Hickenlooper and Chuck Todd

In an interview on NBC News, John Hickenlooper argued for the Democratic Party to become a
“large tent” and welcome its business and more conservative members. With a well-trimmed look and tight responses, Governor Hickenlooper took on Chuck Todd’s questions concerning meeting with Attorney General Jeff Sessions on marijuana and sanctuary cities. Hickenlooper said:

• Sessions is strongly anti-drug, including marijuana, but intervention in state marijuana policies does not appear a priority. Hickenlooper advocated for state-federal collaboration on drug policy.
• There is a gray area in local enforcement of immigration, but Hickenlooper believes considerable conflict will continue. Both he and Sessions believe there should be a congressional fix.
• The Democratic Party is in a useful period of re-imagination; he’s part of the discussion and it should welcome its business wing as part of a “large tent” party.

Watch full interview here

Pre-100-Day Polls in on Trump: Not Good

President Trump | Getty

ABC/Washington Post, NBC/Wall Street Journal and Gallup released polls over the weekend that showed President Trump has failed to improve his poor approval rating during the first 100 days. In fact, his ratings declined after a weak start and remain in the cellar.

Although Trump cherry picked a couple of positive numbers, he declared, in general, they were “fake news.”

Unfortunately for the poll sensitive President heading into his 100-day report card, more than half the public disapproves of his performance, and his approval at slightly more than 40 percent is below even the weak general election vote he received (46%). Of the biggest concern among national Republican leaders is the flat trend line, even with a White House receiving saturation coverage and a few popular items being accomplished, including the Neil Gorsuch confirmation and the missile strike against President Assad in Syria.

Although Trump holds his core base of voters, they are less than a third of the total electorate. His other advantage at this point is the Democrats are even less popular than Trump and Republicans.

Nonetheless, he is still described by the public as seriously lacking the judgement (41% yes has judgement, 56% no), and personality and temperament to be president (38% yes has temperament, 59% no) (ABC/WP). In terms of the first 100 days, most people say Trump was “off to a poor start (45%) or a “fair start” (19%). Only one-third of the public (35%) said he was “off to a “good or great start” (NBC/WSJ).

See:

Politico: Trump blasts recent approval rating polls as “fake news”

Hill and Ciruli: President Trump’s First 100 Days

On May 1, Dean Christopher Hill and pollster Floyd Ciruli will present an analysis of President Donald Trump’s first 100 days at the University of Denver’s Korbel School.

The White House’s successes, failures, the polling results and where American foreign policy is headed are the topics. The White House may deny the historical standard is important, but they are rushing to put points up the final week. But, most importantly, it is useful to pause after the intense 14 weeks of the Trump administration and examine what’s been accomplished and what’s next. Hill and Ciruli will especially focus on foreign policy and what can be expected in Europe, the Middle East and the Pacific.

Will it be the best 100 days in history or the worst, is the White House a well-oiled machine or chaos center, and is the foreign policy unpredictable or incoherent?

Register for event here

French Pollsters Nail It

First round of French elections Sunday produced a result predicted for several weeks by French pollsters, even though the last few days of polls showed a very close race.

Emmanuel Macron led with 24 percent and the final poll showed 23 percent. Marine Le Pen grabbed second with 21 percent and the final polls had her at 22 percent. The remaining three candidates’ results were within a point of final polls.

The run-off election is May 7, and pre-election polls show any of the top three candidates would beat Le Pen. Macron was the strongest at about 60 percent and 40 percent for Le Pen. French pollsters published their final pre-election polls on Friday, April 21. They then release a final poll on Election Day.

The five candidates represented 91 percent of the vote.

Although the pollsters nailed it, France’s politics is wide open. Le Pen’s campaign may have stalled from its showing earlier in the year (28%), but the anti-EU populist candidates still attracted nearly half of the vote. And the two major parties – the Socialists and Republicans – are in collapse. Hence, French politics is dominated by outsiders without identified governing majorities creating possibilities for significant change or massive gridlock.

Like recent elections in most Western democracies, there was significant division between the urban and more rural vote. Le Pen received about 5 percent of the vote in Paris and Macron 35 percent. Contrary to Donald Trump’s view, the final terrorist attack did not surge votes to his favorite candidate, Le Pen.

Trump Trying to Put Points on the Board

Donald Trump, who lives for ratings and is hypersensitive about crowd size, claims he’s no longer interested in the “first 100-day” standard. In fact, the White House has been obsessed about it for weeks, holding branding meetings and claiming that “no administration has accomplished more in the first 90 days.” Most recently, President Trump has made clear he needs “points on the board” by April 29 and is trying to revive health care.

For the Korbel School and Crossley Center, the historical standard is a useful measure. On May 1, join them for an assessment of Trump’s first 100 days.

Read:
Politico:  Trump scoffs at 100-day mark as ‘ridiculous standard’
CNBC: Trump calls first 100 days as ‘ridiculous standard’ – even though he set it as a standard

Will it be the best 100 days in history or the worst, is the White House a well-oiled machine or chaos center, and is the foreign policy unpredictable or incoherent?

The Beltway Rules – Shutdown

The government shutdown in 2013 was caused by a confrontation with Obamacare opponents and divided party government. It lasted 16 days in October as Republicans shed points in national polls. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell got credit for settling it and has promised it won’t happen this year.

It would be profoundly stupid for the Republican Party, which controls all three branches of government, to let it shut down over internal policy disputes, especially after the Obamacare repeal and replace collapse.

• “Take all necessary steps to avoid a government shutdown” (65%) or “If it helps them achieve their policy goals” (17%) – support shutdown 17%, with 22% Republicans and 14% Democrats; 23% men and 13% women

Read Politico: Poll: Voters recoil from government shutdown

Hickenlooper, Gardner and Bennet’s Job Approval

Morning Consult, an online poll from web journal Politico, asked a national sample of its participants the job performance of the governors and senators of every state. Governor John Hickenlooper and Senators Michael Bennet and Cory Gardner have middling ratings.

Governor
The highest rated governors received scores in the mid-sixty percent range and above. Charlie Baker, a Democrat in Massachusetts, had the highest approval at 75 percent. The highest rated large-state governor was Greg Abbott (R) of Texas (64%). Westerners Brian Sandoval (R) of Nevada and Gary Herbert (R) of Utah also had 64 percent approvals.

John Hickenlooper was in the upper half of the list of 50 governors with 61 percent, joined by nearby governor Matt Mead (R) in Wyoming (60%) and Steve Bullock (R) in Montana (59%). The governor with the lowest approval was Chris Christie at 25 percent.

Senate
Small state senators were more popular than those in large states. At the top were Vermont Democrats Bernie Sanders (I) with 75 percent and Patrick Leahy (D) 70 percent approvals. Wyoming’s and Maine’s two senators were next with approval ratings above 66 percent. Also, they all had single digit “don’t know” ratings. Their citizens know them.

Colorado’s two senators were in the lower half of the list, with Michael Bennet at 54 percent and Cory Gardner receiving 49 percent approval. They both had high percentage of people who could not rate them.