Denver Press Club Hosts 1968, A Year of Turmoil and Transition

People say that 2018 is a year of such extraordinary political chaos and disruption that it must be unique in American history. Only the Civil War seems to compare. But, 1968 saw even more violence, turmoil and disruption.

• War: 500,000 troops in Vietnam, anti-draft riots, closing down campuses, peace with honor
• Race: MLK assassinated, urban riots, Black Panthers 
• Politics: Democratic Party in disarray, “The whole world is watching,” Southern strategy, George Wallace, Richard Nixon
• Polarization: war, race, drugs, feminism, generational gap

The Denver Press Club will host a presentation and panel titled, “1968, A Year of Turmoil and Transition,” on May 8 at 6:30 pm with social hour beginning at 5:30 pm.

I am blogging on the major events of 1968, starting with Vietnam and presidential politics.

Read blogs:
Walter Cronkite Calls Vietnam a Stalemate
March 1968: The Political Hinge

Republicans Riding Tandem With Trump

Presidential approval eight months out from the President’s first midterm election is an instructive, if not predictive, indicator of the election results in the House of Representatives. President Trump is at the low among presidents since Harry Truman and appears unable to stay on a message of accomplishment. The White House’s constant controversies and chaos are making recovery very difficult. And although eight months is a long time in the politics of the digital age, Trump and Republican congressional leadership should be worried.

As the table below shows, presidents tend to lose seats in their first midterm election, regardless of their popularity.

The midterm vote historically is a check on the incumbent president and his party. Voter turnout is lower. Passion and turnout enthusiasm is usually with the out-party. Presidents have a hard time translating their popularity (especially if only with a base of their party) to lower profile Senate and especially congressional candidates. Over the past 21 midterm elections, the incumbent presidential party has lost an average of 30 seats in the House.

President Trump | Alexander Shcherbak/TASS

Trump, of course, has little support beyond his base. Could the Republicans lose 30 to 50 House seats? Yes!

Looking at the chart shows the great presidential debacles.

• Johnson – 47 seats lost (1966), Vietnam, riots
• Ford – 48 seats lost (1971), Watergate, pardon
• Clinton – 55 seats lost (1994), rocky start and health care collapse
• Obama – 63 seats lost (2010), Tea Party formed and Obamacare

Analysis needs to go seat-by-seat, but Nancy Pelosi only requires 23 seats after the win in Pennsylvania’s 18th. Thirty seats are very doable.

See The Buzz:
Democrats could retake the House
Republican nightmare: President Clinton, Majority Leader Schumer and Speaker Pelosi

The New Authoritarianism and the Challenge to the West

“Favoring or enforcing strict obedience to authority, especially that of the government at the expense of personal freedom.”

Authoritarianism is on the rise and security, democracy, human rights and trade are in danger. For more than 70 years, America and the alliance system it helped create around the globe have supported a world order that has seen unprecedented levels of prosperity, the worldwide spread of democracy, advances in human rights and an absence of major power conflicts.

Those conditions are challenged today by authoritarian leaders. Most importantly, America’s leadership of the alliance system that promoted trade, democracy and collective security is missing, causing a massive crisis of confidence among the world democracies as they face new challenges not seen since 1930s.

Ambassador Chris Hill and pollster Floyd Ciruli will address this new dangerous rise of powerful and aggressive authoritarian leaders, the danger to democracy and what should be America’s response.

Ambassador Hill leads the office of global engagement at the University of Denver and is a professor of diplomacy. He was dean of the Korbel School for International Studies for seven years. Ciruli is a Korbel School professor teaching public opinion and foreign policy and the director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research.

Where

WorldDenver forum on April 10, 2018 at the Lakewood Country Club.

When

April 10, 2018

5:30 pm MDT-7:30 pm MDT

Tickets

Register here

Directions

Lakewood Country Club
6800 W. 10th Ave
Lakewood, CO 80214

Event Details

5:30 pm-6:15 pm: Networking Reception
6:15 pm-7:30 pm: Presentation and Q&A

Happy Birthday Nancy

Nancy Pelosi just celebrated her 78th birthday. As someone who has predicted her retirement every two years since she failed to win back the House in the 2012 election, she may defy my prognostication again and win back the speakership in 2018.

New prediction: If the Democrats take back control of the House in 2018, an arrangement will be made to let her take the gavel from Mr. Ryan, only to allow it to pass to a new elected speaker.

San Francisco Deputy Mayor Hadley Roth and Nancy Pelosi, chair
of the host committee, react to announcement that San Francisco
has been chosen to host the 1984 Democratic National
Convention, 1983 | Scott Stewart/AP

New White House Casting Call – Sound Bites, Conflict and Strong Views

The new White House team being assembled by an energized Donald Trump (more comfortable after a year into his presidency) looks like a Fox News casting call. If you like conflict as the President obviously does, this is your crew. The new members – Bolton and Kudlow – have an advantage no members of the first White House staff enjoyed – Trump sees them regularly on Fox News and CNBC. He recognizes them and hears their voices defending his policies and his behavior. Another Fox News contributor, Joseph diGenova, almost made the new team, but was out at the last moment.

Being good on TV is the way to get into this White House. But, a TV talking head may not be good for White House policymaking.

• Pundits talk in sound bites. Trump criticized H.R. McMaster’s long explanations. Two minutes is too long. Hold the background and complexity. Pictures and maps are preferred.
• TV commentators make a case. They bring a well-established point of view. Trump is unlikely to hear much about the alternatives or the other side of an issue.
• The President claims to like conflict. TV pundits will give it to him. They tend to argue against strawmen, other pundits and other cable channels. He will also get more chaos. This group likes to start new controversies.
• They often represent the outer edge of their expertise. Their views are frequently polarizing, and they join Coulter, Limbaugh, Hannity, and Fox and Friends in reinforcing Trump’s particular and often peculiar take on events, people and issues.

Trump may not be in office long enough, but these men could easily migrate to State and Treasury. Confirmation hearings would be interesting.

Congratulations Georgetown Law

Dean Bill Treanor announced today Georgetown Law was ranked 14th among the nation’s top 25 schools. It represented an improvement. We tend to compete with UCLA (16th), UT Austin (15th) and Cornell (13th).

Georgetown has one of the largest enrollments, 1,745 (Harvard 1,752), and tuition is $60,000, same as most of the top private law schools.

Colorado Politics: Will a Wave From D.C. Wash Over Colorado?

The recruiting is mostly done, the fundraising is well underway and the campaigning, especially in competitive districts, has started. The table is set for the fight for the U.S. House of Representatives.

History of midterms for a new president is not good, and the early indicators for Donald Trump are not good. In a commentary for Colorado Politics, the state’s leading political website, I examine the possibility of a wave coming out of Washington in favor of the Democrats that could roll over not only the most vulnerable Colorado federal official up for re-election, Mike Coffman, but the Republican ticket from governor down to the state legislature. I also describe the national dashboard, a snapshot of indicators as to the direction of national politics. Colorado Politics published “Will a wave from D.C. wash over Colorado?” on March 23, 2018.

The ever controversial Nancy Pelosi now only needs 23 more Democrats to win control of the House after the victory in Pennsylvania’s 18th District. Although it is clear that her time as head of the Democratic caucus is nearing a conclusion, she remains a powerful force. Democratic candidates in swing districts can get political mileage by denouncing her as Conor Lamb did to help him win the Pennsylvania House seat, yet still take money from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which she helps fund. Read more…