The Asian Vote and the California Recall

More than ten percent of the 22.2 million ballots mailed in the California recall went to Asian voters. As of August 31, or two weeks out from the September 14 election, nearly 500,000 have been returned, or 12 percent of the 4 million total that have been cast (see table below).

In the last presidential vote, the Asian vote was just over 4 percent of the total, up from 2016, but still modest. The Asian vote in California is three times as large and could equal about a million votes if more than 35 percent of voters turn out. Currently, 3.5 million Californians have voted, or 16 percent.

Except for Asian votes, other minorities are well behind in ballot returns. Anglos dominate with 70 percent of the returns received.

Read: Majority of Asian Americans Voting for Biden

Colorado Voters Support Mail-in Balloting, But Prefer Dropping It Off

The Colorado mail-back ballot system is considered one of the models in the country. More than 3.2 million used it in the 2020 election – a record voter turnout in the highly contested election with the difficulties of the pandemic year, and Colorado voters support mail-back ballots, but like a drop off return.

Most Colorado voters strongly approve a mail-back voting system. In an online poll conducted during the election by the University of Denver’s Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research and fielded by YouGov, 82 percent of Colorado voters said they “strongly” or “somewhat” approve the mail-back voting system (57% said “strongly approve”) and only 18 percent “strongly” or “somewhat” disapproved.

Coloradans like their mail-back system, but prefer a hands-on return. Most voters dropped off their ballots (69%) and few use the mail (16%) or voted in-person (15%).

Colorado Voter Survey

The methodology and questions in the Colorado voter survey:

An online survey was conducted by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research from mid-October to mid-November 2020 during the presidential campaign. The survey was fielded by YouGov with 960 online participants. The margin of error is ±3 percentage points. The following are the questions included about mail-in voting in the general election.

Colorado Voter Survey Questions

Question: Colorado approved mail-back voting in 2013, and the first statewide election using it for federal, state and local elections was in 2014. Would you say you strongly approve of mail-back voting in Colorado, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of mail-back voting?

Question: Will you mail in your ballot, drop off in a ballot box or Court House, or vote in person?

California Gains a Few People, But Loses Power

Headlines when the 2020 census data was released in California featured the state continued to grow. Yes, but less than the country (7.4%). The population grew only 6.1 percent over the last ten years while, for example, Colorado grew 14.8 percent. California will lose a congressional seat and Colorado will gain one.

Southern California – historically one of California’s growth engines – languished those ten years. With the exception of Riverside and San Diego counties, the rest, especially giant Los Angeles, grew less than the state and will suffer loses of legislative and congressional clout.

Read: Southern California counties grow while much of the nation shrinks

Biden Collapses with Kabul. Can He Recover?

President Biden’s approval rating was stable over his first six months in office at about 53 percent. Not great, but given today’s polarization and the challenges of governing in the pandemic, not bad. It began to decline with the July resurge of COVID (approval of managing COVID down 12 points) and has now fallen in tandem with the fall of Kabul. Today at 47 percent, Biden’s approval is at its lowest point in his presidency according to the RealClearPolitics average. Most observers expect him to lose another point or two in the next round of national polls.

The speed of the descent is as fast as the Taliban’s advance. Nine days (Aug. 6) after the Taliban captured their first capital in the far southwest of the country, to when they marched unopposed into the presidential palace on August 15, to today as the chaotic evacuations dominate news, Biden has been losing support.

Can he recover? Possibly.

1. In today’s polarized political environment, the Democratic base is unlikely to abandon him, so like former President Trump, he has a floor of support, probably in the mid- to low forty percent level.
2. Foreign policy problems or victories are seldom as salient or long lasting as domestic. Kabul will pass and the economy, COVID and the culture wars will continue to dominate the news and political agendas.
3. Afghanistan, after the early removal of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in 2002 and 2003, was never very popular. It was quickly replaced by the war in Iraq. Most recent polls show the large military commitment was not judged worth it and the withdrawal was supported by a majority of Americans.
4. The military’s frequent recommendations for more troops and equipment dogged Presidents Obama and Trump, but never caused much political reaction. Of course, this retreat is “above the fold,” but historically, Afghanistan hasn’t been on election issue.
5. It is largely unknown if Afghanistan produces more bad press for the administration, or just relief it’s over. There will be many news cycles before November 2022.

Biden in Deep Trouble. Is 2022 Lost?

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has sunk to a 48 percent average on Monday, August 23, eight days after Taliban fighters strolled into the presidential palace.

The startling and unpredicted speed of collapse of the Afghan army and government has taken Biden’s political support down to its core and possibly doomed the 2022 election for House and Senate. And, the damage may not be over as both the chaotic withdrawal and the Taliban consolidation of power are likely to produce more bad news.

A positive presidential approval, managing COVID and some congressional accomplishments were considered the assets Democrats had to go into the midterm elections. At the moment, all three are in danger. The Delta variant surge was already damaging Biden’s support levels as people lost their optimism that the pandemic was mostly over and mask and vaccine wars were behind use. And, the Afghanistan debacle took place as just the moment Democrats were gaining momentum to pass infrastructure after their Senate victories.

Predictions for Democrats holding their slim (4 votes) House majority were already weak. It now depends on the recovery from COVID getting on track and Democrats realizing now more than ever that they need to compromise and pass infrastructure – possible, but as of today, not a betting proposition.

Taliban fighters take control of the Afghan presidential palace after
President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, Kabul, Afghanistan,
Aug. 15, 2021 | Zabi Karimi/AP

Adams and Arapahoe Set to Dominate Metro Area

Colorado’s population increased its urbanization in the last decade with five of the ten fastest growing counties in the seven-county Denver metro area and eight on the Front Range (El Paso, Larimer and Weld). But not all growth was equal in the metro area. Boulder (331,000, 12.3%), due to high costs and anti-growth policies, continues to lag behind the state’s average, with Weld County about to pass it in population (Weld 329,000, 30.1%).

Adams and Arapahoe now appear as two of the most likely metro counties for additional population growth. They have considerable areas that can be developed or made more dense. Arapahoe is now the second largest, just behind Denver. If Adams growth pace continues, it will surpass Jefferson County to become the third largest in the metro area. Both counties have significant Hispanic populations. But Arapahoe is more diverse in that along with the Hispanic population (20.7%), there is a substantial black community (10.4%) and Asian (6.4%).

Denver continues to maintain its dominant position, with a massive 19.2 percent increase during the decade, or 115,000 new residents. Interesting, the Hispanic population percentage did not increase over the decade as much as expected because a considerable portion of Denver’s influx was White (up 2%) and many Latinos moved elsewhere (down 4%). But, will the growth continue? Pushback on infill, increases in crime, homelessness and taxes give it major challenges in the next decade.

August: A Tough Month for Obama and Biden

In August 2014, while trying to finish his summer vacation in the Vineyard, President Barack Obama was criticized for golfing while ISIS was executing people, including American journalists in Iraq and Syria. By then, Obama and the U.S. were leading a coalition back into the area to try to contain the sudden rise of ISIS, but the visual hurt.

Former President Barack Obama sits in golf cart on the island
of Martha’s Vineyard, Mass., Aug. 20, 2014 | Steven Senne/AP

This week, President Joe Biden was attempting to manage a hasty retreat from Kabul as the Taliban surged into control of the country. His lonely looking style at Camp David did not inspire confidence.

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris
(on screen) hold a video conference with the national security
team to discuss ongoing efforts to draw down our civilian
footprint in Afghanistan, Camp David, Maryland, Aug. 16, 2021
| The White House via Getty Images