Republicans’ Fortunes Improved in West

Arizona polling averages (RCP) remain within the margin of error but over the last few weeks have shifted toward Republican candidates. Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for Governor’s average doubled since October 16 (1%/10-16-22), and Mark Kelly, the Democratic frontrunner for Senate, has seen his average drop from 4 to 2 points since October 3.

D for Democrat, R for Republican, front runners lead on October 3 and 24/Real Clear Politics

In Nevada and Oregon, Republicans are ahead for governor (Lombardo 2% and Drazan 2%) and the Republican Senate candidate Adam Laxalt is 1 point up in Nevada. All five the races are extremely close but appear to be moving Republican in voter sentiment.

READ: https://fciruli.blogspot.com/2022/10/trumps-team-make-inroads-in-arizona-and.html

Lots of Late Polls, Questions on Sources and Methods

As Colorado balloting starts polls begin surfacing claiming candidates are doing better than the conventional wisdom claims. One just appeared to show Joe O’Dea in a tight Senate race with Michael Bennet and another, Adam Frisch, is beating Lauren Boebert by five points in the 3rd Congressional District.

The O’Dea poll is from the Senate Opportunity Fund (9-27-22) a PAC for Republican Senate candidates. A host of polls since the summer show Bennet ahead by at least 6 points. The current average from Real Clear Politics’ site polls is 8.

The Frisch poll was conducted by Center Street PAC (10-6-22) and polled 144 registered voters (some not in the district), showing a 45 to 40 percent advantage for Frisch. The last credible poll showed Boebert up 2 points (the closeness of which was a surprise).

It is possible the two polls are not outliers and captured trends, O’Dea and Frisch may even win. It will be major news if it happens. Late conducted polls are mostly fundraising devices and efforts to change the expectations of elites, especially in the media.

READ: POLL: Lauren Boebert Tied With Adam Frisch in Colorado-03 Among Registered Voters, But Frisch Struggles to Raise Awareness

SOF Polling (10/4/22) Memorandum
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/04/lauren-boebert-tied-democrat-midterm-poll

Denver Press Club Hosts Election Panel

Ballots are out, after November 8, who will control Congress? Will Colorado Republicans recover from their 2018 debacle? Did the mail back voting work? Is 2024 Biden vs. Trump? The Denver Press Club will host a post-election panel of Colorado political pundits to examine the election results, the impact and what’s next.

The panel:

• Patty Calhoun, Editor, Westward
• Dick Wadhams, Republican consultant, commentator, former state party chair
• Steve Welchert, Democrat consultant, commentator, directs numerous ballot and congressional campaigns
• Luigi Del Puerto, Editor, Colorado Politics
• Floyd Ciruli, Director, Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at DU

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli will moderate the panel at 7:00 PM on Thursday, November 10, at the Denver Press Club on 1330 Glenarm Place. The event is free for members and $10 for non-members.

RSVP HERE

Can Caruso Win the L.A. Mayor’s Race?

Congresswoman Karen Bass and billionaire businessman Rick Caruso to face off in the November general election. (Bass photo by John McCoy/AP; Caruso photo by Hans Gutknecht, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)

Since the June 7, 2022, primary it has been assumed Congressperson Karen Bass, who won by 7 points (43% to 36%) was the strong frontrunner over developer Rick Caruso for the November 8 election. In a Democratic majority city during a midterm election, she appeared to hold the advantage. Indeed, she has the near unanimous endorsements of the Democratic party and the municipal establishment from President Biden on down.

However, Caruso didn’t give up and has spent a total of $80 million on what is now a saturation advertising and direct voter contact campaign. Polls are mixed but it appears the race has closed with a new poll claiming Caruso is ahead by 3 points.

The latest poll of only a sample of 400 likely voters, could be an outlier but it may reflect a growing disenchantment with the entire City Hall establishment due to the explosive tape on redistricting city council districts. Along with crime and homelessness, Caruso’s main theme has been “an outsider is the solution to the persistent corruption in City Hall”. Polls mostly show a quarter of the electorate still undecided. Do they break for Bass or is this a tight race to the end?

Are the Democrats Over Playing Abortion?

With two weeks left in the mid-term election and almost a quarter of the vote already cast Colorado Democrats are hoping the abortion issue will be sufficient to support another cross-the-board victory like 2018. Unfortunately, all the national signs are that abortion has faded in public concern and inflation, which Democrats and especially President Biden get blamed for, is becoming dominant.

Valerie Richardson in a conservative Washington Times article quoted Dick Wadhams and me on the issue in reference to Republican Senate candidate Joe O’Dea.

Washington Times:

For Democrats, however, there are signs that the abortion issue, which shot to the forefront after the Supreme Court’s June 24 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson overturning Roe v. Wade, is running out of steam.

“The effect of the Dobbs decision has really slowed, and with these increasing reports of inflation and the economy and then I’ll throw in crime, especially here in Colorado, I think it definitely makes O’Dea competitive to win this thing,” said Mr. Wadhams.

Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli said that Democrats “have put everything, including these independent operations, into abortion.”

“Well, abortion is an issue that decays quicky. It turns over,” said Mr. Ciruli, director of the University of Denver’s Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research. “People get tired of it. And now the economy is the big nasty issue.”

As a result, he said, “there’s a sense, including in the O’Dea race, that the Democrats are going to have to revise their strategy for these last few weeks. They’re going to need to change themes or step it up, because that’s an advantage for him at this point.”

Joe O'Dea, Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

He compared the race to the 2014 Senate contest in which Democratic Sen. Mark Udall placed an enormous emphasis on women’s issues, earning the nickname 'Mark Uterus,' and ultimately lost to Republican Cory Gardner.

Mark Udall, that was the only issue he played, and by Oct. 1, the national tide that was helping Cory pulled forward, and he eked it out. Is that happening here?

"I don’t know," Mr. Ciruli said. "But that’s a Democratic concern."

READ: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/oct/20/joe-odea-gambles-big-colorados-independent-voters-/

Western Pollsters Gather – Analyze 2022 Midterm and the Politics of 2024

The annual conference of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) will meet in San Francisco December 1 and 2 to present new research on public opinion trends.

One of the popular panels titled “Election Issues in Western States” will sift through the results of the 2022 midterm and discuss the likely political changes, including a preview of 2024. The panel assembles California’s top pollsters and political analysts with colleagues from Western states.

Scheduled to attend are:

• Mark DiCamillo – Director of the Berkeley IGS Poll
• Mark Baldassare – President of the Public Policy Institute of California, conducts statewide polls
• Brianne Gilbert – Director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles (StudyLA), senior lecturer at LMU
• Floyd Ciruli – Director of the Crossley Center of Public Opinion Research at University of Denver

Also invited to comment is Mark Barabak, columnist for the Los Angeles Times, who regularly covers western political trends and, of course, California.

I will moderate the panel and discuss the midterm election trends in Western States, especially Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon, and the polls and results in Colorado.

Politico: Can Colorado Be the Seat That Decides Senate Control?

Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., and Joe O'Dea, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate. (AP Photo)

In a long review of the Colorado senate race, Politico’s Natalie Allison concluded the race doesn’t appear as competitive as most expected. I agreed and said as of October 16 the race was still the Democrats’ to lose. The Republicans would need a very strong closing to make it a “sleeper state”:

“Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Colorado pollster who now directs the University of Denver’s polling program, said political observers in the state entered the election believing there was a chance the Senate seat could flip.

“Ciruli said there’s no question inflation is voters’ No. 1 concern, and that Biden isn’t particularly popular there. And he doesn’t doubt that polling this year – Colorado no exception – is missing the full extent of the populist vote. All the same, disenchantment with national Democrats doesn’t seem to be rushing in a red wave in Colorado,” he said.

“We could be surprised on the 8th, but at the moment where the polls are, there’s the sense that Independent voters just may not be available to the Republicans” this year in Colorado, Ciruli said.

READ: The sleeper state Republicans are targeting to win the Senate

Trump’s Team Make Inroads in Arizona and Nevada

The midterm elections in western states reflect the polarization of the nation’s politics with a 22-point Democratic win for governor in California but three possible pickups by former President Trump’s endorsed candidates for senate and governor in Nevada and governor in Arizona.

The Trump road show is a frequent visitor to western states but doesn’t stop in Colorado or cross the Colorado River into California. President Biden just visited both states.

RCP, D for Democrat, R for Republican, front runners lead on October 3 and October16.

Biden Comes to Colorado. Are the Races Over?

Photo courtesy of the Colorado Snowsports Museum and Hall of Fame.

With President Biden in Colorado to make Camp Hale a national monument, many political observers pointed out the President, with a 40 percent approval rating, is only going to states he can help and not hurt the candidate. Does that mean Colorado’s senate and governor’s race are now seen as mostly beyond a serious Republican threat?

(October 16 Real Clear Politics polling average: Bennet up 7%, Polis up 14%)

Kevin J. Beaty/Denverite
President Joe Biden speaks at Camp Hale after declaring the WWII training ground a national monument. Oct. 12, 2022.

Denver Press Club Hosts Election Panel

The Denver Press Club will host a post-election panel of Colorado political experts to examine the November 8 election results.

• Patty Calhoun, Editor, Westword
• Dick Wadhams, Republican consultant, commentator, former state party chair
• Steve Welchert, Democrat consultant, commentator, directs numerous ballot and congressional campaigns
• Luigi Del Puerto, Editor, Colorado Politics

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli will moderate the panel at 7:00 PM on Thursday, November 10, at the Denver Press Club on 1330 Glenarm Place. The event is free for members and $10 for non-members.

RSVP HERE

Newsom in 2024 Shadow Primary

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at the Clinton Global Initiative, Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson, File)

Both political parties have shadow primaries under way. A large Republican field is campaigning for the 2024 presidential nomination. They are visiting Iowa and New Hampshire, giving speeches at the Nixon and Reagan presidential libraries, and writing and promoting books. Their positions range from Donald Trump accolades wanting to see if he runs, to anti-Trumpers claiming to be running regardless of what he does.

Democrats, even with a seated President, also have a shadow primary under way. It's based on the assumption that Biden may not run for re-election. No one in the field is publicly breaking with him, but age, polls, and possibly a bad midterm election are weighting the side of one term.

Not surprisingly, Vice President Kamala Harris is the front-runner in a Morning Consult poll just released. She had 28 percent of the Democrats polled, with one-quarter of voters undecided. The results reflect a decline in Harris’s support since December 2021 of 5 points, down from 33 percent.

Among the nearly 50 percent of the Democrats in favor of other candidates, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg was in second position with 13 percent.

Gavin Newsom, with 6 percent, joins the pack of liberals, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%) and Elizabeth Warren (7%) who jockey for third place in the field. Newsom’s standing with Democratic voters doubled in the last year, no doubt reflecting his high-profile challenge to Republican governors Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbot. Democrats should expect to see more of him as the political focus shifts to 2024 after the November 8th midterms.

Will Ticket Splitters Save Colorado Republicans?

After some early optimism about Republican Joe O'Dea's election chances, new bipartisan polls show the race about 9 to 10 points in favor the incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet ( Keating, Magellan poll 46-36 Bennet - 10/2/22). Although it's still a month out and the economy is deteriorating, the race does not appear close. The governor's race is even worse with Heidi Ganahl polling an average of 13 points behind Jared Polis.

Hence, the question, will ticket splitters help Republicans in two other statewide races for Secretary of State and Treasurer? Although ticket splitting has declined both nationally and in Colorado in recent years, the state does have many unaffiliated voters and Republicans have nominated strong candidate for the positions. If they fail it will solidify Colorado's reputation as a blue state and suggest that the Republican Party's relationship with controversial views on abortion and Trump's big lie has damaged their reputation even in down ballot races.

Affordable Housing a Winner, Psychedelics a Loser

Colorado voters will pick their way through 11 ballot issues. With inflation and crime top issues, affordable housing may become the most and psychedelic drugs the least popular propositions.

The last decade in Colorado increased the urban, youth and independent (unaffiliated) vote. Polls show among these groups affordable housing, a sub-set of inflation, is a primary issue. It could benefit Proposition 123 that creates a fund to "reduce rents, purchase land for affordable housing developments," address homelessness, etc. Its passage would put the issue on the state-wide political map.

An initiative (Proposition 122) to decriminalize psychedelic drugs, will likely lose as a victim of the Fentanyl crime scare. Its defeat will signal a retreat from Colorado's drug decriminalization phase begun in 2012 with marijuana.