The October Surprise is COVID-19

President Trump claims his around-the-clock campaigning the last two weeks in 2016 was responsible for his victory. But, it’s clear he believed the Comey letter was the coup de grâce on Hillary Clinton’s final momentum and a great asset to his message that she was a “crook.”

His effort to find an October surprise to use against Joe Biden (Hunter Biden) began in the summer of 2019 with the Ukrainian President conversation and has continued most recently by pressuring the Attorney General, the FBI director, supportive intelligence officials and Republican Senate Committees.

But the October surprise appears to be the COVID-19 surge, which the President, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and the White House communications team have all argued that COVID-19 is “behind us,” “can’t be managed” or “ending the pandemic was a top administrative accomplishment.”

Those statements may become as well remembered as Republican presidential nominee John McCain’s post Lehman Brothers collapse (Sept. 15) comment: “The fundamentals of the economy are strong.” The polling rapidly turned negative for him and the ticket after beginning close post the Republican Convention. The media coverage also focused much more on economic problems and McCain’s campaign difficulties (he suspended it for a while).

A man carries a box from Lehman Brothers'
offices after the bank failed, 2008 | Getty Images

See: How the Lehman Bros. crisis impacted the 2008 presidential race

Pueblo: Where Does the Old Steel Town Go in 2020 – Red or Back to Blue?

Donald Trump winning Pueblo, Colorado by 290 votes was an earthquake in local politics. The old Democratic stronghold had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon crushed George McGovern in 1972.

The Colorado Sun’s top political reporters, John Frank and Jesse Paul, recount the story of the Democrats’ failure in 2016 and the possible revival of the Democrats’ fortune this year. I told them that for the Third Congressional District race:

“I think Pueblo is the key,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Pueblo native and the director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver.

My view is that Democrat Mitsch Bush must reverse her 2018 loss in Pueblo (1,200 votes) to be able to counter Republican votes from Mesa and other Western Slope counties. (She lost the District to Scott Tipton in 2018 by 8 percentage points). The good news for Mitsch Bush is that another Democratic-sponsored poll shows the race dead even, with Trump only ahead of Joe Biden by one point.

If she can combine various outposts of progressive politics in Routt, Pitkin, San Miguel and Gunnison counties (home to the main ski resorts), she might just win it. In any event, it may be one of the few close races in Colorado Tuesday night worth watching

Election Central – Foreign Policy Impact: U.S. and Japan – Nov. 11

On November 11, join the conversation on the foreign policy impacts of the U.S. election results and its effect on the U.S.-Japanese alliance and policy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Returning is former Dean and frequent Korbel School speaker, Ambassador Christopher Hill, now at Columbia University, joined with Japanese political and election television commentator, Professor Toshihiro Nakayama of Keio University in Tokyo. Crossley Center Professor Floyd Ciruli will review the latest election data and moderate the discussion.

The program is supported by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

2:00 PM MT

November 11, 2020

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Crossley Center Election Coverage Continues

The Crossley Center with the Korbel School and University of Denver are committed to a program that informs the electorate about the issues and political environment and provides opportunities for public engagement. The Friends of the Crossley Center have been in the front row of a series of election-related programs on media, polling and forecasting; Colorado issues and campaigns; and China’s role in the election. Video archives of all the programs are available here.

The program continues through Election Day, and as the final results become clearer, we will shift to foreign policy on Nov. 11th.

Next, the Results – The Nov. 3rd Election: What Happened? Why? What’s Next? – Nov. 4

Is November 3rd the most important election in a generation? Most voters believe it (77% Gallup). On November 4th, Pollster and Professor Floyd Ciruli and Korbel School Dean Fritz Mayer will review what’s known and unknown in the presidential and Senate results. Was it a blue wave or a mixed outcome? What is expected next from election officials, candidates and campaigns – final counts, concessions, lawsuits, demonstrations? 

This discussion is sponsored by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Scrivner Institute of Public Policy.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

3:00 PM MT

November 4, 2020

REGISTER HERE

Election Central – Foreign Policy Impact: U.S. and Japan – Nov. 11

Frequent Korbel School speaker, Ambassador Christopher Hill, now at Columbia University, joins Professor Toshihiro Nakayama, national media commentator from Keio University in Tokyo, Japan, and Crossley Center Director Floyd Ciruli for an update of the U.S. election results and discussion of the foreign policy implications for the U.S. and Japanese alliance from the elections in both countries (Japan just changed prime minister through a parliamentary party selection). 

This program is sponsored by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

2:00 PM MT

November 11, 2020

REGISTER HERE

Colorado Voters to Decide Eleven Ballot Issues, Some Appear Close

Although Colorado is now predicted to give Democrats an advantage in the presidential and senate races, will the state’s voters continue to be as conservative on tax and spending issues as they were in ballot initiative elections in 2018 and 2019? There are several on the ballot attracting considerable money and attention. In the Crossley Center chart below, funding amounts are from Ballotpedia. Three different polls are listed as indicated.

Proposition 116, the income tax reduction, has attracted more than $3 million in contributions and the only poll claims it is ahead 51 percent to 35 percent. Possibly the most expensive item on the ballot, Proposition 118 for paid employee leave, has received more than $7 million in contributions and two polls indicate it will win with about 60 percent of the public in favor.

Not surprising, the most complicated issue on the ballot, Amendment B, the Gallagher removal amendment, has few voters certain of their preferences. Only 39 percent make a selection in one poll. Proponents of removal have an advantage in funding of $4.7 million to only about $200,000 for opponents. But when there is doubt and confusion, a “no” vote becomes a final choice. (The CU poll offered two versions of the question. Both had more than 30% “don’t know.”)

The 2020 ballot also includes a highly polarizing social issue, abortion, with Proposition 115 banning late-term abortions. It has attracted the most money – nearly $8 million, mostly in opposition. Early polls showed voters divided 42 percent to 45 percent, but with an advantage for opponents.

Another issue, paid leave has attracted massive out-of-state contributions of $7 million and is substantially ahead according to the polls.

Finally, national contributions poured into Proposition 113, a repeal of the statutory effort to leave the Electoral College with other like-minded states. Four million dollars out of a total of $6 million has been attracted by the popular vote out-of-state advocates.

Debates are Over, But “Nothing’s Moving the Numbers”

Valerie Richardson in a Washington Times interview wrote an analysis of why the many October (and some September) surprises don’t appear to be having an effect, or as I told her:

“Is there something out there? Is there a five-point shift in Hunter or in a late October surprise?” Mr. Ciruli said. “I don’t know. I’ve been waiting for it, the surprise that moves things. I’ve seen so many things that I thought might be the surprise, and nothing’s moving the numbers.”

Richardson reviewed a host of late campaign surprises, rumored and actual.

• Vietnam peace deal – Humphrey, 1968
• Iranian hostages – Carter, 1980
• DUI arrest in Miami – W. Bush, 2000
• Lehman Brothers crash – McCain, 2008
• Superstorm Sandy – Romney, 2012
• Access Hollywood tapes – Trump, 2016
• Comey letter – Clinton, 2016
• Woodward’s book and tapes – Trump, 2020
• Trump’s taxes – Trump, 2020
• Hunter Biden – Biden, 2020
• The debates – Trump/Biden, 2020

Floyd Ciruli, director of the University of Denver Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, said the whirlwind year made it difficult for The New York Times’ reporting about Mr. Trump’s tax returns, for example, to take root.

“The story got some traction, but the next thing you knew you had the debate, and the story was pushed back, and then the president got the virus, and then the debate got pushed back,” said Mr. Ciruli. “So there’s just so many events piled up that it’s hard to not only get traction but to affect the electorate and tighten the race.”

If the media cycle moves too quickly for such surprises to resonate with the voters, Mr. Trumps may bear some of the blame with his constant changing of the conversation.

“What we’re in is a completely different news cycle than even four years ago,” Mr. Ciruli said. “Partially, it’s that our news consumption is different, but it’s also Trump. Because he is so news-needy and is in the news so much, there is something every day superseding what just happened.”

Secretary of State Attempts to Promote Civil Behavior at the Polls

In an unusual election season characterized by a lack of civil discourse, protests, sometimes turning violent, and armed groups threatening to patrol voting sites, the Colorado Secretary of State is trying to lower tensions at polling sites. In an article in the Colorado Springs Independent by Pam Zubeck, the Colorado Secretary of State ruled that wearing apparel identified with a candidate or party was acceptable if it didn’t say vote for or specifically mention a candidate. Hence, MAGA hats and BLM t-shirts were approved.

Floyd Ciruli of Ciruli and Associates, a political polling, consulting and analysis firm in Denver, says he views the Secretary of State's guidance as an attempt to strike a compromise and give poll workers distinct direction on what is and isn't allowed.

Noting that Trump has issued a call for action for supporters to "watch" polls and that concerns have arisen about violence associated with the election, Ciruli says, "This sounds to me like an effort to find a line here for polling workers to be able to say 'no' to some things that are direct advocacy and not raise objections [to the MAGA insignia]," which doesn't specifically name a candidate.

"It's obviously a compromise," he says, adding, "I can't imagine a harder job than policing polling places."

Trump supporters wear MAGA hats at a Feb. 20 rally
in Colorado Springs, Feb. 20, 2020 | Zach Hillstrom

Election Central Videos Are Now Available

Many Friends of the Crossley Center have requested the videos of the election Zoom programs held this October. They are now ready for viewing. Join Professor Ciruli as he hosts Election Central programs. 

Forecasting and Who Wins the Presidency and Senate – October 13

Jessica Taylor, an editor of the Cook Political Report, one of the most followed forecasting publications, described the Cook Political Report’s latest presidential and U.S. Senate predictions, including Colorado. WATCH VIDEO

Election Night 2020: Long Night, Long Count – October 16

A panel of media and election experts on what the election night will look like in Colorado and across the country. The panel:

• Tim Ryan, veteran 9KUSA Assistant News Director and now Director of Content
• Shaun Boyd, CBS4 political reporter
• John Frank, political reporter, Colorado Sun and formerly Denver Post
• Amber McReynolds, former head of Denver Elections Department and now CEO of National Vote at Home Institute

WATCH VIDEO

Colorado Political Experts: Two Weeks Out – October 21

A panel of top political, policy and media experts discussed the competitive races in Colorado: presidential, senate and congressional, legislature and ballot issues. The panel:

• Dick Wadhams, former Republican Chair, consultant, CBS4 commentator and Denver Post columnist
• Sheila MacDonald, veteran consultant to leading Democratic campaigns and numerous local and statewide ballot issues
• Joey Bunch, editor, senior writer, columnist for Colorado Politics and the new Denver Gazette

WATCH VIDEO

The U.S. and China in the 2020 Election – A New Cold War? – Sept. 30

Will the next administration inherit a new Cold War regardless of who wins? Professors Floyd Ciruli and Suisheng “Sam” Zhao discussed the issues. WATCH VIDEO

Election Central: Pre-Labor Day Update – Sept. 1

Join Professor Floyd Ciruli in a pre-Labor Day review of the major issues, such as the pandemic, race relations and the economy, and the position of the campaigns and the major questions related to polls and forecasts. WATCH VIDEO

Podcast: Political Polls: Can We Trust Them? 

For those of you who want to know more about what happened with the 2016 presidential polls and if it could happen again, tune into a DU RadioEd podcast on the subject. LISTEN HERE

Recreational Marijuana on the Ballot. Does It Help or Hurt Democrats?

Eleven states have legalized recreational marijuana and three more – Arizona, Montana and South Dakota – have it on this year’s ballot. David Sherfinski of the Washington Times reviews the argument made by proponents of legalization that it helps Democrats on the ballot, including this year, Joe Biden.

I stated that ballot initiative advocates always argue that initiatives effect turnout. In a presidential race, the evidence for it is thin.

“All of those advocates, some are conservative, some are liberal, argue it’ll help,” Mr. Ciruli said. “Whether it does or not, I haven’t seen a lot of evidence. My sense is, generally, that a presidential race dominates what people talk about.”

A marijuana dispensary in Denver | Scott Lentz

Colorado Headed for Record Voter Turnout – More Than 3 Million

More than half the 2016 turnout has already voted as Colorado approaches a record turnout of between 3.2 and 3.5 million voters. It represents a dramatic increase above the 2,780,000 Coloradans that voted in the 2016 presidential election.

The rapid rush of mail-back voting, with more than half the expected vote in the county clerks’ offices, with a week to go. Data comes from a daily report being issued by the Secretary of State.

October 23 U.S. Election Project

• Texas: 6.4 million (71% of 2016 total)
• North Carolina: 2.7 million (57% of 2016 total)
• Georgia: 2.3 million (56% of 2016 total)
• Florida: 4.7 million (50% of 2016 total)
• Colorado: 1.4 million (50% of 2016 total) (Oct. 27 – now 1.8 million)
• Arizona: 1.2 million (45% of 2016 total)
• Iowa: 685,000 (44% of 2016 total)
• Michigan: 2.0 million (41% of 2016 total)
• Wisconsin: 1.2 million (41% of 2016 total)
• Nevada: 371,000 (33% of 2016 total)
• Ohio: 1.6 million (29% of 2016 total)
• Pennsylvania: 1.5 million (24% of 2016 total)

Early mail-back voting should ensure a smooth Election Night with data available early. Some close elections may require extra time for counting, but the Colorado system remains a national model.

Democratic and unaffiliated voters dominate the early returns, but Republicans will improve their performance closer to Election Day, with some taking President Trump’s advice to vote in-person.

The demographics of early returns track with historical trends of women voting early being more Democratic and early voting men more likely to be unaffiliated and Republican voters. Older voters (45 years old and older, Baby Boomers and Silent) dominate early returns over early participation of Gen X, Gen Z and Millennials by nearly two-to-one. The top 11 counties have 85 percent of the early votes.

Aurora has Changed

Aurora has changed from a modest suburban bedroom community to a significant urban area doubling in population since the 1980s. And, its politics have evolved from mostly a moderate Republicanism characterized by its mayors – from the Tauer family. Paul and Ed (1987 to 2011), to Steve Hogan (2011 to 2018). But in 2019, the former Republican congressman, Mike Coffman, barely won an election, and was joined by a city council increasingly dominated by a progressive majority, with one self-identifying socialist.

In a long article by Dennis Huspeni in Colorado Politics (10-18-20), I attributed the shift primarily to the growth and changing demographics of the electorate: 

Republicans are actually in third place among registered voters in Arapahoe County, behind Democrats and independents, said longtime Colorado political pollster and analyst Floyd Ciruli, Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion and Research at the University of Denver.

At the behest of the Arapahoe County commissioners, Ciruli conducted a study in 2017-18 to get a better handle on the changing nature of the county’s demographics.

“Arapahoe County and Aurora for a long time was moderately Republican, producing politicians like (former Colorado Governor) Bill Owens and Mike Coffman,” Ciruli said.

But the study showed a “huge influx” of younger people – many of whom were minorities. The study showed 28% of the county’s population to be Hispanic, and the African American population almost doubled to 17% since the 2010 Census.

Those changing demographics had a large impact on that pivotal 2018 election “sweep” in Arapahoe County.

“I think the (Republican) party was shell shocked at the growth and changing ethnicity,” Ciruli said.

Mayor Coffman suggested it was just the normal national swing of the electorate in off-year elections, and without being specific, the negative impact of President Donald Trump. In which case, there might be relief for local Republicans in 2021 and 2020. We shall see.

Aurora Municipal Center | John Leyba, special to Colorado Politics

Larimer County May Sweep Democrats into Power

Larimer County has been growing with younger, well-educated, environmentally-minded voters, often registering unaffiliated, but voting more liberal and more Democratic. An article by Jacy Marmaduke in the Fort Collins Coloradoan described the new political environment. Two Republican-held county commissioner seats are open with the possibility that an unpopular president could produce the 2018 effect when a long held county assessor’s seat shifted to the Democrats.

Senator Cory Gardner, who carried the county in 2014 by 539 votes, will need to hold any loss this year to a bare minimum. But with statewide polling showing him behind John Hickenlooper by 10 points, it’s not likely he’ll be close in the county.

My observation was:

Trump’s unpopularity in Colorado is the biggest obstacle Gardner faces for reelection, longtime political analyst Floyd Ciruli said. About 57% of Coloradans disapprove of Trump, according to the Colorado Sun’s average of 2020 polling. Recent polls project Trump will lose by upward of 10% here.

“I don’t think (Gardner) will do as poorly as the president, but it is almost inconceivable that he can overcome that deficit,” Ciruli said. “The president of the United States is just incredibly powerful in terms of shaping public opinion and voting in the party.”

Gardner has faced a conundrum throughout the campaign season, Ciruli said: He had to distance himself from Trump to gain votes without inspiring ire from the president or his “vindictive” base. That line has been historically difficult to walk, Ciruli said, recalling former Rep. Mike Coffman, who touted a relatively moderate record and still lost to Democratic Rep. Jason Crow as Denver’s suburban voters trended blue in 2018.

Sen. Cory Gardner | Photo: Colorado Sun

The Nov. 3rd Election: What Happened? Why? What’s Next?

The public believes November 3 will be the most important election in a generation. On November 4, Dean Fritz Mayer and Professor Floyd Ciruli will review what’s known and unknown in the presidential and senate results. Was it decisive or a muddle? What is expected next from election officials, candidates and campaigns – concessions, lawsuits, demonstrations?

This discussion is sponsored by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Korbel School of International Studies and the Scrivner Institute of Public Policy.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

3:00 PM MDT

November 4, 2020

REGISTER HERE

Wolf Blitzer on Election Night 2016 | CNN photo

Colorado Election Experts – Two Weeks Out

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research presents a Zoom conversation on October 21 at 3:00 pm MT with a panel of top political, policy and media experts discussing the competitive races in Colorado: presidential, senate and congressional, legislature and ballot issues. Will Colorado finally end the Gallagher Amendment after the previous failed attempts? Does the state want to join the popular vote and leave the Electoral College behind? Is the public about to move away from reproductive choice?

Join Professor Floyd Ciruli and the panel as they provide their opinions on the state of the election.

• Dick Wadhams, former Republican Chair, consultant, CBS4 commentator and Denver Post columnist
• Sheila MacDonald, veteran consultant to leading Democratic campaigns and numerous local and statewide ballot issues
• Joey Bunch, editor, senior writer, columnist for Colorado Politics and the new Denver Gazette

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

3:00 PM MDT

OCTOBER 21, 2020

REGISTER HERE

A Biden Administration Will Face a Changed World

If Biden wins, America First is gone, but American workers will be a touchstone. Those policy initiatives in Trumpism that feature manufacturing and U.S. workers may be modified, but the goals remain. A Biden administration will shift focus and rhetoric to alliances, democracy, human rights, climate change and internationalism, like the UN and WHO, but it will have to adjust to new realities outlined below.

Considering U.S. and world trends, reflected in public opinion and political actions, several policy aspects of the last four years will still be around if the administration changes:

• Populism and polarization. Intense ideological division and charismatic-style leaders able to exploit it are a feature in western democracies.
• Hard borders. Nationalism that is leading to hostility to immigrants and refugees has worldwide appeal.
• Free trade. Globalism is in retreat and protectionism, tariffs and other barriers to free trade are in accedence.
• Isolationism. Reducing America’s international military and financial commitments are supported by both parties, but with different philosophies and emphasis.
• China conflict. Rivalry between China and the U.S. is not likely to dissipate and could intensify and expand.

REGISTER NOW! Election Night 2020: Long Night, Long Count – October 16

With early and mail-back voting underway, join Professor Floyd Ciruli and a panel of media and election experts on October 16 at 3:00 pm MT for a virtual conversation on what the election night will look like across the country. 

The panel:

• Tim Ryan, veteran 9KUSA assistant news director and now director of content
• Shaun Boyd, CBS4 political reporter
• John Frank, Political reporter, Colorado Sun and formerly Denver Post
• Amber McReynolds, former head of Denver Elections Department and now CEO of National Vote at Home Institute

JOIN US ON ZOOM

OCTOBER 16, 2020

3:00 PM MT

REGISTER HERE

Crossley Center Adds New Fall Election Programs

In a political year with multiple surprises, the Crossley Center is adding new programs. We’ve included a panel on political forecasting, especially the presidential and senate races, to be led by a national expert. Also, with the voting process in question, a panel on the counting and reporting of election night results with Colorado media and election experts has been scheduled. The implications of the election for foreign policy will be reviewed a week after the election with top experts in international affairs. To stay current on this tumultuous election, join our Zoom programs in the Crossley Center Election Central. 

Forecasting and Who Wins the Presidency and Senate – October 13

Jessica Taylor, editor of the Cook Report senate and governor section, details the science of forecasting and the predictions on the presidential and U.S. Senate races, including Colorado. Korbel School Dean, Fritz Mayer, will participate. Join the Zoom program at 3:00 pm on October 13. REGISTER HERE

Election Night 2020: Long Night, Long Count – October 16

What will election night look like in a state with mail-back voting? When can we expect results and how will they be reported? Join Colorado election officials and media leaders to hear the plans and concerns. Mark your calendar for October 16 at 3:00 pm on Zoom. REGISTER HERE

Colorado Political Experts Election Panel: Presidential, Senate and Third Congressional – October 21

Colorado’s best political analysts – Sheila MacDonald, Democratic consultant; Dick Wadhams, former Republican Chairman; and Joey Bunch, Colorado Politics editor – will share their assessments of the major races and ballot issues as early voting starts. They will also discuss Election Night and what they expect as the returns roll in. Zoom, October 21 at 3:00 pm. REGISTER HERE

Election 2020: What Happened? Why? – November 4

On November 4, Dean Fritz Mayer and Professor Floyd Ciruli will discuss the available results and lead a conversation of what happened and why. Zoom, 3:00 pm, November 4. SAVE THE DATE

Foreign Policy Impact: U.S. and Japan – November 11

Join Ambassador Christopher Hill from Columbia University and Toshihiro Nakayama from Keio University in Tokyo, Japan, for our update on the U.S. election results and the foreign policy implications for the U.S. and Japan alliance from the elections in both countries (Japan just changed Prime Ministers through a parliamentary party selection). The relationship with China will also be discussed. Zoom, 3:00 pm, November 11. SAVE THE DATE

Podcast: Political Polls: Can We Trust Them? 

For those of you who want to know more about what happened with the 2016 presidential polls and if it could happen again, tune into a DU RadioEd podcast for a discussion with Professor Floyd Ciruli on the subject. LISTEN HERE

The U.S. and China in the 2020 Election – A New Cold War?

Professors Floyd Ciruli and Suisheng “Sam” Zhao discussed the issues to 200 friends of the Crossley Center. Is China an issue in the 2020 election? Will the next administration inherit a new Cold War regardless of who wins? WATCH VIDEO

Voting Starts, Trump and Gardner Down. Time Running Out.

The latest 9KUSA-Colorado Politics poll ends the faint speculation that Cory Gardner’s final advertising and debate performances might close the senate race to within striking distance. The survey of 1,021 likely voters out of the field on October 6, three days before Colorado’s mail-back ballot voting started, showed Gardner behind John Hickenlooper by 9 points, about his average deficit since the race formerly began after the June 30 primary. Unfortunately for his senate career, Gardner is trailing President Trump, who has been spectacularly unpopular with a majority of Coloradans since he lost the state to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 5 points. Gardner was never able to break out the twin challenges Colorado Republicans must deal with: the growth of a younger, more liberal electorate since his election in 2014 and Donald J. Trump.

The poll confirms all the trends that have been burdening the Colorado Republican Party, especially since the 2018 landslide against their candidates. Gardner is losing women by 19 points, but only winning men by 2. He breaks even with voters 50 years old plus (44% R to 45% D), but loses voters under 50 by 17 points. He almost ties the Anglo vote (43% R to 45% D), but is crushed by Hispanic voters by 27 points, and they represent 17 percent of the estimated voting population. And importantly in Colorado, he’s losing voters who label themselves independents by 15 points and self-identified moderates by 19.

Gardner will carry Colorado rural votes 46 percent to 42 percent for Hickenlooper (16% of the statewide vote), but lose the suburbs by 4 points, which is more than half the vote (56%), and be crushed in the urban areas by 23 points.

This poll indicates that the senate race hasn’t changed yet, voting has started and there are less than three weeks left.

Xi, Putin and Trump Not Trusted Among World Democracies

In a Pew Research survey, the publics in 13 democracies – primarily in Europe, but including Japan, South Korea and Australia – rated presidents Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the lowest levels of trust and confidence that they would do the “right thing in world affairs.”

Mr. Putin would not be surprised or too concerned. He mostly controls his domestic opinion and his propaganda efforts (e.g., RT – formerly Russia Today) targets and undermines Western European and American democracies.

Although Mr. Xi’s gestures to woo democratic publics with well-crafted speeches appealing to democratic values and policies at the UN and Davos, he’s actually mostly interested in winning friends among the world’s autocracies for economic and strategic advantage. His primary argument is that China’s one-party dictatorship and authoritarianism is a success to be envied and emulated.

Of course, Mr. Trump has made clear his view that America has been a victim and has mostly been taken advantage of by its democratic allies. He’s not surprised by his lack of popularity. But as a reality TV star, hospitality entrepreneur and world brand manager, he must be concerned at some level at the impact of his American First, transactional approach to world affairs. This poll has an ominous message for his post presidency options. More importantly, it signals America is at the nadir of its respect and soft power influence in the world.

The Ciruli Associates Poll That Launched John Hickenlooper’s Career

In 2001, the name of Mile High Stadium was a controversy and I conducted a metro poll for then LoDo restaurateur John Hickenlooper to determine if the stadiums’ name should be sold to a business or kept as “Mile High.” Two-thirds said keep the name. As Hickenlooper describes in his book, “Opposite of Woe: My Life in Beer and Politics,” that was the beginning of his interest in politics and his first success in changing a public policy. 

Soon, he’s likely to join the U.S. Senate. It’s “been quite a ride.”

Read: Naming Rights Starts John Hickenlooper’s Career

Senate Leadership – Who Wins Nov. 3rd?

Is it Mitch or Chuck? They each lead dramatically different teams and agendas. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been in charge since Republicans won a majority in 2014, which included the election of then Colorado Congressperson Cory Gardner. His top deputies are senators John Thune (South Dakota), John Barrasso (Wyoming), Roy Blunt (Missouri) and John Cornyn who recently rotated out of Majority Whip position (up for reelection in Texas).

Charles “Chuck” Schumer has been Minority Leader since Harry Reid (Nevada) retired in 2016. His top deputy is Dick Durbin of Illinois with Patty Murray (Washington) and Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts).

Also, voters in November will select a vice president who can vote to break a tie.

Currently, President Trump’s election difficulties are endangering McConnell’s majority. Cory Gardner’s fate may be the one that decides the Senate leadership in 2021.

The U.S. and China in the 2020 Election – A New Cold War?

Is China an issue in the 2020 election? Are presidential campaigns likely to affect China policy? Will the next administration inherit a new Cold War regardless of who wins?

Professors Floyd Ciruli and Suisheng “Sam” Zhao discuss the issues to 200 friends of the Crossley Center.

WATCH VIDEO

Ciruli Family Reunion – Ten Year Anniversary

Ten years ago, the Ciruli family organized a reunion of several generations in their home county of Pueblo, Colorado – more than 150 family members, from their 80s down to those enjoying a bounce house.

Several members born in the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s have since passed away, but the family thrives throughout Colorado and nationally, especially in the West. Today, I spend much time on the California coast, and my cousin, Charles “Chuck” Ciruli, is with his family south of Tucson, Arizona.

We had two young cousins from the family in Rome and they are doing well. We miss seeing all the family, but as the times improve, hopefully we can be together again before long.

Buena fortuna!

Read: From the Apennines to the Rockies

Forecasting and Who Wins the Presidency and Senate

Jessica Taylor, editor at the Cook Political Report, one of the most followed forecasting publications, will join the Friends of the Crossley Center and the Korbel School to discuss the process of forecasting and why a candidate’s ratings may change. She will also describe the Cook Political Report’s latest presidential and U.S. Senate race predictions, including Colorado.

Join Professor Floyd Ciruli and Korbel School Dean Fritz Mayer on October 13 at 3:00 pm MT for a virtual conversation on the 2020 election as early voting is underway in Colorado and other states around the country. 

JOIN US ON ZOOM

OCTOBER 13, 2020

3:00 PM MT

REGISTER HERE

Cook Political Report, Sept. 30, 2020

Americans Say Russia Will Attempt to Disrupt the Election

Most Americans (75%) believe “Russia or other foreign governments” will attempt to influence our election this November. The percentage of the public concerned about Russian or other interferences has increased by 8 percentage points the last two years, up from 67 percent in the 2018 election.

FBI Director Christopher Wray testified September 17 before the Homeland Security Committee that indeed Russia is actively interfering in the U.S. presidential campaign. As CNN reports:

According to Wray, Russia is using social media, proxies, state media and online journals to sow "divisiveness and discord" and "primarily to denigrate Vice President Biden and what the Russians see as kind of an anti-Russian establishment."