#NeverAgain: Is Gun Control an Issue Mike Coffman Can’t Finesse?

A new Washington Post-ABC news poll highlights that 77 percent of Americans believe Congress “is not doing enough to prevent mass shootings in this country.” The polls shows white suburban women are the most concerned about the issue. Republican congresspersons in swing districts are the most vulnerable to the passion that has erupted around the issue.

Republican Mike Coffman has won three re-elections in an Arapahoe County congressional district that increasingly votes Democrat for president and other statewide offices. He has shown considerable skill managing highly controversial issues that the national party takes pure partisan positions on, such as health care, DACA and tax reform. Coffman is now dealing with guns. A host of recent headlines have not been good:

• “Greenwood Village Town Hall: Mike Coffman booed at as people demand action on guns” (Denver Post, 2-21-18)
• “Rep. Mike Coffman is top recipient of NRA funds among CO delegation” (Colorado Politics, 2-23-18)
• “Town brawl” (Aurora Sentinel, 2-22-18)
• “Democrat Jason Crow’s first digital campaign ad targets Coffman’s gun lobby money” (Denver Channel, 2-23-18)
• Democrats take gun control demands to suburban House races” (CNN, 2-24-18)

U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman talks during a town hall meeting
 with constituents in a high school assembly hall in Greenwood
Village, Feb. 20, 2018 | David Zalubowski/AP

It remains to be seen if the gun issue has a stronger or longer life than after New Town and the myriad of subsequent mass shootings, including of Congresspersons Gabby Gifford and Steve Scalise, who are divided for and against gun control, respectively.

Coffman is a supporter and recipient of NRA money, which he defends. He does have a limited gun safety platform, including outlawing bump stocks and more federal money for school safety, but the violence that has punctuated the South Metro area from Columbine to the Aurora theater is a dangerous backdrop for a strong NRA-supported congressperson.

Hickenlooper Goes to Iowa

The DU political panel last Thursday speculated that Governor Hickenlooper was running for president and would be on his way to Iowa (the first caucus state on the road to the White House). Hickenlooper, more or less, confirmed it over the weekend in D.C. at the National Governor’s meeting when he stated he would announce his decision later this year as his gubernatorial term ends. He said he doesn’t want his staff to be distracted with a presidential run.

He made himself available on national and D.C. media on school shootings (acts of terrorism) and a new proposal for health care announced with his fellow governors. He and Governor John Kasich of Ohio had already promoted a health proposal last August with some hints of an independent run for president. Kasich is making early moves to oppose President Trump’s nomination.

The Democratic primary in 2020 should be a wide open battle. Looking back to 1976 after the Nixon impeachment and Ted Kennedy decided not to run and the 1992 primary when Mario Cuomo left the field to a host of aspiring Democratic contenders, in both cases, moderate governors from southern states won the nomination.

Could this be the year for a moderate governor from Colorado?

Gov. John Hickenlooper joins others to push bipartisan National
 Health Care Compromise, Feb. 25, 2018 | CBS Denver 

Tancredo is Out. Who Are the Frontrunners for Governor? A Panel of Experts.
Sponsored by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research
Moderator: Floyd Ciruli, Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the Korbel School; Panelists: Dick Wadhams – Republican campaign manager and former State Chair; Steve Welchert – Democratic campaign manager; Melanie Layton and Zoey DeWolf –Colorado lobbyists with Colorado Legislative Services; and Vincent Carroll – Former editorial page editor for Rocky Mountain News and Denver Post. Thursday, Feb. 22

Pueblo Chieftain: Colorado Candidates and Gun Control

The Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting has made gun control a top issue for Colorado gubernatorial candidates.

They are following the national distinctions between the parties, but with a slightly more restrained approach among Democrats given the state’s reputation as more gun friendly and the 2013 recall backlash on new gun laws. Peter Roper in a Pueblo Chieftain quoted me and polled the candidates on their proposals.

Floyd Ciruli, whose Ciruli Associates polls are among the must trusted in Colorado, said the continuing tragedies of mass shootings has moved the public's opinion on gun control, but not the political leadership.

"Nationally, the support for specific gun-control measures tends be around 60 percent or higher, but the political lines haven't budged much at all," Ciruli said. "Politically, the gun question is still considered to be very controversial, especially in swing districts."

Most candidates mentioned mental health. The following are highlights recorded by Roper.

March for Our Lives; Will Florida Make a Difference?

Will the mass shooting in Florida change the politics of gun control? It may, but the track record is very mixed. After the elementary shooting in Newtown, Connecticut in 2012, no gun legislation passed the U.S. Senate. Colorado, however, passed gun control laws in 2013, and became a test case of the proposition: Can gun control start at the local level and go national? The answer turned out to be no.

Democrats, having taken over both houses of the Colorado legislature and controlling the governorship, rapidly passed a background check and limit on magazines in the 2013 legislative session. But, gun supporters, aided by the National Rifle Association, struck back by instigating two recall special elections against senior Democratic state senators, and they won. The recalls had a chilling effect on gun control legislation, not only in Colorado, but throughout the country.

National and local polling shows the public is mostly favorably disposed toward a number of specific gun control measures, even while they support the Second Amendment. A recent Colorado poll by CU shows a majority of the public favors increased gun control by 59 percent to 37 percent, but that there are significant partisan differences.

National surveys that ask if the public supports or opposes stricter gun laws often record a divided response, with a modest majority favoring stricter laws (CNN, stricter laws 52%, Oct. 15, 2017; Gallup 60%, Oct. 11, 2017; Quinnipiac 59%, Dec. 18, 2017). However, when specific laws are proposed, support can reach more than 9 out of 10 people, for example, 95 percent support background checks for all gun buyers (Quinnipiac, Dec. 18-20, 2017.

Democrats and Republicans Split on Sympathy for Israel

Although Israel still receives considerable sympathy from Americans in its dispute with Palestinians (46% for Israel, 16% for Palestine), there is now a significant partisan gap in sympathy, with a 52-point difference between Republicans’ (79%) sympathy for Israel compared to Democrats’ (27%).

The gap began in earnest toward the end of President George W. Bush’s second term. Republicans had been consistently more supportive of Israel than Democrats since the start of the Pew Research measurement in the late 1970s. But, sympathy jumped from the 50 percent level to the 70s after 2006, especially among conservative Republicans. Support for Israel among Democrats, on the other hand, while somewhat lower, remained steady until the 2014 period, then it dropped 15 points to the current 27 percent.

The two shifts in sympathy are an example of domestic politics significantly affecting the public’s foreign policy viewpoint. Evangelical Republicans became increasingly committed to Israel’s security as the site of the biblical story during the Bush presidency. Israeli politics became much more conservative under Prime Ministers Ariel Sharon and Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli government hostility toward the Obama administration intensified based on settlement policies and the Iran agreement. Republican political leaders welcomed Netanyahu to speak to Congress on his opposition to the Iran government without the Obama administration’s involvement in May 2015.

The Trump administration has pledged its close support for Israel’s position in negotiations with Palestinians and announced it’s moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a controversial position avoided by previous American presidents.

The new alignments are creating stress among American Jews who support Israel, but are domestic liberals and Democrats. Israel may find a much more conflicted and less supportive U.S. government when the Democrats regain control in D.C.

American Jews (7 million, depending on definition, voted 70 percent for Hillary Clinton.

See Pew Report: Republicans and Democrats grow even further apart in views of Israel, Palestinians

Cultural Tax Error Corrected

It required a failed special session and involved much partisan wrangling, but a correction to a legislative error concerning collecting retail marijuana taxes passed easily in the first six weeks of the 2018 legislative session. Sponsors Republican Senator Bob Gardner and Democratic Representative KC Becker helped design and pass the legislation. Lt. Governor Donna Lynn signed the bill. Thank you Donna.

Considerable effort was expended by the lobby teams representing the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD), RTD and the independent group, Citizens for Arts to Zoo that supports the SCFD. Fortunately, by staying engaged in the legislative correction, culture support retrieved an estimated $9 million for the SCFD and its programs during the life of the 2016 extension.

Additional good news came this week with the report of the 2017 sales tax revenue. The year’s final sales tax revenue shows $59.8 collected for distribution, a 5.7 percent increase over 2016. Over the next 12 years, upward of $1 billion (at a 3.7% increase) will be collected and distributed for the benefit of the citizens and visitors of the SCFD region. What a gift for our cultural quality of life.

Read:
Bill to resolve pot tax error heads to Hickenlooper’s desk
Fix to marijuana taxes for special districts headed to Colorado governor
Bill to restore marijuana-tax funding to RTD, SCFD signed into law

Unaffiliated Voters May Be Deciders in June 26 Primary

Due to Proposition 108, passed in the November 2016 general election, unaffiliated voters will receive the mail-back primary ballot for both parties and can select a primary they are most interested in and mail it back. (They can only vote in for one party primary to be counted.)

Colorado Politics Ernest Luning describes the potential impact 1.1 million unaffiliated voters could have on the crowded June 26 primaries for both parties. Given the crowded ballots for both parties for governor, a candidate could win with 30 to 35 percent of the vote, meaning a few thousand unaffiliated voters could be decisive.

I pointed out many unaffiliated voters have partisan feelings and considerable passion that can be activated by a particular candidate or campaign.

“The unaffiliated voter is not necessarily a moderate — in many cases it’s more liberal or more conservative than even the typical partisan,” Ciruli says. And while they might not belong to a party, there’s little doubt where their sympathies lie. “There won’t be a whole lot of people choosing between the two.”

In other states that hold open primaries, he noted, unaffiliated voters often amp things up rather than moderate the outcome.

“When they have been involved, it’s been sending a message or voting for a celebrity type of politician — a Bernie Sanders, a Donald Trump fit that category and attracted them,” Ciruli said.

After former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo’s departure from the GOP gubernatorial primary last week, Ciruli added, Colorado’s primary might not have that kind of choice on either ballot.