Three of Colorado’s Congressional Seats to Watch In 2024

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

Colorado will likely not have much of a presidential race and no senate seats are up, but the state’s eight U.S. House seats will provide action. The trials, tribulations and bizarre behavior of Lauren Boebert will be closely followed in the 3rd congressional district. Ken Buck’s retirement creates a far-right super primary in the very conservative 4th CD and Yadira Caraveo can expect a strong challenge in the new 8th CD.

Trump Can’t Lose

Benjamin Netanyahu, right, meets with then-Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in Rome on June 13, 2011. (Photo: Amos Ben Gershom / GPO/FLASH90)

Like Silvio Berlusconi in Italy and Bibi Netanyahu in Israel, Donald Trump can’t lose. If he does, he likely goes to prison. The 2024 presidential election, if it follows recent patterns, will be close and decided in a handful of states: Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and a few others. Not only will Trump fight to the last vote, but if 2020 is an early indicator, election officials and counting systems, especially in those key states, will be under tremendous pressure to produce him a victory. As Mr. Trump said in 2020 to the Secretary of State in Georgia, “I just want to find 11,700 votes… There is nothing wrong with saying, you know, that you’ve recalculated.”

Voters interested in an honest election, including those in states without a serious presidential contest like Colorado and California, should focus their attention on states where both politics and the integrity of the count will be pushed to the limits.

Third Congressional Race in Reshuffle

The election landscape in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional district is in a major reshuffle.

Lauren Boebert has begun an apology tour since the “Beetlejuice” incident but the damage simply highlights her already fringe lifestyle and viewpoints. She only hung on in 2020 by 546 votes, the closest race in the nation.

The state’s Republican establishment want her gone and are backing attorney Jeff Hurd of Grand Junction with a plethora of endorsements and $500,000 in early donations. Initially, he was seen as positioning himself as the nominee in 2026 after her likely loss in 2024. But could he beat her in the primary?

However, Democrats are not without internal controversy in the race. Democratic frontrunner Adam Frisch, who almost beat her and has already raised $4 million in donations, including millions online from national donors, now faces a primary opponent also from Grand Junction, the largest and very Republican county in the district. Town mayor Anne Stout announced and has attracted some high-powered consultants and Democratic liberal and women’s donor groups. Stout will likely divert money and attention to a primary and could pull Frisch to the left, making him more vulnerable in the general elections against Boebert or Hurd.

A lot to watch in the 3rd Congressional District.

RELATED: Boebert in Collapse

KOA RADIO: Tuesday’s Election Revives Conservatives

Lawmakers in the Senate work during a special session of the Colorado legislature at the Colorado Capitol in Denver on Friday, Nov. 17, 2023. (Photo by Hyoung Chang/The Denver Post)

KOA’s Marty Lentz and Jeana Gondek interviewed me on the Colorado Election results.

Observations:

1. Governor Polis and the Democratic legislature suffered major damage to their credibility with the massive loss of Prop. HH.
   
   Taxes will now be a big issue in the next session. A special session is possible (has been called) but will be hard to manage. The issue rallied the Republican Party. Former Governor Owens, pillar of the establishment, helped the opposition and spoke at their victory party.
   
   
2. Crime is on the Colorado agenda. Mayor Coffman won a decisive victory in Aurora campaigning as “tough on crime.”
   
   The Denver School Board was swept from office, accused of not prioritizing student safety and being dysfunctional. The momentum for change was so strong all 7 members, not just 3, would have been removed if they had been on the ballot.

RELATED:

Republican Debate: KOA Morning Report
COFFMAN or MARCANO

Republican Debate: KOA Morning Report

The presidential hopefuls seemed content to aim for second place behind former President Donald J. Trump and deliver digs at President Biden.Credit...Maansi Srivastava/The New York Times

Marty and Jeana interviewed me on Wednesday’s GOP debate in Miami. Observations:

1. The debate was the best of the three so far. Time is short; it’s only two months to the Iowa caucus. Candidates’ answers were sharper, crisper, a smaller group helped with good moderators.
2. Lots of foreign policy but just after Israel terrorist attack so issue is top of mind. For a party with isolationist tendency, candidates were for military involvement in host of areas; Israel, Iran, Mexico (border and drug dealers), China, and for some, Ukraine. Vivek Ramaswamy, who said he wanted to be “unhinged;” worried about the Canadian border and would defund Israel.
3. Tuesday’s election night was bad for the GOP because of abortion and on that question debaters had no new approach. They are all pro-life. Haley advocated realism and tolerance, DeSantis blamed the Evangelicals for the loss, and Ramaswamy, the RNC.
4. The winner was Nikki Haley. She took the most incoming fire without losing composure and fired back on several occasions, including calling Vivek “scum.” Ron DeSantis improved but it didn’t appear to make a difference. The losers were Chris Christie and Tim Scott. They were left out of the cross conversations and may not make the next debate as the criteria to join gets more difficult.
5. Polling shows Trump wins about 45 percent of both Iowa and New Hampshire Republican voter, and DeSantis and Haley split about 30 percent. They are competing to become main alternatives to Trump. Both states have a history of shaking up the expectations.

Thursday's CMN rundown with @MartyLenz_KOA and @KOAJeana

Local election results and trends nationally heading into 2024 with Political Analyst and Pollster @FloydCiruli. He joined @MartyLenz_KOA and @KOAJeana on CMN.

Listen live to CMN 5-9A: https://t.co/piC1BERyayhttps://t.co/ezARyjJJMR

— KOA 850 AM & 94.1 FM (@KOAColorado) November 9, 2023

Denver Post: Voters Send Message to DPS - Change

John Youngquist and Marlene de la Rosa (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

“It was pretty divisive,”said pollster Floyd Ciruli of the results, adding, “What you could feel was the momentum and the passion was on the side of change.”

Union-backed members will retain their majority on DPS’s board after the election, but the newcomers will have an edge when it comes to establishing board leadership, priorities and potential future policies because Tuesday’s election made it very clear that a significant portion of the electorate supports a shake-up of the status quo, Ciruli said. - Denver Post 11-9-23

Denver voters swept all three union-supported members, two of which were incumbents, and replaced them with a new team focused on student safety and ending board chaos. The newcomers represent a school reform non-union background.

Although the new members do not have a majority, they have momentum from an electorate that wants change.

The teachers union is already very concerned any shift toward reform issues such as merit pay, school closures, and neighborhood vs. charter schools, would threaten union work rules and benefits. The union and their allies appear on the defensive.

People voted for less dysfunction on the board. That may be a challenge to achieve.

See Jessica Seaman’s front page article: Voters Send Resounding Message of Change

RELATED: DPS Election Critical for Denver’s Reputation

COFFMAN or MARCANO

Aurora 2023 Mayor Candidates, clockwise from top left, Mike Coffman, Juan Marcano and Jeff Sanford. Photos by PHILIP B. POSTON

The contest between Mike Coffman and Juan Marcano pits law and order versus prison industrial complex - the two slogans attached to their views on crime.

Coffman is in a tough re-election with an Aurora electorate he barely carried in 2019 that is more than 50 percent minority. If he wins is the "crime denial" wing of the new left in retreat?

CIRULI ELECTION SPOTLIGHT

Mayor Nick Gradisar Feb 16, 2023 | Photo: Cheiftain/Josue Perez

Top issue in metro area; crime. Denver (DPS and Union) and Aurora (Mayor Coffman and Marcano).
Statewide; credibility of Democratic legislature and Governor Polis (Prop. HH).
Pueblo; Mayor Gradisar faces 8 person field in tough re-election. Runoff likely.