Thursday, October 31, 2024

First Friday Breakfast

Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead


CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On November 8, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a post-election panel to analyze what happened and what’s next. Dean Paul Teske and Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will lead the discussion with a panel of political leaders.

The First Friday Breakfast will review the results of the Presidential election to the extent known, the likelihood and path of a final decision if not known, and what the result will be for American democracy. Also discussed, Colorado’s 8th Congressional District results, which may decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The myriad of state ballot propositions, including criminal justice, animal rights, abortion, education, and a dramatic change of state election rules and what it means for Colorado in 2025 will be examined.

Political leaders joining the discussion are:
State Senator Chris Hansen
State Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer

panelists

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

First Friday Breakfast
Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead
Friday, November 8, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Monday, October 21, 2024

Orange County Top Congressional Battleground

U.S. Senate candidates Rep. Adam Schiff, left, and Republican Steve GarveyU.S. Senate candidates Rep. Adam Schiff, left, and Republican Steve Garvey. Photo by Damian Dovarganes, AP Photo

In the recent IGS Berkeley poll for the U.S. Senate race, the election in Orange County is tied while Democrat Adam Schiff is beating Steve Garvey by 17 points (53% to 36%) statewide. The polling tie reflects the recent competitive political environment in O.C. The county has two of the country’s most competitive House races in Republican Michelle Steel’s coastal district (CD45) and Irvine/UCI-centered former Congressperson Katie Porter’s open seat (CD 47).

Orange County Presidential, Senate + Gubernatorial Race in California

Although Joe Biden won the county in 2020 by 7 points (53% to 46%), the 2022 senate race was a near tie between Alex Padilla and Mark Meuser, and Gavin Newsom lost the governor’s race (48% to 52%) to Brian Dahle, who only got 41 percent statewide.

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

First Friday Breakfast - Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On November 8, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a post-election panel to analyze what happened and what’s next. Dean Paul Teske and Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will lead the discussion with a panel of political leaders.

The First Friday Breakfast will review the results to the extent known, if not known the likely path of a final decision and what the result will be for American democracy.

Paul Teske and Floyd Ciruli

Paul Teske, Dean, CU Denver School of Public Affairs
Floyd Ciruli, Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend the panel here.

First Friday Breakfast
Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead
Friday, November 8, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Will Voters OK Billion Dollar Bonds for Colorado’s Schools?

Corey Elementary School in DenverCorey Elementary School in Denver - Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Pos

Nearly $7 billion in new bonds are being proposed by school boards around Colorado. DPS, Aurora Public Schools and Cherry Creek have record requests for more money. Voters have been generous with school districts in the past but this year has some special challenges along with a general unhappiness with government

“All government has suffered from a trust crisis,” Ciruli said. “Schools, I think, have the same problem.”

Affordability
In an interview with Denver Post reporter Jessica Seaman, I pointed out this is a difficult year to ask for record funding after raucous legislative sessions on rising property taxes and frequent complaints from voters about the affordability of living in the Denver Metro area.

“Coloradoans increasingly are worried about whether they can afford to live here, which, in turn, could make tax measures on the ballot less appealing to voters this year. This is especially so in Denver, where there are other ballot measures that, if approved, would increase the city’s sales tax,” said pollster Floyd Ciruli.

Douglas County
Douglas County, which is asking for nearly a half a billion dollars, lost a similar bond request last year. Ciruli noted the changes in Douglas County. “While the conservative electorate could make it difficult for a bond measure to pass,” he said, “there is a lot of unity in terms of the board and the superintendent in favor of this, and it certainly helps.”

Denver County
Denver’s school board just went through a difficult election around school safety and board dysfunction. “Although three new members – John Youngquist, Kimberlee Sia and Marlene De La Rosa – were elected to the DPS board last year, critics don’t believe there’s been enough change in district leadership, including in the role of superintendent,” Ciruli said.

High Taxes
“Although potential challenge that DPS will face in getting voters to approve its bond proposal is that there are two other measures on the ballot, one to financially help Denver Health and the other to fund affordable housing, that would increase the city’s sales tax rate if approved,” Ciruli said. “This has created an unusual amount of talk in Denver about how “taxes are getting high,” he said. “It creates an affordability problem.”

“Districts’ argument that their bond proposals won’t increase property taxes works in their favor, but they are still facing voters who are concerned generally about the economy and inflation – and this means the economic environment is not as “generous” as in previous years,” Ciruli said.

READ ARTICLE:
Colorado school districts want voters to OK billions for new buildings and maintenance. It may be a tough sell.

RELATED:
DPS Election Critical for Denver’s Reputation 10/20/23
Denver Post: Voters Send Message to DPS - Change 11/10/23

Friday, October 11, 2024

Harris is Projected to Win Colorado by Ten Points or More

Vice President Kamala Harris shakes Donald Trump's Hand at Presidental Debate
Photo: Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Colorado by 11 points which is unlikely to be altered by Trumps trip to Aurora (53% Harris, 42% Trump) (poll by Keating Research Inc. 9/14/24). In 2020, Joe Biden won Colorado by 13 points. Earlier this year, when Biden was behind by 2 points or more national polls, he would have still won Colorado but by a diminished 7 or 8 points or about half his 2020 win.

Today, Harris is near a very substantial win in spite of only being ahead of the popular vote by 2 points. That should be comforting for Yadira Caraveo, Democratic Congressman, in a very difficult reelection campaign in Colorado 8th District.

Biden and Harris Beat Trump in CO

RELATED:
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today 02/14/24
Biden’s Colorado Win Cut in Half 02/21/24

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

California: Law and Order is Back

Nathan Hochman (left) and George Gascón Photos: Nathan Hochman for LA County District Attorney/Campaign ad via YouTube; Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

Two recent polls show Los Angeles’ liberal reform District Attorney, George Gascón, is losing his reelection by more than two to one. He is trailing his opponent, Nathan Hockman, by 24 points (44% to 20%). Gascón, a Democrat in an overwhelmingly Democratic city, has been behind in several polls for months. There is still a third of the electorate undecided. A new LA Times poll by Berkeley IGS shows Gascón behind 51 percent to 21 percent. The USC/CSU Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona poll of September 30 was sponsored by Channel 2, NBC.

The same pollsters show getting tough on crime is the public’s position today, with 60% of LA voters supporting Proposition 36’s goal to increase penalties for retail theft and crimes involving fentanyl (Berkeley IGS) (58% support Prop. 36 on USC et al. poll).

Law and Order

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Early Voting Begins – Harris Ahead in Popular Vote

Steve Kornacki explains why Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are focused on PennsylvaniaSteve Kornacki explains why Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are focused on Pennsylvania

As early voting begins in Colorado and many states, the race remains too close to call – the same as it was on September 20 when this analysis was last published. The election remains polarized into two nearly equal camps and opinions are being rigidly maintained in spite of hundreds of millions in advertising and dozens of candidate events weekly.

Kamala Harris is winning the popular vote by 2 percent, similar to the Democratic wins in the last two elections. But the latest polls from the seven battleground states are within the margin of error and frequently shift with each new poll. As of today, Harris is ahead in 3 states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, and tied in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Democrats appear to be losing the U.S. Senate due to the expected loss of West Virginia and being behind in Montana. Analysts believe control of the House is a toss-up but that Democrats have slight advantage.

Oct 7 PollBattleground States October 7

Presidential Polls
Above are polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

WATCH:
Kornacki on Meet the Press Oct 6, 2024

RELATED:
Harris Wins the Debate But the Race is Close Sept 20, 2024

Monday, October 7, 2024

What Voters Need to Know: Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

As voting begins, threats to ballot security loom larger. CU Denver’s School of Public Affairs is hosting a public event October 25th featuring election administration officials and academic experts on the dangers of disinformation, misinformation and ongoing threats to a fair and secure election.

Colorado’s 63 elected Clerks and Recorders are the state’s election officials on the front line. They have been given the important responsibility of administering local, state, and federal elections and ensuring they are safe, fair and accurate. However, since the 2020 election, the job has become the focus of a significant amount of misinformation, disinformation and threats of interference.

Discussing misinformation and election security will be:

Deserai Anderson Crow, professor, School of Public Affairs
Matt Crane, Director of the Colorado County Clerk’s Association, former Arapahoe County Clerk

The early evening event will begin at 5:30 pm at the downtown Denver Campus.

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend the discussion (in person or virtually) here.

Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration
Friday, October 25, 2025 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Caraveo Reelection in Danger

Yadira Caraveo and Gabe EvansYadira Caraveo and Gabe Evans

A new poll confirms the observation of most political analysts, Yadira Caraveo’s Democratic House seat is in danger of loss to Republican Gabe Evans. The poll shows a 44% to 44% split, with independent voters preferring Evans by 43% to 35%. She wins Hispanic voters by 9 points, 42% to 33%.

The seat had been shifted to toss-up from “lean” Democrat by the Crystal Ball rating service in early August.

Colorado Congressional Seat Shifts

The district was designed in the 2020 redistricting to be competitive and Caraveo barely won her 2022 inaugural election. She failed to establish much of a political presence the last two years and lags in favorability in the poll 49% for Evans, a one term state legislator, to 43% for her.

The poll was published by Fox 31 / Channel 2/ Emerson College (n 525 ± 42 points)

Colorado Congressional Districts, 118th CongressTwotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

RELATED:
Caraveo Moved to Toss-Up Aug 8 2024

Friday, October 4, 2024

CU Denver Panel on Colorado Ballot Proposals

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On Friday, October 11th, 2024, Colorado ballot issues will be examined by a panel of media and political experts hosted by CU Denver School of Public Affairs from 5:30 to 7:00 p.m. Pollster and Senior Fellow, Floyd Ciruli, will moderate this panel.

Direct democracy is appealing to some voters who believe there are problems legislators don’t address and a ballot initiative can be a solution. But many are concerned by the volume and complexity of the proposals, and 2024 is an example of the issue. Fourteen propositions crowd the ballot ranging from animal rights to guns and from abortion to criminal justice and education. Some, if passed, represent significant changes to public policy which is not necessarily evident in the ballot wording.

The Panel
Discussing the proposals will be:
Seth Klamann, reporter Denver Post, covering statehouse, policy and elections
Kevin Flynn, Denver City Councilman, District 2 (southwest), former Rocky Mountain news reporter
Greg Sobetski, chief economist for Legislative Council with Colorado General Assembly
Floyd Ciruli, panel moderator, pollster, Senior Fellow, CU Center School of Public Affairs

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
October 11, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

RELATED:
Colorado’s Direct Democracy Produces Torrent of Proposals 10/02/24
The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions 10/03/24

Thursday, October 3, 2024

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On Friday, October 11, 2024, several of Colorado’s ballot issues will be examined by a panel of legislative and media experts hosted by CU Denver’s School of Public Affairs. Seven citizen initiatives and seven referred by legislature are on the 2024 ballot. Pollster and Senior Fellow, Floyd Ciruli, will moderate this panel that takes place from 5:30 to 7:00 pm. Participants can attend in person or online.

A proliferation of issues this year range from having a narrow impact to affecting the entire state’s policy and political process. Panelists will discuss whether this is the best way to legislate tax, election rules, wildlife management and culture policy? What are the downsides?

Some issues to examine include:

  • How many of the initiatives are multimillion dollar campaigns that involve signature collection, legal/political consulting and media. The election reform initiative, for example, is part of a well-funded, multistate, multi-year effort to change election rules. Campaigns are frequently one sided in their resources.
  • Initiatives can be used for negotiating with the legislature. In 2024, a triumvirate of the governor, legislative leadership and business-related interest groups changed tax policy.
  • Which are part of national or regional interests wanting to use Colorado’s ballot access and voters for their agendas including fundraising and turnout. This is especially true of cultural issues, e.g., gun control, animal rights, abortion, crime, etc.
  • Why the legislature is getting into the ballot referral process more frequently.
  • How the volume and complexity of the issues can overwhelm voters.
  • Direct democracy involving 14 issues is a challenge for Blue Books and their legislative council draftsmen.

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend the panel discussion, either in person or remotely, here.

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
October 11, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200
Denver, Colorado

RELATED:
Colorado’s Direct Democracy Produces Torrent of Proposals 10/02/24

CU Denver Panel Reviews Our Tumultuous Election Year

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram
On September 6th, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs hosted a panel of Colorado political experts to discuss Election 2024: Colorado and the Country at a Crossroads. More than 80 participants (in person and online) joined brief presentations from the panel and an hour of moderator and audience questions.

The panel, moderated by Pollster and Senior Fellow Floyd Ciruli, reflected on the extraordinary political year after President Biden’s weak debate performance on June 27th and his withdrawal from the race on Sunday, July 21st. The panelists, including a political reporter and representatives from both Democratic and Republican political parties, opined that Kamala Harris might not have been the strongest Democratic replacement candidate but she nevertheless had an extraordinary ascension to the nomination. Harris and Donald Trump are now in a toss-up race. 

Only one of Colorado’s three open Republican congressional seats, the 3rd congressional district on the Western Slope, is still considered worth watching. The newest Democratic seat, encompassing Adams and Weld County (8th), is considered a tossup. 

Many of the 14 statewide ballot issues could have considerable political consequences related to criminal justice (sentencing, bail, funding) school choice and wildlife management. Possibly the most significant initiative will introduce an all candidate, open primary and ranked choice voting – its ramifications representing a dramatic election change for Colorado. 

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs website for more information on future panels here

Sheila MacDonald, media commentator, Democratic political consultant, manager of candidate and ballot issue campaign manager 
Dick Wadhams, media commentator, Channel 4 analyst, consultant, former Republican chair 
Marianne Goodland, chief legislative reporter, Colorado Politics, president of the Denver Press Club
Floyd Ciruli, panel moderator, Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs
Sheila MacDonald, Dick Wadhams, Marianne Goodland and Floyd Ciruli
READ:
Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads 09/04/2024

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Are Polls Accurate?

A poll worker at Montbello High School in Denver. Photo courtesy the Rocky Mountain News archives via the Denver Public LibraryA poll worker at Montbello High School in Denver. Photo courtesy the Rocky Mountain News archives via the Denver Public Library
In a long interview with Rocky Mountain PBS’s reporter Andrea Kramar, the mechanics and trustworthiness of polling was discussed. Concerning polling accuracy, I argued that pollsters are strongly incentivized to be accurate. Their reputations depend on their poll results aligning with the election results. Even candidate and party pollsters need to be accurate, as do liberal and conservative media outlets.

Does liberal or conservative media skew polls?
All these polls at some point have to run up against what happens on election day – our version of the Super Bowl. If you want to stay in the polling business, you better be in the ballpark or else have a good explanation as to what happened.

If you perform poorly?
You won’t get hired. Your newspaper will lose credibility. Newspapers frequently change pollsters when things don’t go well.

READ INTERVIEW:
Reality Check: An insider’s guide to how political polls work

Colorado’s Direct Democracy Produces Torrent of Proposals

CU Denver School of Public AffairsCU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On Friday, October 11, 2024, Colorado ballot issues will be examined by a panel of media and political experts hosted by CU Denver School of Public Affairs from 5:30 to 7:00 p.m. Pollster and Senior Fellow, Floyd Ciruli, will moderate this panel.

Direct democracy is appealing to some voters who believe there are problems legislators don’t address and a ballot initiative can be a solution. But many are concerned by the volume and complexity of the proposals, and 2024 is an example of the issue. Fourteen propositions crowd the ballot ranging from animal rights to guns and from abortion to criminal justice and education. Some, if passed, represent significant changes to public policy which is not necessarily evident in the ballot wording.

Crime & justice
• Change judicial procedures
• Restrict bail for murder
• Narrow parole for violent crime
• Fund law enforcement
• Tax firearms and ammunition

Animals
• Ban mountain lion, bobcat, lynx hunting
• Add veterinary associates

Elections
• Create all candidate open primary - ranked choice voting

School policy
• Add right to school choice

Marriage / abortion
• Repeal marriage definition
• Add right to abortion and funding

Miscellaneous
• Change initiative deadlines
• Change property tax for disabled veterans
• Increase sports betting revenues for water projects

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
October 11, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Electoral Vote Is Calcified

2024 Electoral College ratings
Updated: Sept. 25, 2024Crystal Ball Electoral College rating Updated: Sept. 25, 2024

The electoral vote count of the leading vote forecaster has not changed in the last 30 days. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball published on August 20 showed that the distribution of electoral votes had shifted when Joe Biden was the nominee (Democrats losing 196 to 312) to a slight Kamala Harris advantage (Democrats winning 226 to 219) with 93 toss-up electoral votes in 7 states. Their latest map (see above) published on September 25 has the same electoral count and toss-up states. The Cook Political Report, another forecasting service, agrees.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball

In the last two presidential elections the Democrats have won the popular vote by substantial margins but with close electoral counts. Results were reversed with Donald Trump winning in 2016 by 77 electors and Biden in 2020 by 74. As of today it appears a close election with very little movement since early September.

RELATED
Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote 08/28/2024