Trump’s Agenda Could be Volatile for Market

Donald Trump won the presidency largely on nostalgia for his economic success in his first term. In 2016, he inherited a recovery from the great recession of 2008 and then accelerated it with a substantial tax cut, jawboning down interest rates and lifting some regulatory burden. The Dow rose 10,000 points from 19,000 shortly after his November 2016 election to more than 29,000 in early 2020 (pre-COVID). But, as Joe Biden ends his term, the Dow has crossed 44,000, a spectacular 14,000 point rise during his four years. And the DOW is the laggard index with the NAZ up 32 percent and the S&P up 28, the second year of double digit increases for both.

But Trump’s Day One agenda of tariffs, massive deportations and cuts in federal discretionary spending could have significant costs in terms of economic disruption and inflation. Trump, himself, finally admitted that his program could cause prices to rise. In his Sunday, December 8, Meet the Press interview, when asked about possible high consumer prices from his trade penalties, said, “I can’t guarantee anything. I can’t guarantee tomorrow.”

Although corporate leadership, especially in the financial markets, see mostly positive results from Trumps’ agenda, the construction, agriculture, and hospitality industry have all predicted significant impact on their costs from mass deportations of undocumented workers. And most economists still predict a bad effect from more tariffs and the possible trade war they initiate.

The latest consumer price index report is up (2.7%) confirming inflation is not yet tamed and the Federal Reserve faces difficult decisions on keeping the current rate or continuing to lower it. The American economy is entering a volatile 100 days as Trump launches his administration.

RELATED:
Bull Market Continues to Run Feb 29, 2024
Waiting for the Federal Reserve May 21, 2024

There Will Be Blood

First day of Legistlative Session 2023 | Photo: Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun

The headlines tell the story, “There Will Be Blood,” Senator Jeff Bridges, chair of the JBC is quoted in Denver Axios in a report of the state budget with a $1 billion gap and draconian cuts expected. Denver just passed a restrained budget without their usual amendments for add-ons from City Council.

• State and local governments cut 2025 budgets. Colorado budget writers warn “There will be blood”. (Axios 12-2-24) “Denver Mayor Johnston unveils slim spending plan for city”. (Axios 9-12-24)

This restraint is not a surprise. Recent reports highlight factors contributing to Colorado’s and the Denver metro area’s new fiscal reality:

• Population growth slowed dramatically since 2020. “Coloradans are making fewer babies and migration can’t be counted on to fill the gap”. (Denver Post 11-18-24)
• Metro area and state sales tax revenue stopped growing in 2023 and is now below last year - “Sales tax recession”. (Ciruli Buzz 11-14-24) This is within the context of a myriad of recent local government tax and wage rate increases. ”Is Johnston’s tax in trouble?” (Ciruli Buzz 9-12-24)
• Jobs growth in Colorado slowed in 2024. “Colorado’s job picture weaker than previously known.” (Axios 8-22-24)
• Federal dollars from COVID relief have ended and the Trump administration promises a new austerity and even cuts. End of federal COVID money means shortfalls for states and schools. (Governing 2-2-24)

Persons and groups planning new taxes and expenditures in 2025 will have a difficult environment.

Democrats’ Missteps Move Public Opinion Against Immigration

Ellis Island Immigrants | Photos: NYC Public Library

The White House and much of the Democratic Party establishment support of a chaotic and inadequate border policy since 2021 helped lead to a flood of migrants, which was not firmly addressed until too late in 2024.

Not only did the White House gridlock provide the top issue Donald Trump used for his political recovery and final campaign, but new polls show public opinion, including among Democrats, has moved firmly against immigration. A sad legacy for Joe Biden and the Open Border, human rights advocates who captured a policy for their clients and ignored the political cost.

The latest Gallup poll captures the massive shift in political opinion which started in 2022. In 1920 and 21, opinion was closely divided across increasing, decreasing, or keeping the same level of immigration. “In your view, should immigration be kept at its present level, increased or decreased?” The public is now more than 3 to 1 in favor of decreased immigration above increased. The 55 percent majority that want immigration reduced is the highest since 2001.

The change is impacting all voters, with 88 percent of Republicans for a decrease (up 15% from 2023), independents now 50 percent for a decrease (up 11% since last year) and 28 percent of Democrats (up 10 percent from 2023).

It provides the political leverage for the incoming Trump Administration to seriously advocate a near shutdown of immigration, massive deportation (potentially millions) and 25 percent tariffs.

KOA Election Night Coverage

The 2024 presidential election was slated to be close but became a Donald Trump and Republican sweep.

850 KOA live coverage and analysis of the early returns Tuesday, November 5, highlighted the difficult night Kamala Harris and Democrats were likely to have. Managing the booth for iHeartMedia was executive producer Ryan Schuiling directing field reports and guest interviews, including Senators John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet. Kathy Walker, news director, Jeana Gondek, morning host, and Ross Kaminski, talk show host provided reports and analysis.

By 8:30 p.m., the pattern was set as states were called for their electoral votes and U.S. Senate races. My analysis during the broadcast:

• Polling showed Democratic weakness with the Hispanic/Latino community and the early-reported, massive Dade County and Florida votes for Trump, was ominous for Democrats.
• Weakness in the Wisconsin returns for Harris highlighted the Blue Wall was fragile and Trump could win at least 5 battleground states. He won all seven.
• When Sherrod Brown lost his Ohio Senate seat, it became clear the Republican strength would affect down ballot races. At least six senate seats were in play. Republicans won 4 along with the House of Representatives.
• The highly competitive 8th Congressional District remained within a few thousand votes. Field reports observed both camps were hopeful but stressed, and went home as the snow piled up Tuesday night. By Saturday late votes gave the win to Republicans.
• Voters picked their way through a long and complicated ballot. Liberals in Colorado were pleased abortion and gay rights did well on the statewide ballot but the law and order position on parole, bail, and police funding dominated. Also, the Mayor of Denver lost his $100 million tax increase for housing. Statewide and Denver voters rejected bans of lion hunting, fur sales and a slaughterhouse. Finally, the multimillion dollar campaign for election reform failed.

The 2024 national election was a major shock for Democrats and much of the political/cultural establishment. America has entered a new political era and major changes are coming.

RELATED
The Buzz Called Trump the Likely Winner – November 4 Nov 18, 2024
Fox News Interview with Harris – KOA Morning Show Nov 1, 2024
Transition, Biden to Harris: KOA Morning Show Aug 1, 2024
KOA – Iowa and New Hampshire Jan 22, 2024

Orange County Voters Support Law and Order and Democrats Hold Ground

OC Congressional Map via https://ocvote.gov

Three quarters of Orange County voters support Proposition 36 for stricter prosecution and punishment of drug and property crimes (69% statewide). Kamala Harris beat Trump by 2 points (20 points statewide) but Adam Schiff was losing to Steve Garvey by a few votes on November 19. Democrats were successful in three competitive Congressional districts. They won the Mike Levin Congressional seat (17,000 votes) and held the Katie Porter open seat with Dave Min (9,000 votes). Derek Tran is ahead of incumbent Michelle Steel (314 votes 11-19-24).

Also, OC voters supported school and wildfire, climate bonds (about 52% for each) and constitutional marriage rights (57%). Like voters statewide, they rejected housing bonds (38%), minimum wage (38%), rent control (35%), and banning inmate forced work (42%). As the table below shows, OC voters are about 5 points more conservative on each proposition.

Orange County maintains its reputation as a competitive county for the parties and moderate-to-conservative on the issues.

The Country Moves to the Right, Including Colorado

From left to right: Jeff Herd, Jeff Crank, and Gabe Evans

Immediately after the election, Colorado Democrats were arguing the state provided a Blue Wall and didn’t shift to the right with the rest of the nation, but the defeat of Congressperson Caraveo mostly ended that discussion. And in fact, Colorado voters, including many Democrats, were out of sync with the party’s direction on several key issues:

• Along with losing a congressional district that will help Republicans pad their renewed majority, they failed to win the 3rd District, which was within sight before Lauren Boebert moved, but is now represented by a Republican, Jeff Herd, likely to be in office for many years. The state’s other new Congressperson, Jeff Crank, represents a non-MAGA conservative leader, helping build a new center of the Republican Party. Also, Boebert, the Democrat’s chief antagonist, won her new district handily.
  
  
• The state’s voters supported a package of law and order propositions on the state ballot related to parole, bail, and funding police that are not part of the Democratic agenda. Animal rights groups lost bans of lion hunting, and in Denver, bans of fur products and a slaughter house were beaten solidly.
  
  Denver Democrats defeated their new Mayor’s $100 million sales tax increase for housing, reflecting exhaustion for new taxes and ill-defined programs.
  
  
• Democrats failed to achieve their top goal of a super majority in the state senate and lost their super majority in the state house. One of the state’s historic working class Democratic strongholds with a large Hispanic voting base, Pueblo County, gave Donald Trump a 4,000 vote edge, elected another Republican county commissioner and a Republican DA. The city already has a Republican mayor.

As Democrats return to D.C. facing a trifecta of dedicated opposition and local Democrats assemble at the legislature to manage a diminished state budget, they should realistically examine their policies and tactics in light of this election.

Election 2024: Candidate and Party Vulnerabilities

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

In their respective 2024 presidential campaigns, the professionals in each party analyzed the opposition’s vulnerabilities and spent most of their campaign energy highlighting them. The following graphic displays each party’s weaknesses. Polling and content analysis show the Democrats’ vulnerabilities of incumbency, inflation and immigration were the greater liability.

Donald Trump’s greatest vulnerability was his own personality and character. Kamala Harris opened and closed her campaign focused on it. Harris’s biggest vulnerability was having been in office the last four years with the aftermath of the pandemic, the economic disruption – especially inflation, and a world in greater conflict. She inherited the weakness of the incumbent, President Joe Biden. And of course, Trump never stopped discussing immigration, which he linked to crime and all manner of other problems. Unfortunately for Democrats, the voters, even liberal Californians, are angry about crime and weak prosecution. They regularly remove controversial district attorneys. Although Trump’s personal focus on inflation and DEI was at a lower level, it was a major feature of online and legacy media advertising, especially during football games, “Kamala’s for they/them. President Trump is for you.”

Besides Trump’s personality, the Democrats’ most influential issue was abortion. Trump was never able to get around his responsibility for overturning Roe v. Wade and the extreme views of many Republican legislatures. Democrats also focused much attention on the threat to democracy that the January 6 violence posed and Trump’s responsibility for it. His authoritative rhetoric highlighted by the Madison Square Garden rally made it a major Democratic issue late in the campaign.

On Friday, November 8, Floyd Ciruli presented the “Vulnerabilities” at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs program on the election aftermath. Some 100 participants joined a Zoom panel discussion as a foot of snow closed the school. It was the last of a 5-session program on the election. Ciruli, a Senior Fellow of the school developed the program with Dean Paul Teske and moderated three of the panels.

READ:
First Friday Breakfast Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead

The Buzz Called Trump the Likely Winner – November 4

In a last blog post before election day (https://fciruli.blogspot.com/2024/11/race-tight- harris-now-behind.html), the weekend polls showed Kamala Harris lost the lead she held since early September in popular vote and was behind by a fraction in most of the battleground states to Donald Trump. I said if the RCP aggregate of polls is accurate, she could lose both the popular and electoral vote to Trump. He won the popular vote by 2 points and swept all battleground states. His 312 electoral votes exceed his 2016 win (304) and Biden’s in 2020 (306).

Although the polling missed the Red Wave, it did perceive the direction of the race had shifted against Harris. She never translated her popular support to the battleground states, where she struggled for a consistent lead after her nomination. Polling is still dealing with a specific Trump voter problem. They are less inclined to participate in polls and more obscure in the voting environment.

Presidential Pollss
Above are polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

KOA – Election Night Analyses
Floyd Ciruli joined the KOA news and commentary team November 5 election night to report results, analyze the trends, and highlight the winners and losers.

Five Colorado Election Takeaways

Denver Country Club, Denver, Colorado

The following are five takeaways from Colorado’s November election. Although the Democrats held their dominance in the legislature and Kamala Harris won the state by 11 percent as predicted, Republicans won a new congressional seat and voters moved toward a more conservative position on law and order.

1. Colorado’s Democrat freshman congressperson lost due to immigration and a low-key first term. The Gabe Evans win made a contribution to House Republican majority.
2. Lauren Boebert saved her job. Her MAGA identity overcame the carpetbagger label and Beetlejuice reputation. But Douglas County, which is about half the district, is barely on board. With Donald Trump in White House, she will continue to be a lightning rod for Colorado Republicans.
3. Republican Party filled two out of three of its open seats with more mainstream members. Jeff Hurd and Jeff Crank can become the base of a more competitive party.
4. Voters strongly supported a package of law and order measures related to bail bonds, parole, and money for police. Denver Democrats, paused on a hefty new sales tax for housing but voters in the metro area said yes to large school bond packages.
5. A new election system sold by advocates of reduced party control of politics failed. They spent nearly $20 million to sell the proposal with an underfunded opposition campaign. It was judged an excessively complicated solution that didn’t fit the problem. Five other states had some version of nonpartisan primaries and rank choice voting on the ballot and all failed.

Floyd Ciruli presented a post-election analysis to the Metro Denver Executive Club at the Denver Country Club Wednesday morning, November 6.

California Voters Don’t Agree with the Democratic Super Majority

Left: Los Angeles County DA George Gascón (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
Right: Alameda County DA Pamela Price (Facebook/Alameda County DA’s Office)

Although Kamala Harris carried California by 20 points and Democrats maintained their legislative super majority, their position on economics and criminal justice was soundly rejected by voters in ballot issues and District Attorney elections. Voters rejected rent control, a minimum wage increase and opposed tougher charges for drugs and theft.

Ciruli & Associates 2024

Just to hammer home voters' rejection of the state legislature's criminal justice reforms since 2020, they removed two liberal Democrat District Attorneys in overwhelmingly Democratic cities.

Los Angeles County:
Democrat George Gascón loses 68% to 32% to (Republican) Nathan Hockman (Harris carried L.A. by 64%).

Alameda County:
Democrat DA Pamela Price recalled by 68% of voters (Harris carried Alameda by 73%). Fellow liberal DA in San Francisco, Chesa Boudin, was recalled in 2022.

California voters still support same sex marriage right (61%) and approved bonds for school facilities (57%), safe drinking water and wildfire prevention and climate change (57%).

RELATED:
California: Law and Order is Back Oct 9, 2024

Sales Tax Recession

The first nine months of sales tax collections in 2024 continues a second year of weak collections. It reflects a sales tax recession in the seven county Denver metro area as sales tax-dependent cities begin to tighten budgets.

The sales tax lag remains unexplained, but voters were asked to increase sales tax rates by a host of local governments with mixed results. In Denver, voters rejected a half-cent sales tax increase for housing in spite of a major campaign directed by Mayor Mike Johnston and little organized opposition.

RELATED:
Sales Tax Collection Falls Again Aug 16, 2024

Race Tight. Harris Now Behind.

Election workers sort ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center on Nov. 9, 2022, in Phoenix. Photo by John Moore | Getty Images

In a last snapshot before election day, Kamala Harris lost the lead (October 26, 2024) she held since early September in popular vote and is now behind by a fraction in most of the battleground states to Donald Trump. If the RCP aggregate of polls is accurate, she could lose both the popular and electoral vote to Trump. Other aggregators, such as 538 have Harris up one or two points. And most observers point out, she could win, depending on many factors, especially turnout and late deciders.

I will be making several presentations as to what caused the shift, when will the election be decided and what’s next for American politics and policy.

Presidential Polls
Above are polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

Fox News Interview with Harris – KOA Morning Show

Bret Baier and Kamala Harris. Photo: Fox News

My comments with Marty and Jeana after the Fox News interview with Kamala Harris conducted by Bret Baier (October 12, 2024).

I pointed out most post-interview news stories featured the word “contentious” prominently. It was more like a debate, with Baier asking the most aggressive RNC-type questions. For example, a significant amount of time was spent on immigration, with frequent interruptions as Harris spoke. For Baier, the audience of one was Donald Trump, who criticized Fox News for even allowing an interview.

It is unlikely to have much effect on the election outcome but she was praised by Democrats and some media for having gone into a hostile forum and attacked Donald Trump repeatedly.

The audience is largely Republican and some Democrats, especially men, a group she has tried to win over but not shown much quantifiable result. Her message was Trump is unfit to be president and people who worked with him say so.

Is Colorado’s Direct Democracy Working?

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On Friday, October 11, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs hosted a panel of media and political experts to examine Colorado’s Direct Democracy Produce a Torrent of Proposals. Participants (in person and online) joined the panel with extensive questions and discussion.

The panel, moderated by pollster and Senior Fellow Floyd Ciruli, recalled the appeal of direct democracy to voters who have historically believed there are problems legislators don’t address and a ballot initiative can be a solution. But today, polls record many are concerned by the volume and complexity of the proposals, and 2024 is an example of the issue. Fourteen propositions crowd the ballot ranging from animal rights to guns and from abortion to criminal justice and education. Some, in particular the election reform measures, if passed, represent significant changes to public policy which is not necessarily evident in the ballot wording.

The panelists pointed out a number of difficulties with direct democracy. Denver City Councilman Kevin Flynn and State Legislative Economist Greg Sobetski, related their knowledge of how government-elected officials and staff try to improve the initiative process. The media panelists, Denver Post opinion columnist Krista Kafer and reporter Seth Klamann, pointed out the background story of initiatives. Kafer and Flynn, in particular, were critical of the decisions being forced on a public that often hears “just slogans.”

The panelists were: Seth Klamann, reporter Denver Post, covering statehouse, policy and elections
Kevin Flynn, Denver City Councilman, District 2 (southwest), former Rocky Mountain news reporter
Krista Kafer, opinion columnist The Denver Post
Greg Sobetski, chief economist for Legislative Council with Colorado General Assembly
Floyd Ciruli, panel moderator, pollster, Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website
for more information on the November 8 First Friday Breakfast:
What Happened and What Lies Ahead
panel here

READ:
CU Denver Panel Reviews Our Tumultuous Election Year Oct. 3, 2024

First Friday Breakfast

Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On November 8, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a post-election panel to analyze what happened and what’s next. Dean Paul Teske and Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will lead the discussion with a panel of political leaders.

The First Friday Breakfast will review the results of the Presidential election to the extent known, the likelihood and path of a final decision if not known, and what the result will be for American democracy. Also discussed, Colorado’s 8th Congressional District results, which may decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The myriad of state ballot propositions, including criminal justice, animal rights, abortion, education, and a dramatic change of state election rules and what it means for Colorado in 2025 will be examined.

Political leaders joining the discussion are:
State Senator Chris Hansen
State Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

First Friday Breakfast
Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead
Friday, November 8, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Orange County Top Congressional Battleground

U.S. Senate candidates Rep. Adam Schiff, left, and Republican Steve Garvey. Photo by Damian Dovarganes, AP Photo

In the recent IGS Berkeley poll for the U.S. Senate race, the election in Orange County is tied while Democrat Adam Schiff is beating Steve Garvey by 17 points (53% to 36%) statewide. The polling tie reflects the recent competitive political environment in O.C. The county has two of the country’s most competitive House races in Republican Michelle Steel’s coastal district (CD45) and Irvine/UCI-centered former Congressperson Katie Porter’s open seat (CD 47).

Although Joe Biden won the county in 2020 by 7 points (53% to 46%), the 2022 senate race was a near tie between Alex Padilla and Mark Meuser, and Gavin Newsom lost the governor’s race (48% to 52%) to Brian Dahle, who only got 41 percent statewide.

First Friday Breakfast - Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On November 8, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs will host a post-election panel to analyze what happened and what’s next. Dean Paul Teske and Floyd Ciruli, pollster and Senior Fellow, will lead the discussion with a panel of political leaders.

The First Friday Breakfast will review the results to the extent known, if not known the likely path of a final decision and what the result will be for American democracy.

Paul Teske, Dean, CU Denver School of Public Affairs
Floyd Ciruli, Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend the panel here.

First Friday Breakfast
Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead
Friday, November 8, 2024 8:30 a.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Will Voters OK Billion Dollar Bonds for Colorado’s Schools?

Corey Elementary School in Denver - Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Pos

Nearly $7 billion in new bonds are being proposed by school boards around Colorado. DPS, Aurora Public Schools and Cherry Creek have record requests for more money. Voters have been generous with school districts in the past but this year has some special challenges along with a general unhappiness with government

“All government has suffered from a trust crisis,” Ciruli said. “Schools, I think, have the same problem.”

Affordability
In an interview with Denver Post reporter Jessica Seaman, I pointed out this is a difficult year to ask for record funding after raucous legislative sessions on rising property taxes and frequent complaints from voters about the affordability of living in the Denver Metro area.

“Coloradoans increasingly are worried about whether they can afford to live here, which, in turn, could make tax measures on the ballot less appealing to voters this year. This is especially so in Denver, where there are other ballot measures that, if approved, would increase the city’s sales tax,” said pollster Floyd Ciruli.

Douglas County
Douglas County, which is asking for nearly a half a billion dollars, lost a similar bond request last year. Ciruli noted the changes in Douglas County. “While the conservative electorate could make it difficult for a bond measure to pass,” he said, “there is a lot of unity in terms of the board and the superintendent in favor of this, and it certainly helps.”

Denver County
Denver’s school board just went through a difficult election around school safety and board dysfunction. “Although three new members – John Youngquist, Kimberlee Sia and Marlene De La Rosa – were elected to the DPS board last year, critics don’t believe there’s been enough change in district leadership, including in the role of superintendent,” Ciruli said.

High Taxes
“Although potential challenge that DPS will face in getting voters to approve its bond proposal is that there are two other measures on the ballot, one to financially help Denver Health and the other to fund affordable housing, that would increase the city’s sales tax rate if approved,” Ciruli said. “This has created an unusual amount of talk in Denver about how “taxes are getting high,” he said. “It creates an affordability problem.”

“Districts’ argument that their bond proposals won’t increase property taxes works in their favor, but they are still facing voters who are concerned generally about the economy and inflation – and this means the economic environment is not as “generous” as in previous years,” Ciruli said.

READ ARTICLE:
Colorado school districts want voters to OK billions for new buildings and maintenance. It may be a tough sell.

RELATED:
DPS Election Critical for Denver’s Reputation 10/20/23
Denver Post: Voters Send Message to DPS - Change 11/10/23

Harris is Projected to Win Colorado by Ten Points or More

Vice President Kamala Harris shakes Donald Trump's Hand at Presidental Debate
Photo: Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Colorado by 11 points which is unlikely to be altered by Trumps trip to Aurora (53% Harris, 42% Trump) (poll by Keating Research Inc. 9/14/24). In 2020, Joe Biden won Colorado by 13 points. Earlier this year, when Biden was behind by 2 points or more national polls, he would have still won Colorado but by a diminished 7 or 8 points or about half his 2020 win.

Today, Harris is near a very substantial win in spite of only being ahead of the popular vote by 2 points. That should be comforting for Yadira Caraveo, Democratic Congressman, in a very difficult reelection campaign in Colorado 8th District.

RELATED:
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today 02/14/24
Biden’s Colorado Win Cut in Half 02/21/24

California: Law and Order is Back

Nathan Hochman (left) and George Gascón Photos: Nathan Hochman for LA County District Attorney/Campaign ad via YouTube; Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

Two recent polls show Los Angeles’ liberal reform District Attorney, George Gascón, is losing his reelection by more than two to one. He is trailing his opponent, Nathan Hockman, by 24 points (44% to 20%). Gascón, a Democrat in an overwhelmingly Democratic city, has been behind in several polls for months. There is still a third of the electorate undecided. A new LA Times poll by Berkeley IGS shows Gascón behind 51 percent to 21 percent. The USC/CSU Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona poll of September 30 was sponsored by Channel 2, NBC.

The same pollsters show getting tough on crime is the public’s position today, with 60% of LA voters supporting Proposition 36’s goal to increase penalties for retail theft and crimes involving fentanyl (Berkeley IGS) (58% support Prop. 36 on USC et al. poll).

Early Voting Begins – Harris Ahead in Popular Vote

Steve Kornacki explains why Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are focused on Pennsylvania

As early voting begins in Colorado and many states, the race remains too close to call – the same as it was on September 20 when this analysis was last published. The election remains polarized into two nearly equal camps and opinions are being rigidly maintained in spite of hundreds of millions in advertising and dozens of candidate events weekly.

Kamala Harris is winning the popular vote by 2 percent, similar to the Democratic wins in the last two elections. But the latest polls from the seven battleground states are within the margin of error and frequently shift with each new poll. As of today, Harris is ahead in 3 states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, and tied in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Democrats appear to be losing the U.S. Senate due to the expected loss of West Virginia and being behind in Montana. Analysts believe control of the House is a toss-up but that Democrats have slight advantage.

Presidential Polls
Above are polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

WATCH:
Kornacki on Meet the Press Oct 6, 2024

RELATED:
Harris Wins the Debate But the Race is Close Sept 20, 2024

What Voters Need to Know: Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

As voting begins, threats to ballot security loom larger. CU Denver’s School of Public Affairs is hosting a public event October 25th featuring election administration officials and academic experts on the dangers of disinformation, misinformation and ongoing threats to a fair and secure election.

Colorado’s 63 elected Clerks and Recorders are the state’s election officials on the front line. They have been given the important responsibility of administering local, state, and federal elections and ensuring they are safe, fair and accurate. However, since the 2020 election, the job has become the focus of a significant amount of misinformation, disinformation and threats of interference.

Discussing misinformation and election security will be:

Deserai Anderson Crow, professor, School of Public Affairs
Matt Crane, Director of the Colorado County Clerk’s Association, former Arapahoe County Clerk

The early evening event will begin at 5:30 pm at the downtown Denver Campus.

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend the discussion (in person or virtually) here.

Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration
Friday, October 25, 2025 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Caraveo Reelection in Danger

Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Evans

A new poll confirms the observation of most political analysts, Yadira Caraveo’s Democratic House seat is in danger of loss to Republican Gabe Evans. The poll shows a 44% to 44% split, with independent voters preferring Evans by 43% to 35%. She wins Hispanic voters by 9 points, 42% to 33%.

The seat had been shifted to toss-up from “lean” Democrat by the Crystal Ball rating service in early August.

The district was designed in the 2020 redistricting to be competitive and Caraveo barely won her 2022 inaugural election. She failed to establish much of a political presence the last two years and lags in favorability in the poll 49% for Evans, a one term state legislator, to 43% for her.

The poll was published by Fox 31 / Channel 2/ Emerson College (n 525 ± 42 points)

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

RELATED:
Caraveo Moved to Toss-Up Aug 8 2024

CU Denver Panel on Colorado Ballot Proposals

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On Friday, October 11th, 2024, Colorado ballot issues will be examined by a panel of media and political experts hosted by CU Denver School of Public Affairs from 5:30 to 7:00 p.m. Pollster and Senior Fellow, Floyd Ciruli, will moderate this panel.

Direct democracy is appealing to some voters who believe there are problems legislators don’t address and a ballot initiative can be a solution. But many are concerned by the volume and complexity of the proposals, and 2024 is an example of the issue. Fourteen propositions crowd the ballot ranging from animal rights to guns and from abortion to criminal justice and education. Some, if passed, represent significant changes to public policy which is not necessarily evident in the ballot wording.

The Panel
Discussing the proposals will be:
Seth Klamann, reporter Denver Post, covering statehouse, policy and elections
Kevin Flynn, Denver City Councilman, District 2 (southwest), former Rocky Mountain news reporter
Greg Sobetski, chief economist for Legislative Council with Colorado General Assembly
Floyd Ciruli, panel moderator, pollster, Senior Fellow, CU Center School of Public Affairs

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
October 11, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

RELATED:
Colorado’s Direct Democracy Produces Torrent of Proposals 10/02/24
The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions 10/03/24

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On Friday, October 11, 2024, several of Colorado’s ballot issues will be examined by a panel of legislative and media experts hosted by CU Denver’s School of Public Affairs. Seven citizen initiatives and seven referred by legislature are on the 2024 ballot. Pollster and Senior Fellow, Floyd Ciruli, will moderate this panel that takes place from 5:30 to 7:00 pm. Participants can attend in person or online.

A proliferation of issues this year range from having a narrow impact to affecting the entire state’s policy and political process. Panelists will discuss whether this is the best way to legislate tax, election rules, wildlife management and culture policy? What are the downsides?

Some issues to examine include:

• How many of the initiatives are multimillion dollar campaigns that involve signature collection, legal/political consulting and media. The election reform initiative, for example, is part of a well-funded, multistate, multi-year effort to change election rules. Campaigns are frequently one sided in their resources.
• Initiatives can be used for negotiating with the legislature. In 2024, a triumvirate of the governor, legislative leadership and business-related interest groups changed tax policy.
• Which are part of national or regional interests wanting to use Colorado’s ballot access and voters for their agendas including fundraising and turnout. This is especially true of cultural issues, e.g., gun control, animal rights, abortion, crime, etc.
• Why the legislature is getting into the ballot referral process more frequently.
• How the volume and complexity of the issues can overwhelm voters.
• Direct democracy involving 14 issues is a challenge for Blue Books and their legislative council draftsmen.

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend the panel discussion, either in person or remotely, here.

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
October 11, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200
Denver, Colorado

RELATED:
Colorado’s Direct Democracy Produces Torrent of Proposals 10/02/24

CU Denver Panel Reviews Our Tumultuous Election Year

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On September 6th, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs hosted a panel of Colorado political experts to discuss Election 2024: Colorado and the Country at a Crossroads. More than 80 participants (in person and online) joined brief presentations from the panel and an hour of moderator and audience questions.

The panel, moderated by Pollster and Senior Fellow Floyd Ciruli, reflected on the extraordinary political year after President Biden’s weak debate performance on June 27th and his withdrawal from the race on Sunday, July 21st. The panelists, including a political reporter and representatives from both Democratic and Republican political parties, opined that Kamala Harris might not have been the strongest Democratic replacement candidate but she nevertheless had an extraordinary ascension to the nomination. Harris and Donald Trump are now in a toss-up race. 

Only one of Colorado’s three open Republican congressional seats, the 3rd congressional district on the Western Slope, is still considered worth watching. The newest Democratic seat, encompassing Adams and Weld County (8th), is considered a tossup. 

Many of the 14 statewide ballot issues could have considerable political consequences related to criminal justice (sentencing, bail, funding) school choice and wildlife management. Possibly the most significant initiative will introduce an all candidate, open primary and ranked choice voting – its ramifications representing a dramatic election change for Colorado. 

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs website for more information on future panels here. 

Sheila MacDonald, media commentator, Democratic political consultant, manager of candidate and ballot issue campaign manager 

Dick Wadhams, media commentator, Channel 4 analyst, consultant, former Republican chair 

Marianne Goodland, chief legislative reporter, Colorado Politics, president of the Denver Press Club
Floyd Ciruli, panel moderator, Senior Fellow, CU Denver School of Public Affairs

READ:
Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads 09/04/2024

Are Polls Accurate?

A poll worker at Montbello High School in Denver. Photo courtesy the Rocky Mountain News archives via the Denver Public Library

In a long interview with Rocky Mountain PBS’s reporter Andrea Kramar, the mechanics and trustworthiness of polling was discussed. Concerning polling accuracy, I argued that pollsters are strongly incentivized to be accurate. Their reputations depend on their poll results aligning with the election results. Even candidate and party pollsters need to be accurate, as do liberal and conservative media outlets.

Does liberal or conservative media skew polls?
All these polls at some point have to run up against what happens on election day – our version of the Super Bowl. If you want to stay in the polling business, you better be in the ballpark or else have a good explanation as to what happened.

If you perform poorly?
You won’t get hired. Your newspaper will lose credibility. Newspapers frequently change pollsters when things don’t go well.

READ INTERVIEW:
Reality Check: An insider’s guide to how political polls work

Colorado’s Direct Democracy Produces Torrent of Proposals

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

On Friday, October 11, 2024, Colorado ballot issues will be examined by a panel of media and political experts hosted by CU Denver School of Public Affairs from 5:30 to 7:00 p.m. Pollster and Senior Fellow, Floyd Ciruli, will moderate this panel.

Direct democracy is appealing to some voters who believe there are problems legislators don’t address and a ballot initiative can be a solution. But many are concerned by the volume and complexity of the proposals, and 2024 is an example of the issue. Fourteen propositions crowd the ballot ranging from animal rights to guns and from abortion to criminal justice and education. Some, if passed, represent significant changes to public policy which is not necessarily evident in the ballot wording.

Crime & justice
• Change judicial procedures
• Restrict bail for murder
• Narrow parole for violent crime
• Fund law enforcement
• Tax firearms and ammunition

Animals
• Ban mountain lion, bobcat, lynx hunting
• Add veterinary associates

Elections
• Create all candidate open primary - ranked choice voting

School policy
• Add right to school choice

Marriage / abortion
• Repeal marriage definition
• Add right to abortion and funding

Miscellaneous
• Change initiative deadlines
• Change property tax for disabled veterans
• Increase sports betting revenues for water projects

Check out the CU Denver School of Public Affairs’ website for more information and register today to attend panel here.

The Colorado Ballot: Seismic Decisions
October 11, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
1380 Lawrence St., Suite 200, Denver, Colorado

Electoral Vote Is Calcified

Crystal Ball Electoral College rating Updated: Sept. 25, 2024

The electoral vote count of the leading vote forecaster has not changed in the last 30 days. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball published on August 20 showed that the distribution of electoral votes had shifted when Joe Biden was the nominee (Democrats losing 196 to 312) to a slight Kamala Harris advantage (Democrats winning 226 to 219) with 93 toss-up electoral votes in 7 states. Their latest map (see above) published on September 25 has the same electoral count and toss-up states. The Cook Political Report, another forecasting service, agrees.

In the last two presidential elections the Democrats have won the popular vote by substantial margins but with close electoral counts. Results were reversed with Donald Trump winning in 2016 by 77 electors and Biden in 2020 by 74. As of today it appears a close election with very little movement since early September.

RELATED
Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote 08/28/2024