Colorado’s Presidential Primary Heading to One Million Plus

More than 850,000 Colorado voters have already returned ballots five days before the March 3 primary. More than 250,000 unaffiliated have voted, casting their ballots nearly two-to-one in the Democratic primary. More than 1.3 million voters are possible. In the 2018 gubernatorial primary, 1.1 million turned out. Democrats, who often vote late, have low turnout as of Thursday, February 27.

The 852,428 total, as of Thursday, is twice the previous number of voters in Colorado’s eight-year experience with presidential primaries from 1992 to 2000.

History

The highest Republican presidential primary turnout high was in the 1996 contest among five candidates, including Bob Dole, Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes, when 246,339 voted. The Democratic high turnout was in the first event in 1992 when 234,287 voters made Jerry Brown the top candidate with 29 percent against Bill Clinton (27%) and Paul Tsongas (26%).

Significance of the 2020 Vote

• First presidential primary in 20 years
• Early date in competitive year for Democrats
• All mail-back ballots
• More than 1 million unaffiliated voters sent ballots and encouraged to vote by campaigns
• 17-year-olds allowed to vote (if reach 18 years old by Nov. 3, 2020)

Sanders in the Lead

Bernie Sanders is in a strong position for Super Tuesday – the 14-state March 3 event – with 34 percent of the pledged delegates at stake (1,357). Historically, the winners of 17 out of the last 18 Super Tuesdays from 1984 to 2016 won the nomination.

After the Nevada caucus (47%), he is the delegate frontrunner with 45. Polls show him ahead in the two most delegate-rich Super Tuesday states – California and Texas. He is up 13 points in California (415 delegates) and 1 point in Texas (228), which represent nearly half the delegates (47%). Sanders is also ahead in North Carolina (110) by one point and 6 points in Virginia (99), the next two largest states.

A new poll in Colorado shows what most people have long assumed – Sanders is the frontrunner for delegates with 27 percent of the vote, 12 points ahead of Elizabeth Warren in second.

At the conclusion of Super Tuesday, he may still only be the plurality leader in delegates, but it is likely to be at least a third of the total delegates, or more than 500 of the 1,991 needed for nomination.

Many of the state polls have been volatile in the last few days and the spreads are narrow. Sanders’s potential wins will depend on his base turning out, the effectiveness of the efforts of other candidates, and the nascent “stop Bernie” movement gaining traction.

DU Panel on “The Future of Democracy, Free Trade and Alliances in the Trump Era.”

On March 3, as the returns are coming in the Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday, a panel of experts at DU’s Korbel School will discuss “The Future of Democracy, Free Trade and Alliances in the Trump Era.”

Most observers believe it is a critical moment for American foreign policy. Powerful trends are afoot in the world.

• Democracy is in retreat worldwide and the U.S. What should or could be done about it?
• Tariffs are now common and foreign trade in decline. What’s gained, what’s lost in the new environment?
• Alliances and treaties are disdained (NATO), breaking up (EU) or abandoned (TPP). Are we weaker or stronger without them? Is the rule of law, peace and prosperity more or less secure? 
• Many foreign observers believe President Trump is likely to be re-elected. They are prepared for four more years similar to the last. What does that mean for democracy, free trade and alliances?

Join the discussion with Ambassador Christopher Hill, Senior Researcher Dina Smeltz of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and Professor and Director of the China Center, Sam Zhao. I will present and update the election as the Super Tuesday results roll in.

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Doors Open/Reception: 4:45 pm

Program: 5:00 pm to 6:30 pm

Maglione Hall

Josef Korbel School of International Studies

Anna and John J. Sie International Relations Complex

University of Denver

2201 S. Gaylord St., 5th Floor Denver, CO

SPACE IS LIMITED
Please register early
Free and open to public
Food provided

RSVP HERE 

Presented by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Office of Global Engagement and the Center for China-US Cooperation.

Mitt Romney Won Debate With Barack Obama in 2012. Now, he’s Back to Talk About the Crisis of Democracy.

Most observers and the snap polls gave the first presidential debate in the 2012 election to Mitt Romney. It was held at the University of Denver on October 3 and was a high point for the Romney campaign, which ultimately lost the race and Colorado by 5 points.

He’s back this week to talk about the state of democracy with Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former Prime Minister of Denmark and NATO General Security. Senator Romney has spoken often about the importance of the rule of law and public character, but never more as than during his impeachment vote.

“Like each member of this deliberative body, I love our country. I believe that our Constitution was inspired by Providence. I am convinced that freedom itself is dependent on the strength and vitality of our national character. As it is with each senator, my vote is an act of conviction. We have come to difference conclusions, fellow senators, but I trust we have all followed the dictates of our conscience.”

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research is honored to be a cosponsor of the democracy program with the Korbel School of International Studies and other DU organizations.

Democracy has been an important issue for the Crossley Center for many years. In 2018, DU launched a podcast program called Engaging Issues directed by former business school dean, Jim Griesemer. One of the first programs done in two parts due to the level of interest was “Democracy on the Defensive.” To access the interviews directly, click here.

The overall site with a host of interviews with DU’s most interesting professors on valuable topics is here.

Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, speaks on Senate floor about the impeachment
trial against President Donald Trump at the U.S. Capitol in Washington,
Feb. 5, 2020 | Senate TV via AP.

Republican Voters Flood Colorado’s Presidential Primary. Early Returns Hit Turnout Record.

More than 500,000 Colorado voters have already returned ballots nine days before the March 3 primary and nearly half are Republican. Republicans have flooded early voting with 257,539 returns compared to 202,079 Democrats. Republicans tend to vote earlier in mail-back ballots and Democrats and unaffiliated (for the first time) later. Unaffiliated voters are being counted in with their preferred party.

The 523,938 total as of Sunday is already a record for Colorado’s short eight-year experience with presidential primaries from 1992 to 2000.

The Republican primary turnout high was in the 1996 contest among five candidates, including Bob Dole, Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes, when 246,339 voted. The Democratic high turnout was in the first event in 1992 when 234,287 voters made Jerry Brown the top candidate with 29 percent against Bill Clinton (27%) and Paul Tsongas (26%).

History is being made in this vote.

• First presidential primary in 20 years
• Early date in comparative year for Democrats
• All mail-back ballots
• More than 1 million unaffiliated voters sent ballots and encouraged to vote by campaigns
• 17-year olds allowed to vote (if reach 18 years old by November 3, 2020)

“Thousands of Colorado 17-year-olds can vote on Super Tuesday” – Will Likely Help Bernie Sanders

Generation Z, aged 7 to 22, the cohort just behind Millennials (aged 23-36) is about to start voting in substantial numbers. A new Colorado law allows 17-year-olds, estimated at about 25,000 registered voters, to participate in the March 3 presidential primary if they turn 18 by November 3, 2020. The conventional wisdom has been that younger voters don’t participate – that has been changing. In the Colorado 2018 election, they came out in substantial numbers. I argued in an Aurora Sentinel article that they could make a difference for Bernie Sanders. My quote:

“However, the new voters could help Bernie Sanders’ candidacy and that could make a difference in a tight race. Denver pollster and commentator Floyd Ciruli said. The Vermont senator has benefited from support among Generation Z and Millennial voters.”

The division of the generations by their date of birth and current age.

Japan-U.S. Alliance and the 2020 Election

On March 2, the Korbel School will host a dialogue with experts on the vital U.S. and Japan strategic alliance. Professor Koji Murata from Doshisha University of Kyoto and Dina Smeltz, senior fellow on public opinion and foreign policy from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs will describe the current political environment in the Asian Pacific.

They will be joined by DU professors Ambassador Christopher Hill, Suisheng (Sam) Zhao and Floyd Ciruli for a panel discussion on the impact of the 2020 election on the alliance and politics in the Asia Pacific in general.

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, the Office of Global Engagement and the Center for China-US Cooperation Present: Japan-U.S. Alliance and the 2020 Election.

Monday, March 2, 2020

Doors Open/Reception: 11:45 am

Program: 12:00 pm to 1:30 pm

Josef Korbel School of International Studies

University of Denver

Sie Complex, 2201 S. Gaylord St., Denver, CO

The Forum, 1st Floor, Room 1020

SPACE IS LIMITED
Please register early
Free and open to public
Lunch provided

RSVP HERE