Democratic Race to Replace Newsom Begins

California State Capitol, AP Photo/Juliana Yamada

California is about to change governors. As Governor Newsom ends his term and the Democratic Party struggles for a strategy and message after November 5, a host of Democrats are beginning the early primary maneuvering.

A new statewide poll of all voters from UC Berkeley shows the early order of names, mostly sorted by their name identification, with liberal former US Senate candidate Katie Porter ahead and followed by more than a dozen lesser known politicians.

Republicans came in second and third. The table shows the top seven names.

The field then drops to less than 7 percent of the 1st or 2nd choice among voters. Included in the “other” category was Rob Bonta, California Attorney General, Betty Yee, former State Controller, and Rick Caruso, L.A. businessman. One large caveat is, if Kamala Harris jumps in the race she would start with a third of the vote as “very likely” to support her and another 13 percent “somewhat likely” (46% total).

The Democrats begin the race with a major advantage in the general election. However, their effort to adjust to the November 5 voter slippage and address the state’s population slow down and affordability crisis will be watched by Democrats nationwide.

Newsom Begins Tough National Race

Newsom and Trump in 2018 | Photo: Politico/Paul Kitagaki Jr.

Governor Gavin Newsom, who is term limited, has a major handicap as he begins presidential field testing, namely California. A new Census report shows the state is still slated to lose more congressional clout as people leave the state. It is judged in repeated national polls as a failed state rated “least desirable to live” and ranks last again in U-Haul move ins. And in a November revolt 68 percent of the voters enacted harsh new penalties for property crimes and drugs, defying Democrats who had advocated lighter sentences. They also dumped two Democratic District Attorneys.

California lost its first congressional district in its history after the 2020 reapportionment. A new population report shows if current population trends hold, the state could lose four congressional seats in 2030. The big winners are Texas and Florida, which could gain seven.

The most frequent complaint is the high cost of living in California. Unfortunately, Democrats have contributed to the affordability crisis with regulations, taxes and mandated wage increases (highest in cost of living in country, 4th highest tax burden).
OC Register, Lansner 12-22-24

Newsom has two years to show he’s not the problem and there are some solutions. It won’t be easy.

Polis Term Limited - Democratic Race Starts

Polis with Chainsaw | Photo: Nick Coltrain, Denver Post

Governor Jared Polis’s chain sawing of outdated executive orders got him national attention of Trump officials. While the term limited Polis is beginning to adjust his image for his next political move, Colorado Democrats have begun the silent primary to replace him for 2026. One congressperson and two of the state’s constitutional officers, both term limited have been tested in a recent statewide poll of prominent Democrats. The results, mostly reflect name identification at this early, early point.

Attorney General Phil Weiser who had the lowest name identification has already announced his campaign, no doubt to make up being less known. He is also considered more moderate in Democratic Party circles but should have an opportunity to raise his profile and partisan edge engaging with the Trump Administration. Jena Griswold, the highly partisan Secretary of State, had the highest favorable rating among Democratic-leaning voters but also the highest unfavorable. Although Congressperson Joe Neguse is not well known, he had a high favorability rating and would be a formidable candidate. Ken Salazar, former Senator and current Ambassador to Mexico, is both well known and popular, but he considered the race in 2018 and decided against it. At 69, he would be the oldest candidate in a field when generational change is being widely discussed. Others could have been tested, such as Congresspersons Jason Crow and Brittany Pettersen.

It should be a competitive primary.

Reported by Seth Klamann, Denver Post 12-17-24, Marshall Zelinger 9 KUSA 12-16-24