Pandemic and Colorado Politics

The pandemic has altered Colorado and U.S. politics in ways still being played out: the presidential and senate nominations; political campaigns, conventions and mail-back voting; ballot initiatives and petition circulation; delayed legislative session and budget deficits; and most importantly, the impact of fatalities and recession.

The 2020 election will be one of the most important in the post WWII era and its narrative is being framed by the pandemic. The Buzz and Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research are chronicling the changes and challenges.

• Biden moving toward delegate majority. Does Sanders stay in?, 3-19-20
• Democratic primary: Is it over?, 3-26-20
• From brokered to virtual convention, coronavirus changes politics, 4-9-20
• Flood of Colorado ballot initiatives now on hold: Coronavirus changes politics, 4-9-20
• Colorado sports betting starts May 1. Should it?, 4-20-20
• Americans support mail-back voting. Colorado got theirs in 2013, 4-28-20
• Colorado water policy in the pandemic, 5-1-20
• Massive state budget deficits: Colorado and California, 5-11-20
• Pandemic and Colorado Senate race: Gardner starts TV, Democrats “debate,” 5-19-20 
• Pandemic and petitions, 5-20-20
• Pandemic and public opinion: Colorado, 5-21-20
• The twin towers of pain: Part six, 5-27-20

Hong Kong Becomes a Chinese Security Issue

China’s People’s Congress announced a policy position that affirmed what many believed: Hong Kong’s democratic features inherited from the British handover in 1997 are tenuous and potentially short-lived. The one country, two systems, was to last until 2047. But, a very viable sign of China’s limited tolerance of Hong Kong’s special status was President Xi Jinping’s 2017 visit for the swearing-in of Beijing-favored Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam. He made clear that Hong Kong’s activism on voting issues and democratic governance was considered a threat to the central government’s control, to the party’s legitimacy and to national sovereignty. His most high-profile activity during the visit was to assemble and review the garrison, making unsubtle statements that China’s military is available for deployment.

Although the new laws are still in drafting, “State security agencies” will now be used in Hong Kong as needed to fight separatism, subversion, terrorism and foreign interference (i.e., U.S.). The Chinese legislature will be able to draft laws related to so-called national security, which state security could enforce without Hong Kong’s approval. Chief Executive Carrie Lam said she will cooperate with the effort.

Although the ultimate legislation may still leave considerable authority in the Basic Laws of Hong Kong with its independent legal system and democratic features, its promulgation will likely produce more reaction from local activists and more opposition from the U.S. and many western countries.

Most importantly, the shift in China’s approach to Hong Kong ends the long abandoned view in the West that China was evolving to tolerate some level of democracy with its dissent and independent legal system as reflected in its claimed territories, such as Hong Kong and Taiwan. It also reinforces that President Xi is the major driver of the shift to intolerance of autonomy.

Summer Campaign Season: Trump Still Behind in Battleground States

As the post Memorial Day campaign season begins, presidential campaign metrics haven’t moved much the last 30 days and President Donald Trump remains in trouble. The most recent national polls as aggregated by RealClearPolitics has Joe Biden ahead of Trump by 5 points, one point below the spread on April 28, the last time I reported the data.

Former VP Joe Biden and President Donald Trump

During the 30 days, Trump ended his participation and the media coverage of the widely panned Coronavirus Task Force press conferences and began road trips to battleground states – Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan. His nonstop emphasis is on starting the economy, which has indeed begun opening, if at different rates and still with considerable public caution.

Other key metrics framing the race – deaths from COVID-19 and unemployment – continue to go up. Deaths are now over 100,000 and unemployment claims hit 38 million, a post WWII record.

Battlegrounds
The President, his campaign and his political allies, especially in the Senate, are also facing difficult numbers in battleground states. Trump is currently behind in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. He’s ahead in North Carolina by only one point. He has lost ground during the last month in both Michigan (was down 4, now down 5) and Pennsylvania (was down 3, now down 6).

Senate
Mitch McConnell and his leadership team are increasingly concerned about their senate majority. Colorado incumbent Cory Gardner is down more than 10 points in repeated polls, including a recent online survey where he was down 18 points. Arizona incumbent Martha McSally is behind 9 points to challenger Mark Kelly. Susan Collins is behind in Maine by 3 points and Thom Tillis in North Carolina by one.

Generic Vote
The final metric that causes concern to the Majority Leader and his colleague in the House, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, is the generic ballot tests that continue to show the Republicans 8 points behind in both RealClearPolitics and 538 (48% to 40%). Republicans were behind by 7 points in late October 2018 just before they lost 41 seats and control of the House.

Of course, it’s early. Conventions need to be held. Colorado still has a primary, but when so little has moved the last month, the numbers appear to show strong tendencies and the Republican Party is beginning to worry.

Blame Game: China and U.S.

The intense media attack on China for its early behavior related to COVID-19 by the Trump administration and the equally fierce counterattack from China was a major topic at the May 14 Zoom conversation, “China, the U.S. and Global Leadership in the Pandemic,” with professors Suisheng Zhao and Floyd Ciruli of the Korbel School, which attracted more than 100 participants.

Since the session, the blame game has become even more heated between the major powers and has received considerable coverage in the media. WHO was the latest forum for the fight during the last two weeks. President Trump delivered a four-page ultimatum to cut off funding due to the organization’s lack of “independence” from Beijing. China, for its part, has been aggressively counterattacking through its diplomatic corps and in social media claiming the U.S.’s incompetent handling of the virus is an indictment of both Trump and the failed U.S. system.

It is an important issue domestically in both countries. China, as it convened a delayed annual meeting of its National Congress, is highlighting the narrative that the party and leadership managed the virus effectively and it’s under control. In the U.S., China bashing has become part of the presidential campaigns, with Republicans spending millions on advertising the message that China was responsible for the virus, covered it up and that Joe Biden is weak on China. People who oppose Trump, such as the Lincoln Project, have a devastating ad titled “Mourning in America” that ties Trump to the virus mismanagement and the tragic result. Biden and the Democrats argue, of course, Trump is the problem and that he has been President Xi Jinping’s biggest booster.

To view the May 14 session, click here. 

Sam just published an article on the topic: “China–US blame game hampers COVID-19 response.” And I’ve posted: “China’s delayed Congress meets May 22 – Sign all is well?”

The Twin Towers of Pain: Part Six

Out of a total of 850,000 worldwide COVID-19 deaths, the U.S. just crossed the 100,000 mark, or 29 percent. Although the rate of deaths is slowing (down from 2,000 a day in April to about 1,200 today), there are sufficient infections, some in areas with weaker health care networks, that the number of deaths will continue to grow. Also, as the country opens up, spikes are a concern. May through Memorial Day produced 40,000 deaths. June is likely to have a significant increase, even as the curve in the U.S. levels off.

Economy
The last week produced 2.4 million new unemployment claims, increasing the total since the beginning of March to 38.6 million. With the country opening back up, increases in claims should decline as people drop off the roles and return to work. But as the worldwide recession takes hold, even with the end of the lockdown, a slow recovery is now anticipated nearly universally among economists, financial officials and business and another wave of unemployment is likely as businesses adjust to the diminished demand.

The unemployment rate and economic data for May published in June will be record-breaking bad, with a likely unemployment rate near the Depression level of 25 percent – one out of four Americans.

See The Buzz:
The Twin Towers of Pain: Part One
The Twin Towers of Pain: Part Two
The Twin Towers of Pain: Part Three
The Twin Towers of Pain: Part Four
The Twin Towers of Pain: Part Five

China’s Delayed Congress Meets May 22 – Sign All is Well?

After a two-month delay, the National People’s Congress’s annual meeting of political and business elites will start on Friday, May 22. It represents a risk to assemble several thousand of the country’s top leaders in Beijing, but it signals China wants the narrative to be that it managed the virus and is back to normal.

President Xi’s and the leadership’s handling of the coronavirus will be the lead topic as it is a part of the global public relations effort to counter criticism and assert China’s growing global strategy.

But, the economic rhetoric and plans will be critical. President Xi Jinping has recently placed more emphasis on restoring jobs and less on growth projections. That’s partially a reflection that the economy has contracted more in the first quarter than since Mao died in the mid-1970s. The credibility of his leadership and the legitimacy of the party are at some risk.

Also, the reports and conversations on Hong Kong will be watched closely. Hong Kong has mostly exhausted the central government’s patience due to riots, parliamentary disruption and the damaged economy. China argues sovereignty is threatened and national security. It alleges interference from the U.S. Also, a surge of nationalist fervor is affecting China’s rhetoric and possibly the substance of the relationship. Expect tighter control.

Chinese leaders have been wearing masks. How many actually show up versus teleconference will be a sign of the risk assessment. Upwards of 5,000 participants and associated interests could show up for the Congress and the parallel meeting of the party’s political advisors at the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.

Cory Gardner Runs on “Bringing Home the Bacon”

Although President Trump is one of Senator Cory Gardner’s major burdens in his re-election, he is also helping Gardner make his case that he is the best person to serve Colorado and should be re-elected. Gardner has scored a host of impressive wins for Colorado in his first term, mostly with the help of Trump and backed by his Republican Senate colleagues.

• Move Bureau of Land Management headquarters to Grand Junction
• Place start-up of new Space Force in Colorado Springs
• Fund Arkansas Valley Conduit ($28 million)
• Fully fund Land and Water Conservation Fund 
• Acquire masks from Asian contacts due to Senate Committee work

President Trump brings Sen. Cory Gardner to the stage as
he speaks to supporters at the Broadmoor World Arena,
February 20, 2020 | AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post

Senators who focus on bringing in projects and funding to their states as a primary congressional activity and campaign message has falling out of favor, especially during tough re-elections, with the rise of nationalized campaigns, polarization and intense partisanship. But historically, it has been a frequent approach by Colorado senators, with Republicans Ben Campbell and Wayne Allard, both re-elected, adept at it in recent years. It fits with Gardner’s primary advantage of being in the majority senate party and having a friend in the White House. The election in 2018 made clear it’s impossible for Republican candidates to avoid Trump. They may as well use him as best as possible.

Gardner also emphasizes that the projects often had bipartisan support. Bipartisanship always tests well in Colorado polls and is a characteristic voters say they like.