"Sergeant, I Hope You Like Vodka"

After America’s military and foreign policy elite make the obligatory wave off of a new Cold War with Russia, or more specifically with Putinism, they will usually admit that Russian behavior since January 2014 when they lied about the seizure of Crimea constitutes a profound, relentless strategy of aggression against the West and especially the U.S.

But the most consequential act of Russian aggression was against American democracy starting in March 2016 and intensifying during the last month of the campaign with the well-timed released emails from WikiLeaks. Unless we just choose to ignore it, Russian intelligence directly intervened in the U.S. election and tilted the result toward Donald Trump. And given Mr. Trump’s professed friendship with Vladimir Putin, we should all get more familiar with Russian preferences, or as the Sergeant said in War Games, “I just hope they don’t make me eat none of them damn fish eggs.”

Admiral Michael Rogers, head of NSA, describing the WikiLeaks attack:

“There’s an ongoing investigation. I’m just not getting into the specifics. I still think there shouldn’t be any doubt in anybody’s mind. This was not something done casually. This was not something done by chance. This was not a target that was selected purely arbitrarily. This was a conscious effort by a nation-state to attempt to achieve a specific effect.”

WarGames (1983)

The Year of the Women Did Not Happen

Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton hoped the historic nature of her candidacy would propel an extra high turnout of women who would vote for her at extra high margins. That strategy appeared to be well-conceived as the statements of Donald Trump, especially in the Access Hollywood tape, and accusations from numerous women of his past behavior generated massive coverage and criticism.

And, indeed, there was a historic gender gap between the preference of men and women voters (24 points). But, the gender difference was a wash as she won women by 12 points, but lost men by the same percentage. In fact, her 12-point advantage over Trump was not much better than Barack Obama’s in the 2012 election (11 points over Mitt Romney). Nor was turnout higher than 2012.

Also, she lost white women by 10 points according to the exit poll. The poll confirms the significant difference the level of education makes. White women with degrees favored Clinton by 7 points, but she lost non-college graduates to Trump by 28 points.

The real gender advantage was with Trump. He won white men by 32 points, white men with college degrees by 15 points and white male non-college graduates by 49 points.

In each category, Clinton did better in Colorado. She won women by 16 points and only lost men by 8 points, providing a net positive gender difference for her of 8 points. Also, she won white women by 6 points and only lost white men by 12 points. Although the trends were similar to the national data, across-the-board she did better in Colorado and he did worse.

Also read:
Newsweek: The presidential election was a referendum on gender and women lost
FiveThirtyEight: Clinton couldn’t win over white women

Ed Perlmutter: Drain the House Swamp

Rep. Ed Perlmutter

Ed Perlmutter, who seldom generates headlines, breaks ideological ranks or battles his party leadership, has just taken on the most powerful woman leader in the Democratic Party – Nancy Pelosi.

Although it is unlikely Perlmutter’s candidate for minority leader, Tim Ryan (46 years old, Ohio), will beat Pelosi, the entire House Democratic leadership team is near the end of its run (Pelosi ‘76, Steny Hoyer ‘77, and Jim Clyburn ’76).

Pelosi and her team have led House Democrats through four elections where they have failed to win a majority. Her current rationale for leading the fifth effort is that it will be like 2006 during George W. Bush’s second midterm election when Democrats won 30 seats and made her Speaker. Another scenario she doesn’t’ use is in 2010 when her leadership of the House with Barack Obama as a first term president led to a 63-seat Democratic loss and replaced her as Speaker with John Boehner.

It is possible Donald Trump could make a mess of his first two years, but it seems arguable. Ms. Pelosi will make much of a contribution to causing his problems or exploiting them for the Democrats. She has become a high-profile defender of the Democratic Party establishment and D.C. status quo.

Also read The Buzz: Pelosi Retires?

Unique Election: Clinton Wins Overall Vote, Loses Swing States

An extraordinary election. The female candidate gets more votes than her male opponent and more votes (63.6 million and still counting) than any candidate in history except Barack Obama, but loses the presidency. She lost a series of swing states in the rust belt by mostly small margins and the electoral vote 232 to 306 (when Michigan is declared, which she lost by about 11,000 votes).

Although counting is continuing, mostly in three of the West Coast states, which she will win by 60 percent or so, Hillary Clinton is now more than a million votes ahead (1.7 million on 11-21-16), more than any candidate in history among those who won the popular vote and lost the electoral vote. Al Gore was ahead by about 543,000 of George W. Bush in 2000.

About 7 million votes went to third-party candidates in this election, exceeding Ralph Nader’s total in 2000 (2.9 million).

Turnout in general was about equal to the Obama election of 2012, but below 2008. Part of Clinton’s problem was that turnout was lower in those competitive swing states she lost. Many Obama voters simply did not turn out.

See articles:
Washington Post: Why did Trump win? In part because voter turnout plunged.
FiveThirtyEight: Voter turnout fell, especially in states that Clinton won

Colorado Voters Want Strong Alliances and Solutions to the Immigration Problem

In a pre-election statewide survey, Colorado voters were asked their priorities in terms of foreign policy. “Strengthen our alliances with other countries” (60% top priority) and “address the immigration system” (60%) were tied for their top priority in the University of Denver/Crossley Center survey conducted in late October.

Clustered in a secondary position among the five issues tested were climate change (47%), a military build-up (45%) and “action” related to rivals, such as Russia, China and Iran (44%).

There were some dramatic differences among Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton supporters that will be relevant given the president-elect’s preferences and administration team now being assembled.

For example, Trump supporters strongly want to build up the military (75%), but it was a non-priority item for Clinton supporters (17%). The reverse was true on climate change. Clinton supporters made it their top priority (81%), but it was a non-priority for Trump voters (12%).

Both camps want to strengthen the alliance system, but Trump supporters are interested in being more active with rivals, including Russia, than Clinton supporters. In both of these areas, Trump is somewhat out of step with his base.

The question on immigration was worded in a neutral fashion. It asked the priority preference for “addressing” the system. It was the top priority for Trump supporters (85%), but of less interest for Clinton supporters (44%), which was possibly a reflection of the difference in preferred solutions; i.e., “wall and deportation” vs. “path to citizenship.” Trump supporters expect and want something done whereas Clinton supporters rate it a lesser priority and are concerned as to what that solution will be.

The University of Denver/Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research survey was conducted by live interview telephone calls with 550 likely Colorado voters. The survey was in field from October 29-31, 2016 by Floyd Ciruli, Director of the Crossley Center. The sample was selected by random probability design from a list of registered voters from the Colorado Secretary of State and included 258 landlines and 286 cell phone respondents. The data was weighted based on likely voter statistics for age and ethnicity. Overall, the survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger.

Turmoil is Not Good for Bond Initiatives

Jefferson County’s educational establishment was surprised and dismayed at the loss of its hefty school bond and revenue initiatives when numerous neighboring districts approved approximately $4 billion in new revenue in the November election.

They needn’t look much farther than the coup d’état that removed three board members last fall and shifted the board control to the teachers union and their community allies.

Children will suffer from the school district’s failure to sell their proposal, but so will the teachers who would have benefited from the mill levy override, and maybe that’s what some taxpayers thought a just result.

Democrats' Challenge With White Working Class

One of the big stories of the 2016 election is the Democrats’ loss of the white working class in the rust belt that has voted for Democratic presidential candidates for two decades or more. Donald Trump won close races with the white working class support in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. He won bigger majorities in Ohio and Iowa.

Colorado is not a working class state, and Trump lost the state by a narrow margin. But, he did well with white voters without a four-year college education. Nationally, he carried 67 percent of non-college educated whites and won degree holding whites by 4 points. In Colorado, he carried non-degree holding whites by 58 percent to Hillary Clinton’s 34 percent. But, she carried college degree holders by 14 points. The national and Colorado differences help explain his Colorado loss.

Pueblo may be Colorado’s largest blue collar working class county, with both an Anglo and Hispanic population. As of November 17, Trump is neck-to-neck with Clinton.

As the Denver Post reported:

“This goes directly to the Democratic Party’s problem and Hillary Clinton’s problem,” said Floyd Ciruli, a prominent Colorado political consultant.  “They are losing the white working class and Pueblo is the cutting edge of it.” (John Frank, Denver Post 11-12-16)