Trump’s Worst Week

President Trump hasn’t had a lot of good weeks in his first seven months which explains why his public standing is well below historic norms (40% or less). But the last week of July may be his worst.

• Health care votes have lost 7 to 9 Republican senators for a range of measures and finally failed when three members voted against a scaled-down version. Republicans can only lose two to push something to a House-Senate conference. Major defeat. 
• Trump’s Twitter tirade against Attorney General Sessions was mostly condemned as mean-spirited, belittling and unjustified. Most importantly, Republicans and conservatives shut him down. He looked weak.

  

  Recently resigned Chief of Staff Reince Priebus (L)
   and White House Communications Director Anthony
  Scaramucci (R) | Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP

• His addition of Anthony Scaramucci as Communications Director has started a public war between Scaramucci, Chief of Staff Reince Priebus (now former) and Chief Strategist Steve Bannon. Scaramucci may not be media ready, even if Trump likes the “all attitude” approach. Priebus is out, which may allow a “reset,” but it reinforces the sense of White House chaos.
• In an effort to save a House funding bill, Trump tweeted a ban on transgender individuals in the military. The goal was to stop paying for medical procedures, not open up another fight over a total ban. It may be popular with his base, but it reinforces an image of thoughtlessness.
• But the pièce de résistance of the week was Trump’s partisan campaign speech to 45,000 teen and pre-teen boy scouts and their chaperones. The speech was nearly universally panned as inappropriate (a word often attached to Trump) and required the Boy Scout’s executive director to offer scouts and their families an apology for the “political rhetoric that was inserted into our jamboree.” An audience made for inspiration got the cynical jokes and jabs.

Although the President’s tone is appreciated by his dependable, but narrow base, Americans disapprove of Trump’s un-presidential conduct and claim it’s damaging the presidency. Seventy percent of the public, including 38 percent of Republicans, describe his conduct as “un-presidential” rather than “fitting and proper” (24%) as reported in the recent ABC News/Washington Post poll (July 2017). Important to the Boy Scout imbroglio is the data point that 68 percent of the public does not see him as a positive role model for young people.

Trump and supporters will argue that his jobs efforts in Wisconsin and anti-gang initiative were successes last week. But, who would know about them with the flood of crises and controversies, most of which were personally started and sustained by Donald Trump.

See ABC News/Washington Post poll: Public to Trump: #StopTweeting

DU and CU Are Highly Favored in Denver Metro Area

The metropolitan Denver public has a positive view of the University of Denver (DU) and the University of Colorado (CU) and they are closely matched in public opinion in the Denver area.

Overall Favorability
In a voter survey conducted by Ciruli Associates in 2016, DU received a 41 percent “very favorable” rating, followed closely by CU with a 37 percent “very favorable” rating. The total favorability ratings (combining “very” and “somewhat” favorable) were 74 percent and 73 percent, respectively. A few more people were unable to rate DU (22%) CU than (18%), and CU had a slightly higher negative rating (9%) than DU (5%).

County Ratings
One difference in perception of the two universities was their rating within individual counties in the seven-county metro area. Some of the variation is explained by differences in public awareness of the institutions and different negative ratings. DU had a 9-point negative rating in Adams and Denver counties. It was not well-known in Boulder (38%) and Douglas (32%) counties. CU had a high negative in Douglas County (19%) and was not well-known in Jefferson County (26%).

Partisan Ratings
Although there was a partisan difference, with Democrats more favorably disposed than Republicans, both institutions received high favorable ratings from each party.

Comparison with Other Organizations and Leaders
In comparison to other organizations and leaders in the metro area, the schools were in the high middle range of favorability. They were not as high as major cultural facilities, but higher than some sport teams and the Governor.

Both schools are well thought of during a time in which the public has generally low trust and confidence in most institutions.

The telephone survey was conducted by landline and cell phones with 600 voters in the seven-county Denver metro area in May 2016 by Ciruli Associates.

North Korea has Potential for War

North Korea may be the most likely place for the next war to break out. The American people are very concerned, and the Chinese military are ramping up activities along the 800-mile border to prepare for any crisis that might develop.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll shows that 81 percent of Americans consider North Korea as a threat and nearly three-fourths (74%) believe there could be a full-scale war. (July 10-13, 2017)

Fox News reports that more than half (55%) of the public believes military force may be necessary to stop North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. (July 16-18, 2017)

But actually going to war over North Korean weapons has only 51 percent public support and it is mostly through a partisan lens, with Republicans (73%) twice as likely to support war than Democrats (39%).

Partisanship also affected the public’s judgement as to President Trump’s ability to handle the crisis. Only 22 percent of the public said they had a “great deal” of trust in Trump handling the crisis, but 40 percent said they had “none at all.” Not surprising, there was major partisan differences, with only 4 percent of Democrats having a “great deal” of confidence in Trump handling a crisis, but 52 percent of Republicans were confident.

However, worry about a war was non-partisan.

More Tweets, Not Less

The public is mostly Twitter averse to Donald Trump’s daily barrage of tweets. Polls repeatedly show upwards of 60 percent of the public thinks President Trump should contain his Twitter habit.

ABC News poll of July 18, 2017 reported that 68 percent of respondents described the President’s tweets “inappropriate,” 65 percent “insulting,” and 52 percent “dangerous.” Women are more critical with 78 percent citing his tweets as “inappropriate.” A Fox News poll reported in late June that 71 percent of the public believed the tweets were hurting the President’s agenda.

Trump’s rationale for ignoring the advice has been that it allows him to communicate directly to his followers around the “Fake News” and in a modern fashion.

President Trump

But his latest tweets are well beyond trying to avoid “Fake News” and talk directly to followers. In fact, he’s not avoiding the press, but giving long, unscripted interviews to the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, clearly “Fake News” outlets in his view.

Rather, his latest tweets are direct public communication to berate a cabinet officer and to issue official government policy using the White House’s staff to project a type of “policy speak.” In his latest tweet on transgender and the military, he said: “After consultation with my Generals and military experts, please be advised that the United States Government will not accept or allow Transgender individuals to serve in any capacity in the U.S. Military.” “Our military must be focused on decisive and overwhelming victory and cannot be burdened with the tremendous medical costs and disruption that transgender in the military would entail. Thank you.”

Notice it opened with “my Generals” and closed with “Thank you” not often seen in government official language, but close enough.

The public is divided as to if his tweets are official government policy or just presidential musings. Clearly, they are becoming more official. Also, expect more tweets as Trump attempts to run the government from his office, bedroom, etc. as basically a one-person show.

Western States are Trump’s Strongest

A new Gallup poll of Donald Trump’s state-by-state job approval offers a few surprises. In spite of the wild ride of the first six months and the general decline in Trump’s approval rating to 40 percent and lower, a host of states have residents that give him approvals above 50 percent. Many of the 17 states that offer more than 50 percent approval are in the High Plains and Mountain West. In fact, more are in the west than the south.

Also, Trump gets better than his average (40%) grades in the states key to his victory: Michigan (42%), Pennsylvania (43%), Wisconsin (43%), plus Florida (42%), Iowa (43%) and Ohio (47%). Hence, Democrats still have a “Blue Wall” problem in spite of Trump’s controversies.

New England and the coasts dominate the states providing Trump’s lowest approval rating. Vermont is the home of Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts is the only state to vote for George McGovern.

Colorado with a 38 percent is one of the 17 states offering the lowest level of approval.

Can Coffman Be Beat?

Democrats clearly are planning on another major campaign against Mike Coffman in 2018. Four of them (now three) have already indicated they are running.

Why? Coffman’s track record in crushing well-thought-of and well-funded Democrats is beyond debate. In the 2014 off-year election, he defeated Andrew Romanoff by 25,000 votes and last November, as Hillary Clinton was winning his district, Coffman slammed local legislator Morgan Carroll by 30,000 votes.

But Jason Crow, the designated establishment candidate, is leading the field and appears to have the national party’s backing. He is dealing with carpetbagger issues, but likely will be able to manage it with a move into the district.

In an interview with the Aurora Sentinel’s Ramsey Scott:

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli said it’s hard to determine if a lack of residency in a district produces a drag on a candidate’s chances of winning an election given all the factors that go into an election. In cases like Ossoff and Andrew Romanoff, who moved into the 6th Congressional District to unsuccessfully challenge Coffman in 2014, the main result is it puts Coffman’s credibility as an Aurora resident front and center.

“(The issue) highlights Coffman’s strengths. Coffman is the district,” Ciruli said. “He has really established his bonafides as an Auroran in that district, and so consequently if you do live outside the district, it is a tremendous contrast between the two candidates.”

Trump Makes the Difference for Democrats

But Democrats are motivated by what appears to be the unprecedented low approval ratings of President Trump. The general rule is that approval ratings at or below 40 percent produce very significant swings in congressional races.

Gallup reports that Trump has 50 percent or higher ratings in 17 states and he is below 40 percent in an equal number of states.

Several states with the highest Trump ratings surround Colorado: Utah (50%), Wyoming (56%), Idaho (53%), Montana (56%), Nebraska (52%) and Kansas (53%). But Colorado at 38 percent is a part of Trump’s worst 17 states, with western states Oregon (38%), Washington (36%) and New Mexico (37%).

National Democrats believe if there is at least a 24-seat wave in their favor (they need 24 to win the majority) that Mike Coffman’s seat is likely to be one of them. Their calculation demonstrates the power of national thinking on congressional strategy because by Coffman’s local performance, he looks nearly impossible to beat.

Water Issues Between Pueblo and Colorado Springs Engenders Potential Ballot Issue

Colorado Springs Mayor John Suthers |
Photo: Mark Reis

Colorado Springs, a notoriously difficult community to raise taxes and fees, is planning on a stormwater fee increase November ballot issue to get the city out from under a nearly $500 million obligation to Pueblo County for 20 years worth of stormwater improvements. The City argues that unless they raise fees, all services and obligations, such as police and parks, will be starved for revenue.

The stormwater fee supporters have a poll that shows 51 percent support. In an article by Pam Zubeck for the Colorado Springs Independent, I opined that it was a very narrow cushion for a campaign:

Ciruli says while it's not scientific, it's a "general truism" in the political world that a ballot measure must poll high before campaigns begin, because support can be expected to fade during the election season. He also notes that if developers, builders and contractors turn out to be the chief funders of the "vote yes" effort, it might engender skepticism.

"You just had a council race that showed developers aren't exactly running things at the moment," he says, referring to only one of five candidates backed by developers winning Council seats in the April 4 city election. "The general rule is if these things have any opposition they tend to go down." There's been no early signs of organized opposition.