Colorado Politics: Higher Education in Crisis

Political polarization is affecting higher education. Higher education institutions have lost respect with the public in recent years, especially among Republicans. Many institutions are also facing a crisis in revenue, including public funds, enrollment and student debt, which has affected the value people ascribe to a four-year degree. Even Colorado’s respected anchor institutions are dealing with a rapidly changing business model and educational marketplace.

In a Colorado Politics article, I examine the politics of the crisis.

Higher education is in political trouble

Higher education is facing turbulent times. It must navigate tight budgets, high prices, enrollment shortfalls and sky-rocketing student debt.

Since the Great Recession, state budgets for public higher education institutions have declined by 16 percent per student, and during the past decade, tuition at four-year colleges and universities nationally is up 35 percent by almost $2,500. In Colorado, the triumvirate of the recession, TABOR limits and competing state budget interests has caused tuition increases of 63 percent since 2008. And, without other recourse, students have made up the difference by going into debt, which has increased by 59 percent since 2000.

Private schools face their own budget demands, leading to dramatic tuition increases and piles of student debt. A single year in a private college can easily cost $40,000, relieved by some grants and student aid, but still requiring loans in most cases.

The financial surge has translated into an enrollment crises. Large percentages of the population are beginning to question the value of a four-year degree. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows only half of the public believes “a four-year degree is worth the cost because people have a better chance to get a good job and earn more money over their lifetime.” And 47 percent said it wasn’t worth it “because people often graduate without specific job skills and with a large amount of debt to pay off.” Among Millennials, 57 percent said it wasn’t worth it. That reflects an increase of 19 points from Millennials who said a degree wasn’t worth the cost just four years ago.

Addressing higher education budget and enrollment problems is compounded by political divisions. Read more...

Korbel School Sponsors Third Session on Trump Presidency – One Year After the Trump Election: Is America Great Again?

Chris Hill and Floyd Ciruli deconstruct the impact on American democracy and foreign policy one year after the election of Donald J. Trump. Join us in Maglione Hall on November 1 for the two-hour session. The presentation is the third in a series that began the day after the election (Nov. 9) and continued on May 1 at the administration’s 100 days mark. The event will be held at the Korbel School as Dean and former Ambassador Hill begins his new campus-wide duties as special advisor to the Chancellor for international engagement and a professor of diplomacy.

For more information and to register for the event, click here

The New Chinese Politburo

Xi Jinping will be China’s principal leader for another five years, even though China still maintains a veneer of collective leadership represented by the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee. At 64 years old, Xi is like most members, a Baby Boomer born in 1953. Xi has strengthened the grip of the party, purged or sidelined rivals, and could break recent precedent and remain president for a third five-year block, or until 2027. He would be over 70 years old, the nominal retirement age for Politburo Standing Committee members. But by not selecting any member less than 60 years old, Xi signaled no replacement was being groomed for a transition.

The 2017 Chinese National Congress marks the beginning of the Xi era. His leadership team is in place. In a three and one-half hour speech, Xi presented a vision for not five, but 30 years in which he sees China as a “great modern socialist country” at the center stage of the world and a new authoritarian model for other developing countries to follow. He believes the West is dispirited, divided and distracted while China is a confident, growing power. In a final act before adjournment, the party faithful amended the party constitution to add Xi’s thoughts as a guiding principal: “socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era.”

Although the entire production looks solid, it has a fragile base. Xi is attempting to instill ideological discipline with dated Marxism and strict Leninism to justify the party and its exclusive hold on power. But legitimacy is mostly based on satisfaction with the direction of the economy and improved quality of life. In fact, Xi and his team must work every day to ensure growth and the distribution of its benefits like every other great state. It is not clear Xi’s latest modification of the model can do it.

It is also unlikely that the world’s largest, most opaque and most repressive political party will become a model welcomed by most countries, regardless of Xi’s personal charisma or China’s public relations tools.

Is America Great Again?

Chris Hill and Floyd Ciruli deconstruct the impact on American democracy and foreign policy one year after the election of Donald J. Trump. The presentation is the third in a series that began the day after the election (Nov. 9) and continued on May 1 at the administration’s 100 days mark. The event will be held at the Korbel School as Dean and former Ambassador Hill begins his new campus-wide duties as special advisor to the Chancellor for international engagement and a professor of diplomacy.

For more information and to register for the event, click here

Taxes, Gridlock and the Market

The stars are aligned for tax cuts to pass before the holidays. The converging forces are the 2018 midterm elections without a legislative accomplishment, the latest Gallup poll recording Congress at a recent low in approval (13%), Washington dysfunction rated the country’s top problem (health care is second), and several polls showing Democrats with double-digit leads in the generic ballot test.

Of course, the dissatisfaction is being framed by the spectacular failure of health care repeal and replace and specifically a revolt against the Republican establishment fanned by Steve Bannon, the Breitbart populist-nationalist.

The only metric that has been working for Republicans has been the stock market with its dramatic 26 percent rise from a year ago to 23000. Tax cuts are seen as critical to investor optimism and the market’s buoyancy.

It’s hard to imagine a better or more urgent moment for Republican action.

Colorado Politics: Millennials Move Colorado Left

The Millennial generation, 75 million strong, are finally fully within voting age. They are shifting politics to the left, especially on many cultural issues, and helped give Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton their Colorado wins and make the state one of the first in the nation to legalize recreational marijuana.

In a Colorado Politics column (4), the impact of Colorado’s Millennials on the 2012 election is described:

Millennials Moving Colorado to the Left

Although Colorado remains competitive between the two main political parties, with candidates representing both parties winning statewide races and splitting control of the state legislature, the state has, in fact, moved at least two points to the Democratic side of the scale since 2006. This is most clearly shown in terms of registration and voter behavior in presidential elections. Republicans have lost their registration advantage. Voters not affiliated with a party are now the largest political group in the state, and polling shows that they skew younger and somewhat more liberal and Democratic. The presidential races since 1996 offer evidence that Colorado has shifted to the Democratic side with Barack Obama’s elections, and has remained in that camp through Hillary Clinton’s win in the state during the 2016 presidential election.

One reason for the shift is that voters under 35 years old are flooding the voter rolls nationally and, when motivated to vote, are changing the politics of the country and Colorado. 

Millennials have now overtaken Baby Boomers as the largest population cohort, and as they register and turn out to vote, they will become the dominant voting bloc by the 2020 presidential election. In 2016 presidential election polls conducted by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver’s Korbel School, Colorado’s Millennials distinguished themselves with a number of characteristics. More

Dow Ignores the Chaos

President Trump and his wild 271 days in office haven’t slowed one of the most impressive market climbs in history. The market is up 26 percent since Trump’s November 8 election in 2016 (market was 18333) and up 17 percent year-to-date. And although nervousness abounds, there are still reasons to believe the ascent may continue.

In spite of Trump’s low approval ratings, lack of legislative accomplishments and near daily controversies, the investor class is still confident that the business climate will continue to improve due to regulatory relief and a tax cut by the end of the year. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has told Congress the market is linked to their fast action.

Highlighting some of the anxiety about the direction of the boom, a spate of stories pointed out it was 30 years ago, October 19, 1987, that a fast climbing Dow dropped 22.6 percent, or 508 points (Black Monday, Dow started 2246). The market is up 4800 points since the November election.

The Dow is benefitting from a world that appears in a synchronized recovery with Europe, China and Pacific Rim countries all experiencing steady growth after the lingering Great Recession. Federal Reserve is holding calm, oil has stayed in a tight range and earnings are still good. No doubt, a correction is coming, but as of today, the market looks slated for more growth.

Also see The Buzz blogs:
Soaring market and plunging polls
Trump surge builds on Obama’s recovery
Trump gives the rally a boost
Trump rally breaks 20000 in near record speed