irresponsibility is the greatest threat to a nation’s and people’s sovereignty.  Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland are about to lose their sovereign control over their budgets, their debt and their taxes to Brussels.

Fiscal irresponsibility or the inability to go into the financial marketplace and conduct business because a judgment has been made that our ability or willingness to repay is poor is the greatest threat to American sovereignty, or the sovereignty of a state, such as California or even Colorado. 

“When Things Fall Apart, the Center Can’t Hold”

A paraphrase of a line from W.B. Yeats 1920 poem of the chaos of the post war period.  From the Mid-East to Europe to America, it is clear the old forms are failing and its unclear what is new is coming into being.

A new Internet-based political movement, Americans Elect (http://www.americanselect.org/), is building a national footprint to have a presidential candidate on the ballot in nearly every state.

The candidate will be nominated online, and will need to either have a national reputation or be able to self-finance a campaign.

Although no third-party candidate has been even close to winning the presidency, third-party candidates regularly can make a difference in the outcome of a race.  Ralph Nader’s votes in Florida in 2000 gave the state to G.W. Bush instead of Al Gore.  Ross Perot clearly affected many states in 1992, including shifting Colorado to Bill Clinton instead of the first President Bush. 

If Ron Paul or Donald Trump was nominated, the Republican nominee could be hurt, and Mike Bloomberg could shift Oregon or Washington to the Republicans.

Gingrich Takes Over Lead as Cain’s Campaign Collapses

On December 3, Herman Cain’s campaign finally collapsed from the weight of multiple controversies and missteps.

The campaign had been on life support since late October when charges of harassment were aired.  The end came quickly after an Atlanta woman said she and Cain had a 13-year affair.

The latest rising force in the Republican nomination fight is former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich.  He is inheriting the shifting Cain supporters and winning new adherents from his debate performance.

Although he is surging ahead of Mitt Romney, both nationally and in Iowa polls, he does not run as well Romney against President Obama.

“9News Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli says Gingrich will likely reap the most benefits.

‘The main dynamic that’s going to change here is that it could help the anti-Mitt Romney vote,’ said Ciruli.

Ciruli adds that another beneficiary might be President Barack Obama.

‘Probably what Obama is watching most closely is will Mitt Romney win this race:  The more candidates in this race, the better it was for Mitt Romney,’ said Ciruli.  ‘I think Obama fears Romney the most.’”

See 9News:

Floyd Ciruli talks about latest Cain campaign developments

Cain suspends campaign shifting GOP race

Congressional Districts’ Elections Will Be 2012 Action

The shake-up of Colorado’s state legislative and congressional district boundaries by commissioners and judges have created the main political action in 2012 election. 

From a 4 to 7 Republican split, Judge Hyatt created a possible Democratic 5 to 7 configuration.  Given the lack of major statewide races, who wins the newly redistricted 3^rd CD and 6^th CD will be the news.

See articles:

Pueblo Chieftain:  Supreme Court upholds Dems’ redistricting map

Denver Post:  Andrew Romanoff won’t challenge Rep. Mike Coffman in newly competitive Colorado 6^th Congressional District

9News:  Democrats win Colorado redistricting battle

PAPOR Conference

The annual conference of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion will be held this week in San Francisco.  The pollsters from western states regularly come together to present their analyses and predictions for the next election.

History of Western States Roundtable

•         PAPOR initiates concept of western states as area of study

•         Shortly after California gubernatorial recall, roundtable begins

•         Mountain West becomes Democratic battleground in 2004

•         Alaska, Idaho, Utah and Wyoming anchor the most conservative states.  California, Oregon and Washington are regularly on the left.

•         Colorado begins a trend to battleground status, joined by Arizona, Montana, Nevada and New Mexico

Major Themes of 2012

•         Will the West save Obama’s presidency?

•         Will the Tea Party movement rule over Western Republican nominations?  Will they harm Republicans in general elections?

•         Does Occupy Wall Street help or hurt the Democratic Party candidates?

•         Is there political space for a presidential third party?

•         When will the Hispanic vote catch up with Hispanic demographics?

•         Will the 2012 election affect California’s political gridlock and economic woes?

•         Is gay rights the only Western social issue with impact?  Marijuana?  Illegal immigration?

•         Has social media evolved sufficiently to be a major factor in western states’ elections?