‘He’s going to do It…He’s got a theory’ – Politico

Gov. John Hickenlooper | Alex Wong/Getty Images

John Hickenlooper believes the first Democratic debate in 2019 will look like the Republicans in August and September 2015 – two tiers, 17 contestants. Hickenlooper’s goal is to be on the first tier, a leader of the outside D.C. contingent.

Hickenlooper’s announcement continues to gather national attention. As I described to Politico’s David Siders:

“I think he understands that he’s a long shot,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based pollster. Ciruli said Hickenlooper’s candidacy will likely depend on a large field of more progressive candidates gridlocking.

“His goal is to start early and see if he can become the leader of the outside governors, moderates,” Ciruli said. “He’s going to do it … He’s got a theory.”

Read David Siders' article here

National Polls Switch to Likely Voters; Republicans Still Behind

Typically, reputable national polls switch from registered voters to a likely voter screen. The effect usually aids Republicans because their voters have been more likely to say they will vote. For example, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows a 12-point advantage for Democrats among 900 registered voters (52% to 40%), but a smaller 8-point advantage among likely voters (594) in the generic ballot test (51% to 43%).

Unfortunately for Republicans, they are still behind. As Republican pollster Bill McInturff said: “This [poll] is beyond weak” for Republicans. “Americans are hitting the brakes in a midterm and trying to send a signal they are not satisfied.”

Republican support from women is a disaster. Men prefer Republicans for Congress over Democrats by 3 percentage points (44% to 47%), but women prefer Democrats by 25 percentage points (58% to 33%).

• September – 12 points, up from 8 points in August with registered voters
• 59% want a change from Mr. Trump’s direction, including nearly a third of Republicans (In 1994, 62% wanted change from Clinton’s direction; Democrats lost 54 seats)
• Top issues: economy, health care, corruption and special interests’ control of D.C. Economy: Prefer Republican – 47%, Democrat – 45%. Health care: Prefer Republican – 34%, Democrat – 58%
• 58% prefer candidates who help Dreamers

Will Democrats Take the House? Is the Blue Wave a Ripple or a Tsunami? A Panel of Political Experts Describe the Race.

The political environment is roiling. A flood of news appears to move the polls weekly. What will Washington’s impact be on the Colorado election?

Voting in Colorado starts in mid-October. Join a panel of the state’s political experts who will discuss the Colorado and national political environment just before voting starts.

Along with the national election, they will discuss the Colorado governor’s election and partisan change in the balance in the state legislature, as well as significant ballot issues on fracking, school and transportation funding.

Ask the experts.

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research is hosting a panel of top Colorado political experts on the election. The panel, called “Colorado Politics in 2018: A Transformative Election,” includes:

Panel Discussion: Colorado Politics in 2018: A Transformative Election 

Floyd Ciruli

Moderator: Floyd Ciruli, Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, Josef Korbel School of International Studies

Panelists:
Dick Wadhams – Republican campaign manager and former State Chair
Steve Welchert – Democratic campaign manager
Fofi Mendez –Colorado lobbyist and ballot initiative manager
Jerry Bell – Managing Editor of KOA Radio
Sam Mamet – Executive Director of the Colorado Municipal League

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Program: 4-6 pm

Reception: 6-7 pm

University of Denver Campus

Anna and John J. Sie International Relations Complex

Room 1020

2201 S. Gaylord St., Denver, CO

Event FREE, but space limited

RSVP to: Karen Hayden at 303.871.4374 or email to Karen.Hayden@du.edu

Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center, will moderate the panel. It is sponsored by: Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research

9News: Get Registered

About 3 million Colorado voters are on the active registration list, but only slightly over half tend to turn out in midterm elections. In an interview with 9News Nelson Garcia, both parties and the candidates are trying to increase voter registration and turnout for the 2018 election.

Elections in Colorado often are close. The June Democratic Attorney General primary was decided by 5,000 votes and Governor Bill Owens beat Gail Schoettler for the governorship by only 8,000 in 1998.

Colorado’s 2018 midterm election is considered competitive with the election of a new governor to replace term-limited John Hickenlooper and Colorado State Senate now held by Republicans by one vote.

Control of U.S. Congress will also be affected by the highly contested 6th congressional race between Mike Coffman and Jason Crow.

See 9News: A push to the polls for the midterm elections

Hickenlooper Runs for President

In an interview last Tuesday with KOA’s Jerry Bell, John Hickenlooper’s launch of his presidential campaign was discussed. Some expanded thoughts:

Governor John Hickenlooper has stepped up his run for the presidency. He’s been contemplating it since the results of the 2016 presidential election created a wide open Democratic field. Hickenlooper has been testing the water for months. He first got into the Democratic nomination process in 2016 when Hillary Clinton considered him as a potential vice president and he gave a Philadelphia Convention speech.

He is a longshot in late 2018, but starting early and getting known by local political leaders and activists is one traditional route to the nomination. Hickenlooper is now traveling to states to help Democratic gubernatorial candidates in the November election, building some name identification and supporting possible grateful winners for later endorsements.

President Barack Obama has a beer at Wynkoop Brewing Co.
with Gov. John Hickenlooper, June 2016 | Jacquelyn Martin/AP

The Democratic debates in 2019 may look like the Republicans’ 17-person, two-tier events in 2015. Hickenlooper hopes to be the frontrunner of the outside D.C. field, betting that the gaggle of leading senate candidates may fragment the left of the party. The class and identity politics they mostly champion may fall out of favor with a party in need of winning moderates and independents. And indeed, the Democratic Party has turned to outside Washington governors in recent years: Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 1992. Not infrequently they win it all.

Mostly, Hickenlooper believes the effort will be fun and serve a purpose of bringing a message of civility and problem-solving to a national politics very short of it. As Kyle Trygstad and I discussed in The Atlantic: “The message is a good message. Whether there is a voting constituency, I don’t know.”

Hickenlooper’s entire career has been a longshot. He’s had a surfeit of what a politician most needs – luck.

Midterm Election: Who Controls Congress? What Happens Next?

A record crowd of more than 250 people joined Hill and Ciruli after the surprise 2016
election  to review the polling and forecasting and the national and international fallout.

Ambassador Christopher Hill and Professor Floyd Ciruli reprise their popular post-election analyses of the November results and its domestic and international effect on November 7 at DU’s Maglione Hall.

5-7 pm, Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Maglione Hall, University of Denver Campus

Anna and John J. Sie International Relations Complex

2201 S. Gaylord St., Denver, CO

5:00 pm: Reception

5:30 pm: Presentation and conversation

6:15 pm: Discussion

Event FREE, but space limited

The post-election session will review the midterm results, the possible end of one-party control of the federal government and the likelihood of impeachment. Also, the impact, if any, on America First, and President Trump’s trade, immigrant and alliance policies. How will the results align with international trends of populism, nationalism and authoritarianism?

For more information, contact: Karen Hayden at 303.871.4374 or email to Karen.Hayden@du.edu

Sponsored by:

Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research
Office of Global Engagement
Korbel School at University of Denver

Kavanaugh Is Midterm Problem

Public opinion is not especially important for selection of Supreme Court judges. But September 2018 and the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation is not a normal confirmation. The process is taking place six weeks before the midterm elections in the middle of the intense #MeToo movement and with Donald Trump as president.

Generally, nominees are not well-known and have low negative ratings with public opinion, often based on partisanship and high “don’t know” responses. Kavanaugh began the process with a low positive rating, and now has the highest negative since NBC/WSJ began polling nominees in 2005 (38%). Kavanaugh’s high negative rating increased 9 points since the controversy over sexual harassment charges began.

The bigger vulnerability for Republicans than losing the nomination, which they still appear confident to get, is being hurt in the November election. Kavanaugh’s negative rating among women (42%) is four points more negative than it is with the general public and support at 28 percent is 13 points lower than men. Forty-nine percent of college educated women oppose the nomination.

The last thing Republicans need is more fuel on the Democrats’ get-out-the-vote fire.

See:
The Atlantic; Brett Kavanaugh could make the midterms a landmark election for women