Value Proposition: Is College Worth it?

Colleges and universities around the country are concerned about the changing demographics of students, the cost and financing of school, and the disruption of technology, especially online education. But the most serious challenge may be the declining value students put on college education.

A new Gallup poll conducted with Purdue University surveyed 30,000 college graduates and found that barely half (50%) “strongly agree” their higher education was worth the cost. Among recent graduates (alums from 2015 to 2006), only 38 percent “strongly agree” their education was worth it.

Fifty-two percent of all graduates in public schools “strongly agreed” the education was worth the expense, 47 percent of private school graduates and just 26 percent of for-profit college graduates.

Nearly 10 percent of recent graduates were unemployed and nearly half were underemployed. About two-thirds of student graduates with an average of $30,000 worth of debt and only 33 percent of alumni with that level of student debt thought their education was worth it.  Delaying buying a house, getting married, having children or starting a business are related to high student debt.

See:
The Washington Post: Is college worth the cost? Many recent graduates don’t think so.
Fortune: Is college worth it? This is what recent grads are saying.

School Politics in 2015

K-12 school politics in Colorado is largely a fight between the teachers union and right and left reform interests, each of whom have a different set of allies, but some similarity in goals. The conservatives that control the Douglas and Jefferson school boards pursue charter schools as do the liberals who control the Denver schools. And both suburban and urban reformers are opposed by the unions. But, there are stark differences.

Denver’s reformers don’t directly confront the union’s right to bargain, don’t meddle with social science or humanities curriculum and don’t advocate for vouchers. But in Douglas County, conservatives have decertified the union and institute voucher program, although it’s currently in a court challenge. Conservatives in Jefferson County have opened up union negotiations to the public, added teacher evaluations to pay, and tried to advise on history curriculum. The union and progressive activists have not been able to defeat the Douglas County Board except in court, but they have successfully mounted a recall against the three-person Jefferson County conservative majority that will be voted on in November.

In general, Colorado teachers union has been on the political defense from the right and the left for more than a decade. They are still formable, but in the Denver metro area, they have lost significant ground.

The Government Shutdown is a Loser: Wise to End It

Both Mitch McConnell and John Boehner knew a government shutdown over Obamacare was a political loser in 2013, but House Republicans and a handful of senate advocates managed to force a partial shutdown of the government starting October 1.

Senator Ted Cruz, who had mounted a 21-hour filibuster in late September, was adamant and frenzied at the start. But the media coverage featured daily laments of seniors and veterans turned away from the Washington monuments and national parks being closed. The collapse of the Republican hardliners came on October 10 when a Wall Street Journal poll showed what most observers and certainly the entire Washington establishment believed – the public was rejecting the strategy in droves. They did not like the shutdown, they did not approve it as a strategy to defund Obamacare and they blamed the Republicans for it, not the President or Democrats.

And the signs were not good for Mr. Cruz and his House allies this time either. A new Pew Research poll shows, in spite of the controversy surrounding the Planned Parenthood videos, the organization maintains considerable popularity. Sixty percent of Americans want funding continued, and if the government shuts down, blame will accrue to Republicans by nearly two-to-one (40% Republicans vs. 26% Democrats) (new poll Sept. 27, 1,505 adults).

The dilemma for Hill Republicans is that their partisan constituents are strongly against Planned Parenthood funding (66% against funding), but they lose the public in general because even more Democrats favor funding (83% favor funding) and Planned Parenthood funding is winning independents by nearly two-thirds (64% of independents).

Also, this poll shows Republicans are internally divided with conservative Republicans – 78 percent against funding – but among moderate to liberal Republicans, only 39 percent are in favor of eliminating funding.

As the two polls made clear, this shutdown scenario looks much like October 2013. Pew Research, joined by a new CBS News/New York Times poll, show nearly the same percentage of Americans who were more likely to blame Republicans in 2013 will be blaming Republicans today. Leadership and rank and file were smart to end shutdown strategy.

Boehner Accelerates Retirement, But Had a Good Run

John Boehner

Speaker of the House John Boehner decided to speed up his retirement in the face of growing chaos in the House Republican caucus, but he will still have served longer than Nancy Pelosi (18th longest serving) and Newt Gingrich (19th longest serving) and be the 12th longest serving speaker out of fifty-two. Boehner nearly made it five years (1,756 days as of the end of October and his retirement) compared to Pelosi, 1,457 days or just under four years.

The longest serving speakers were in the post WWII era as Democrats maintained a near monopoly on control of the House.

1. Sam Rayburn, D, more than 17 years
2. Tip O’Neill, D, nearly 10 years
3. John McCormack, D, nearly 9 years
4. Dennis Hastert, R, nearly 8 years
7. Carl Albert, D, nearly 6 years
9. Tom Foley, D, more than 5 and a half years

In the current anti-Washington political environment, Boehner may keep the record, even if the Republicans hold the House majority for a decade or more.

Boehner is only the latest casualty of the Tea Party disruption that was first visible in the 2010 U.S. Senate primary when long-term Utah Senator Bob Bennett was beaten, Indiana’s Senator Richard Lugar was defeated in 2012 and the primary lose in 2014 of U.S. Representative Eric Cantor. It was Cantor’s loss that kept Boehner on the job for another term.

And, of course, frontrunner Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina highlight the current lack of affection for the Republican establishment in the presidential race.

The longstanding disapproval of Washington, which was featured in The Buzz on September 1 (Why an Outsider May be President), was confirmed by the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which reported 72 percent of Republican primary voters were dissatisfied with John Boehner’s and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s ability to accomplish GOP goals.  Thirty-six percent said they wanted them removed from power. Talk show listeners, Tea Party supporters and Trump supports were the most in favor of immediate removal.

It is unlikely this internal war is going away very soon. The next speaker will face the same challenges of how to reconcile the view that winning the presidency and holding the senate requires showing the ability to govern versus the view that standing on principles regardless of the consequences; i.e., shutdowns, is the way to govern and win elections.

See:
NBC News: Poll: 72% of GOP voters dissatisfied with Boehner, McConnell
New York Times: Boehner’s exit, the role of red states and the outlook for 2016
FiveThirtyEight: John Boehner had a good run

Colorado Senate Race Serves as Iran Test Case

A shadowy group opposed to the Iranian agreement and Senator Michael Bennet’s decision to

Photo: Lauren Washington/Oberlin College

support it has launched an over-the-top television advertisement using the fear of nuclear conflagration as its visual theme. The TV buy is miniscule. The group mainly wants to start an online and free media buzz about the topic, Bennet and their motivations. They are likely to accomplish their goal.

There are a number of possible factors motivating the funders of this activity:

• Keep Colorado’s senate race in the news. Republicans need Colorado to be vulnerable and potentially a pick-up if they are to hold the U.S. Senate.
• Encourage a high-quality senate candidate into the race. George Brauchler is the top target, but there are other possibilities.
• See if the issue can rough up Bennet’s re-election numbers and approval rating.
• Use as a test case for possible application in other states with vulnerable Democrats.

The ad is a low tech knock-off of the 1964 “Daisy” ad that Lyndon B. Johnson used against Barry Goldwater to reinforce with nuclear drama the Democrats’ effort to paint Goldwater as trigger-happy in the midst of the Cold War and post the Cuban Missile Crises era. Ironically, it was Johnson who got the country into the Vietnam War.

The Iran nuclear agreement is likely to be one of the major issues in 2016 because foreign policy has a Republican advantage and they intend on highlighting it. The issue was a close call for Bennet (he decided late) and remains controversial with at least half the public. Although it’s not clear it will be salient in twelve months from now, it will be on the list.

See 9News: Truth Test: Going nuclear on Sen.Bennet

Debates Matter: Fiorina Wins, Trump Stumbles

The new polls – CNN/ORC (telephone) and NBC (online SurveyMonkey) – show most Republican viewers (23 million in total) agree with the pundits: Carly Fiorina won the debate and Donald Trump was mostly on the defense. The timing and format of this debate was designed to be a problem for the high-profile frontrunner. The question format wanted to encourage critical crosstalk between the field and Trump. And indeed, he received most of the barbs.

It was also destined to be less short answers and more long policy positions. Trump is generally good at the quick retort and glib critical observations. But he’s thin on policy and credible evidence to support his often bold and sometimes bizarre statements offered as fact.

Outsiders still dominate the party’s preference, but the order is changing, with Fiorina jumping from eighth to second since the debate. She is now in second in the CNN poll and judged the overwhelming winner of the debate in both polls.

Photo: Right Speak

In a nomination race thus far dominated by polls and debates, performance counts. Fiorina and Marco Rubio had the best CNN performance and have been rewarded in the early polls.

Donald Trump remains the frontrunner, former frontrunner Jeb Bush treads water at 9 percent, and former top candidate Scott Walker, after two weak performances and collapsing polls, is gone.

See:
CNN: Poll: Fiorina rockets to No. 2 behind Trump in GOP
NBC News: Carly Fiorina won GOP debate, but Trump still leads: NBC online survey
9News: Republican field targets Donald Trump at second debate

Chuck Hagel – Nice Guy, Wrong Fit

Chuck Hagel was this year’s Korbel School Dinner speaker and winner of the DU Global Security Award.

With Dean Chris Hill asking the questions (very few in that Hagel has a filibuster answer style), Hagel showed his Nebraska common sense and cautious approach toward foreign and defense policy

Chuck Hagel (top) and
 Dean Chris Hill (bottom)

. The Vietnam War was his touchstone and, although as a Midwestern Republican senator he backed the Iraq War in 2003, he quickly soured of it. Hagel became one of the Bush administration’s most vocal critics, opposing the surge and often citing his independent line: “I didn’t take an oath of office to my party or my president.”

His political evolution led him to become President Obama’s defense secretary in 2013 in about the worst possible moment for the administration and especially for a secretary that shared Obama’s emphasis on withdrawal and restraint. After his 2012 re-election, Obama slid into a rapid political decline, running through the November 2013 collapse of the Obamacare website and his approval rating (dropped to 40%), culminating in Democrats losing the Senate in November 2014.

Hagel had a historically difficult confirmation with a filibuster and polarized vote. But, the real challenge began his first day on the job. The sequester hugely reduced the military budget and he had to make the cuts.

Events in Hagel’s Tenure

• Sequester, March 2013 – One option he reported: reduce carrier group from 11 to 8.
• Tour of Asia, May 2013 – Said: Decline of U.S. military power “good thing.” Allies must step up. Dealing with doubt of allies.
• Syria red line, August 2013 – Said: Ready to launch strike. President abruptly calls it off.
• Russia Crimea, February 2014 – Assured by Russian Defense Minister Russian Army would not invade.
• ISIL/ISIS, September 2014 – Supported start of bombing again.
• Announcement – Would be resigning November 2014.

He faced the Syria red line, Russia in the Crimea and the rise of ISIS. Hagel was not the person to cajole Europe to support NATO nor was he interested in reintroducing war fighting capacity into Iraq. Even he knew he was the wrong fit for the moment.