Trump Finally Spends in Colorado

Colorado is one of nine states to share in Donald Trump’s latest television ad buy in spite of the fact it remains one of the least likely for Trump to win. Both Politico and RealClearPolitics place Colorado 11 points out for Trump. The only other state he’s spending money in that may be more difficult for him to win at this point is Virginia, which is 11 points out in Politico’s battleground list and 13 points in RealClearPolitics.

In a KOA Radio interview with Mike Rice, the following was mentioned:

• Trump finally has a professional campaign team spending money in targeted states. He was surviving on and losing with just tweets and travel.
• To get to 270 electoral votes, he must win some small states, like Nevada, Colorado and Iowa, to accompany bigger must-wins in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
• Colorado now leans Democratic, but it still has an independent reputation. For example, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, has 16 percent in a recent poll, and Trump would like a piece of that.
• His recent outreach to minorities is an effort to communicate to moderate suburban women – a key voting bloc in Colorado – that he’s not an extremist. He’d also like to undermine Hillary Clinton’s solid bloc of minority voters.

See:
AP story: Trump plans major ad buy in battleground states, including Colorado
NBC News: Pence carves familiar path across swing states for Trump

Colorado Supports Implementation of State Water Plan

The State Legislature Interim Water Resources Review Committee meeting in Steamboat Springs heard the results of a new poll sponsored by the Colorado Water Congress and the Colorado Water Conservation Board that Coloradans support many of the key elements of the state water plan, including investing money in conservation, reuse and storage.

The hearing was convened by Chairman Representative Ed Vigil and Vice-Chair Senator Ellen Roberts.

The results of this survey were compared to a survey conducted in 2013 for the Colorado Water Congress, which focused on the Public Trust initiative. The goals in 2016 are more proactive and identify those factors important to the public to help implement the state plan.

In reporting the survey, it was pointed out that opinion has shifted from drought and water shortages in 2013 to water quality in 2016.

Only about 19 percent of the public had heard much about the state water plan, but 40 percent believe the state should have a planning role and the plan was rated as favorable by most of the 47 percent of the public that could rate it (72% “very” and “somewhat” favorable). When asked to agree or disagree with statements related to the water plan and implementation, the public believed claiming Colorado’s rightful share of water and protecting irrigated agriculture were essential principles. They also supported:

• Expedited permitting
• Strong conservation
• Reuse of water
• New storage facilities

Voters also claimed to be willing to consider a tax increase to consider funding a package of water infrastructure improvements.

The survey was conducted by Ciruli Associates from August 7 to 16, 2016 with 712 voters. The margin of error was ±3.7 percentage points. The survey was conducted by live interviews on telephone. Forty-nine percent of interviews were conducted on cell phones.

Denver Press Club Starts a Podcast

John Ensslin, long-time Denver Press Club member, has launched a club podcast on the club, its history, and the state’s long, sometimes wild, journalistic traditions and personalities.

Bruce Goldberg
Photo: Denver Business Journal

In the first podcast, long-time club president, Bruce Goldberg, provides some club history and I talk about 35 years as a media commentator and pollster. Listen in here.

A comment on the changes in polling and news during my career:

Much of what has happened over the 35 years has surprised me. One never knows the direction fate will take you. Outside forces are powerful. I began with the Rocky Mountain News and it lost out in the newspaper wars. But I’ve been with 9KUSA since the 1980s and they have been the Denver area TV news leaders the entire time and are strong today.

Floyd Ciruli
Photo by Evan Semón

Colorado has been a rich environment for commenting about politics and public policy with a host of interesting leaders and issues to track. In the most recent decade, Colorado has been a swing presidential state, and that has made us a center of national attention.

Colorado has increased in population by more than 60 percent since I began my career in the 1980s. That growth contributed to the state’s shift from very conservative politics in much of the 1990s to a more progressive era in the new century. Hopefully my polling and analysis have contributed to the public understanding of the transition and its causes.

And polling has changed substantially over the period. Today it is more ubiquitous, complicated and controversial. More than half of many surveys are conducted on cell phones. But I believe it still provides an accurate measure of public opinion which can help inform our public dialogue. It also allows officials to make better choices and accomplish their goals.

I am working on interesting projects today in an exciting political moment for the country. The blend of media, public opinion and public policy that is combined in my firm has been exciting and very productive.

Single-Payer in Trouble, But Many Voters Undecided

A new Ciruli Associates statewide poll tested the single-payer health care proposal and the so-called Raise the Bar initiative. Upwards of a third of voters are unfamiliar with and uncertain on how they will vote on the two initiatives as the election season approaches Labor Day.

The ColoradoCare initiative is losing 30 percent to 45 percent, with a quarter of voters (24%) undecided on how they will vote. This result is similar to a Ciruli Associates poll in June in the Denver metro area (56% of the state’s voters). Proponents have made no progress and, in fact, Democratic Party support essential for them to have any chance has fragmented in recent weeks.

The Raise the Bar initiative to change the way the state constitution is amended is mostly unknown to voters, with a third (33%) stating they don’t know how they will vote. Among 67 percent who have a view, the proposal is winning by 9 percentage points (38% favor vs. 29% against).

Although the anti-fracking initiatives failed to make the ballot, a test of the mandatory setback language indicates that voters were willing to pass it on a first reading. The failure to gather sufficient signatures reflects the diminished local passion and lack of out-of-state money that might of helped pay for professional signature gatherers. Needless to say, if it had made the ballot, there would have been a powerful campaign in opposition.

There will be seven initiatives from voters on the ballot and two housekeeping-type amendments from the legislature.

The survey was conducted from August 7 to 16, 2016, with 712 Colorado voters by Ciruli Associates. It has a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points.

See The Buzz: Single-Payer Losing in Denver Metro Area

Colorado Loses its Best Water Reporter

Chris Woodka

Photo: Pueblo Chieftain

Chris Woodka, the Pueblo Chieftain premiere water reporter, will retire soon and join the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District. Thanks to Chris for years of detailed coverage of water news, projects and policy. Thanks also to Bob Rawlings and his Pueblo Chieftain for their commitment to coverage of water and support for Chris Woodka’s career.

Four Highlights From Colorado Polls on Presidency

The big news on the presidential race in Colorado is that the state is no longer considered a battleground (The Buzz, July 22, 2016). And, indeed, Hillary Clinton is so far ahead she has withdrawn a television buy and is depending on her ground game (which is extensive as Donald Trump’s is miniscule). It is unlikely Clinton will reenter the state’s media market unless the race tightens substantially nationally, and then Colorado could come back into play.

Examining the latest Colorado poll’s internal data highlights four trends:

1. Colorado Youth Vote Looks for Alternatives. Millennial voters in general are more likely than any other age group to be considering Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, the two independent candidates on the ballot. Johnson beats Trump in the latest Colorado Quinnipiac poll 29 percent to 18 percent among Millennials. Together, Stein and Johnson receive 46 percent of the Millennial vote. Clinton only gets 34 percent. This is more than national polls, which show them together receiving 28 percent of the Millennial vote. Johnson and Stein are still mostly spoilers and not contenders. Even when Ross Perot received 19 percent of the national vote and 23 percent in Colorado, he failed to carry a single electoral vote.
2. Educated Voters Go Democratic. No Democratic nominee has carried educated White voters (four-year degrees) in the modern history of polling (since 1952). Clinton leads Trump by 7 points among them nationally. In Colorado, she is leading Trump by 29 points among educated White voters in the Quinnipiac survey and 32 percent in the earlier NBC/WSJ/Marist survey. Colorado is the second most educated state in the country after Massachusetts. Compounding Trump’s problem is that educated White voters are more likely to turn out. Usually that means the Republican candidates can expect a little bump in late polls and on Election Day. But, if these numbers don’t shift, Clinton will get the final push from the most dependable voters.
3. Republicans are Resisting Trump. For all of Clinton’s problems with the youth vote, she has consolidated the Democratic vote, getting 93 percent of it. Trump continues to lag with only 86 percent of his vote. In Colorado, about a quarter of the vote is unaffiliated. Given both parties are closely divided, winning the unaffiliated vote becomes extra important. The latest Quinnipiac survey shows Trump losing the self-described independent voters by 13 points (46% Clinton vs. 33% Trump).
4. The Gender Gap is Net Clinton Win. In 2014, Republican Cory Gardner won the gender gap by 4 points. He lost women to Mark Udall, but won men by more. Trump is losing the gender gap in Colorado by 21 points. He’s even losing the White gender gap (by 12 points), which is doom in races where more than a quarter of the electorate is non-White, and Clinton has more than 30 points of advantage.

Millennials are Avoiding the Parties and Their Candidates

Millennial voters (aged 18 to 34) are identifying with independent political status and are giving near majorities of their votes to independent presidential candidates.

In a statewide Ciruli Associates poll, 38 percent of Millennials identify themselves as independent more than any other age group and nearly equal to the number who claim to be “strong Democrat” (29%) and “not so strong Democrat” (11%).

The latest Quinnipiac Colorado survey shows 46 percent of Millennials support independent candidates Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton together attract 52 percent.

The Colorado results for minor party candidates among Millennials were larger than what was nationally reported as the Millennials’ preferences (46% in Colorado to 28% nationally) in the latest Pew Research poll where Clinton was ahead of Trump by 4 points. (Different cut-off point in age explains some of the difference, but not all.)

In general, Johnson voters are younger, White and more independents. He tends to attract more Republicans than Democrats.

Nate Silver’s analysis of a half dozen recent polls of Millennials show Johnson getting 17 percent or nearly double his current average of 9 percent from all voters.