The Shutdown. A Debacle for Trump Based on Wrong Assumptions.

As we point out in The Buzz on January 17, “Is the Wall and Shutdown a Winner for Trump and Republicans?”:

And indeed, missed paychecks among military, such as the Coast Guard; law enforcement, such as TSA, FBI and others; and finally the looming shutdown of the air traffic control system, convinced a very stubborn president that he had a losing strategy.

Misjudging the ease by which he could sustain a shutdown in terms of lost popularity and allies, Trump also misjudged the impact of the midterm elections and the determination of the new Democratic House of Representatives to stop him. He was convinced (and still apparently is) that Democratic House members were going to break from their leaders in the face of constituent hardship and demand a counteroffer with wall funding. In fact, during the last days, it was vulnerable or independent Republicans who broke for opening the government.

While Trump may denigrate polls (and yet still tout those that make him look good – far and few between), it was a wave of polls after mid-January that convinced all of rational, or at least calculating D.C. denizen, that Trump’s third assumption was also wrong. His Oval Office address, visits to Texas borders and endless statements of the threat to national security failed to move public opinion. The wall was still unpopular with the majority of the public. He was being blamed for the shutdown, which was far more unpopular than any crisis on the border, and getting worse every day.

Ernie Bjorkman, A Great Newsman and Community Friend

Along with a distinguished career as a reporter and anchor, Ernie Bjorkman is always available to MC a charity or community event. I most recently presented a post-election political analysis to a group of Arapahoe County citizens. Ernie was the MC, who kept it feeling friendly and professional. 

Good luck Ernie on your next adventure.

Ernie Bjorkman | Photo: The Villager

Nick Gradisar Wins Pueblo Mayor

Congratulations to Nick Gradisar, long-serving Pueblo civic activist, on his election as mayor of Pueblo, Colorado. Gradisar led the campaign to create a strong mayor form of government for Pueblo, which had been led by a city council-manager form of government, with a council-elected, mostly ceremonial president.

Promising change and not the status quo from insiders, Gradisar won with 58 percent over a former council president, Steve Nawrocki.

Pueblo business and other civic leaders have been concerned with the city’s slow job and population growth while the rest of the state has been booming.

Gradisar’s base of experience is serving on the Pueblo Board of Water Works for more than a decade, including two terms as board president. Pueblo Water has been the city’s most respected organization for decades. Alan Hamel, the water department’s long-time, now retired, executive director, chaired Gradisar’s campaign.

Pueblo’s mayor-elect Nick Gradisar celebrates his victory
 Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019 | Dan Boyce/CPR News

Read Pueblo Chieftain: Gradisar wins Pueblo mayoral race

Denver Metro Counties’ Contribution to Colorado’s Economic Activity. Time for Regional Solutions?

A comparison of the seven-county Denver metro area’s economic contribution with their population shows the outsized economic dominance of the seven-county Denver metro region. A 2015 report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analyses shows the metro area has 68 percent of the state’s GDP with 55 percent of the population. Denver and Arapahoe counties have more than half the regional total (57%) and a 39 percent share of the state total. The economic activity of both counties exceeds their share of the population. Jefferson, Boulder and Adams counties each are producing from $20 to $24 billion in economic activity. Total Colorado GDP was $308 billion with a population of 5.5 million.

County and Municipal Regional Transportation Cooperation

The recent population and economic growth of the Denver metro area is beginning to focus the attention of county commissioners and mayors on joining together for regional solutions to congestion problems that anger voters and hurt businesses and jobs. Although state ballot initiatives to fund transportation failed, many metro counties win voter approval to invest some of their sales tax to add and improve roads and bridges. They frequently cooperate with their cities, the state transportation department and each other on larger projects.

Question: Should they end waiting for a state solution and initiate a regional sales tax for local and region transportation projects?

See Denver Post: Front Range towers over Colorado economy, new county GDP numbers show

Denver Metro Area Becoming Democratic Stronghold

With the collapse of Jefferson and Arapahoe counties as Republican strongholds, Democrats now dominate the Denver metro region with such majorities as to overwhelm Republicans’ historic strengths in El Paso, Douglas, Weld and Mesa and many smaller metro counties.

For several decades, the metro area provided about 55 percent of its vote to Democrats running statewide if they were a competitive candidate (Hickenlooper won 56% and Udall 53% in 2014). Jared Polis won the metro area by 60 percent. The seven counties gave Polis 65 percent of his vote, while providing 57 percent of the state total vote.

Denver, in particular, with its recent surge in population and density, turned out 239,000 votes for Polis in the 2018 midterm election and gave him 77 percent of its vote, or 18 percent of his statewide total. Denver, with its large population and overwhelming Democratic vote, is the biggest driver to Democrats gaining control of the state.

Polis, who won statewide with 53 percent, received 54 percent in Jefferson and 59 percent in Arapahoe, together providing nearly a quarter of his statewide vote (24%). In the midterm, Arapahoe went more Democratic than Adams and Jefferson, an amazing result.

Growth and No Growth – Top Issues in Colorado

Utah will get the Olympics, not Colorado. Who cares? The state wasn’t all that enthusiastic about getting Amazon’s second headquarters. Citizens are more concerned about traffic, housing prices and gentrification. But in spite of the lack of local enthusiasm, and some firm resistance, Colorado continues to grow. If not quite as rapidly as half a decade ago, it still was in the top seven states in growth from July 2017 to July 2018, with 79,000 new residents. The state was ranked with Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Florida and Washington. After Colorado, rounding out the top ten were Texas and North and South Carolinas.

Historically, just about the time anti-growth forces get motivated and organized for serious limitations, a recessions starts. Many economists now predict a recession during 2020. The last peak of anti-growth energy in Colorado was in 2000 with a statewide growth limiting ballot initiative. The dot.com bust began an economic slowdown the next year, which translated to a lower growth rate during the decade.

New Congressional District
The nearly 80,000 new residents is down slightly from the 101,000 mid-decade influx from July 2014 to July 2015. But this year’s increase contributes to the 666,000 additional residents since the last census in 2010, ranking Colorado one of the fastest growing states for the decade and likely to be the recipient of a new congressional district.

The state joins Arizona, Florida (2), North Carolina, Oregon and Texas (3) projected to pick up new districts. It’s not clear where the district will be located, but all the current districts will lose some population to create the new one. Also adding to uncertainty of location, a new commission will guide the process. With about 5.7 million residents, Colorado’s current seven districts have about 800,000 residents, with considerable variation among them. The new eight districts will have 712,000 each. All seven current House districts will see some geographic, demographic and political change. Like musical chairs when the music stops, the year 2022 will have new candidates searching and old incumbents scrambling for seats.

Is the Wall and Shutdown a Winner for Trump and Republicans?

A portion of the fence along the U.S. border with Mexico
 in Southern California | BBC World Service

President Trump is convinced his demand for wall funding and willingness to accept an extended government shutdown is a winner. In fact, the wall has never had much support beyond Trump’s core support and shutdowns are always losers due to the image of political incompetence and stories of hardship that are featured in the media.

When Trump said he welcomed blame for the shutdown, he was declaring he accepts no responsibility for the government operating and that his interest in the “wall,” which is largely political, was superior to any difficulties faced by federal workers, contractors and citizens missing services. That is a shift from the usual position of presidents and makes negotiating especially difficult. He has little urgency or willingness to compromise. Neither do the Democrats. They are convinced voters don’t want the wall and that the party in control of the government ultimately is blamed for shutdowns.

Confirming the problem for Trump and Republicans have been a host of new polls from NBC News/Wall Street Journal, CNN and Washington Post/ABC News showing the Republicans and Trump getting the blame and the wall still not popular. A PPP poll (Public Policy Polling) commissioned by a liberal interest group in states with Republican senators up for re-election, like Colorado, tracks the national polls. PPP, although a Democratic firm, has a good track record on election polling, including in Colorado. Question wording is the place to especially review for bias. Three questions reprinted at the end of the blog appear the most straightforward.

• Trump had 40% approval (nationally he’s at 41% in RealClearPolitics.com)
• Who do you blame the most for the shutdown – Trump 54%, Democrats 43%
• Support for Congress voting to re-open government without wall funding – 58%, oppose 37%
• Keep government closed until the President gets funding for the wall – 38% agree, 58% disagree

At best, Trump’s wall has support in the low 40 percent in Colorado. When the wall is combined with the shutdown, support drops to 37 percent to 38 percent.

This political fight reinforces that Trump is mainly concerned with his base. It plays in some states, but not Colorado.

PPP Questions

Q1.: Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?
Q3.: As you may know, the federal government is currently in a shutdown. Who do you blame the most for the government shutdown: Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress?
Q5.: Would you support or oppose congress voting today to re-open the government without funding the border wall?