Colorado Senate Race Moves Up in Competition

Colorado has been moved up two spots in the latest National Journal ranking of sixteen competitive U.S. Senate races. The Journal predicts a 5- to 10-seat win for Republicans. They need six to take control of the Senate. The Udall vs. Gardner race is now listed 9^th, up from 11^th, largely based on the equal flow of advertising dollars, recent polls and the fracking debate. The Republican primary just helped Cory Gardner by handing off the gubernatorial nomination to establishment representative, Bob Beauprez, with a reasonably unified party.

Democrats are not certain to lose six seats however. Early polling from Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, for example, show endangered Democrats more than holding their positions.

Although races can still be decided in the last few weeks (Bennet pulling out a 2010 late win over Buck), high-profile senate races are increasingly decided before Labor Day. If a challenger is viable on Labor Day (i.e., a net positive favorability rating), the incumbent is in serious trouble, which is why there is so much early negative advertising.

 

 

Republican Primary Picks Nominees

The top ten Republican voting counties split between Bob Beauprez, the eventual winner, by 13,000 over Tom Tancredo, who did well in Denver and its suburbs.

There were 382,000 votes for the governor nominees and 399,000 total for all offices.

Click here for Secretary of State report, 6-25-14

Also see The Buzz: Republican primary final days

Sleepy Race, But Most Electable Team

As we predicted last Friday, Republican turnout in the governor’s race was unlikely to reach 400,000 voters (which was the 2010 turnout).

Bob Beauprez

The total Republican vote, all races, all candidates: 398,620.



Bob Beauprez won an impressive 30 percent of the vote competing against two other candidates for the “anybody but Tancredo” vote.

Beauprez must now rapidly find money for television, unite the party and watch his next few weeks of comments – official and off-the-cuff – because media and Democrats will be trolling for the faux pas that can make it into advertisements and, most importantly, will demonstrate to the independent expenditure committees (without talking to them) that this race is or is not worth investing in. The money players are all in for the Senate race, but the governorship will take some convincing that this is not Beauprez’s 2006 race.

See:

The Buzz: Republican primary final days
Secretary of State Report 6-25-14

Democratic Party Begins to Unravel

Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s demise has generated a host of “the Republican Party is hopelessly divided” commentaries and analyses. And clearly, the party has its challenges. Although, as the forecasts for the 2014 election add district- and state-level polling to voting history and the national polls, the House clearly appears to be safely to remain in Republican hands and most Senate handicappers continue to predict a 4 to 8 seat Republican pick up, making control very possible.
 
But what the steady stream of stories that Republicans are doomed miss is that there are signs that Democrats are about to begin their own crisis of confidence and unity.

• A national party controlling the White House sinks or swims with the President and the administration is taking water. When public confidence recedes like the tide, candidates begin to abandon ship. Differences in interests and viewpoints tend to become more visible and more likely to be fought over.
• Colorado as a bellwether state is demonstrating many of the fractures that will frame the 2014 election and gain higher national profile as the 2016 presidential campaign begins. The party’s environmental wing is fighting openly with the party establishment over the role of the oil and gas industry. In Colorado, fracking is the cutting edge issue and its contribution to global warming vs. the economy. The differences may make the November ballot and harm the Democratic ticket.
• Liberal education reformers, leaders in the minority community, the progressive business community and many members of the party establishment are at loggerheads with organized labor over changes in education policy. The fight divides Democrats from legislatures to the school districts.
• The administration and Democratic congressional leadership have called for local Democrats to embrace the Affordable Care Act. In states like Colorado that is a non-starter for Democrats like Mark Udall and Andrew Romanoff, who are in competitive races. The latest national polls affirm Obamacare is a drag on Democratic candidates and could get worse if health care prices start to climb.
• As the gun control recall of Colorado Democratic state legislators last fall demonstrated, the party has problems with its blue collar and more socially conservative voters. The party’s new coalition of the rich, well-educated and very poor has left out much of its traditional working class and old ethnic voter base. And, the new party elites are socially liberal, brightly green, and hostile to many traditional Democratic Party policies and union-type perks.

These stress points are already visible in Colorado, and as President Obama continues to recede as a unifying figure, they will soon be visible nationally.

Hillary Clinton Moves From Celebrity to Politician – It’s Painful

Hillary Clinton has said she will decide to run or not for president at the end of the year. The rollout
of the book will give her six months to remember what presidential hardball politics is like.

Clinton’s last experience of day in and day out political battle was in the 2008 primaries with Barack Obama. She lost and it was brutal. But, four years as Secretary of State provided a more neutral space and high favorability. She gained celebrity status without the partisan’s edge.

But, the seeming inevitability of her run and the campaign quality of the book tour remind people of the partisan Hillary. Her favorability rating is starting to slide as Democrats continue to rate her in the ‘90s, but the Republican rating drops in half (41% from mid-2012 to 21%) and independent voters put on a more cynical lens (65% to 49%).

She must also contend with a president whose favorability has declined from 58 percent in late 2012 to 47 percent today, respond to nearly daily foreign and domestic crises, and get through a midterm November election that could damage the Democratic brand and leave the party in disarray.

It will provide a stiff challenge to successfully maneuver and a lot for her to think about between now and yearend.

See:

Gallup: Americans’ ratings of President Obama’s image at new lows

Gallup: Smaller majority of Americans view Hillary Clinton favorably
The Buzz: The Clinton Challenge

Gates and Geithner Agree. Washington Politics at Crisis Level.

Two of the most engaged and critical participants in U.S. military and economic policy in the last decade agree Washington is broken and its dysfunction is contributing to our national drift and weakness.

Robert Gates (L) and Tim Geithner (R)

Robert Gates in recent speeches and his book was angry when he discussed the politics of Washington and its effect on national defense.

“I was constantly amazed and infuriated at the hypocrisy of those who most stridently attacked the Defense Department for being inefficient and wasteful but would fight tooth and nail to prevent any reduction in defense activities in their home state or district no matter how inefficient or wasteful.” Moreover, “I was exceptionally offended by the constant adversarial, inquisition-like treatment of executive branch officials by too many members of Congress across the political spectrum—a kangaroo-court environment in hearings, especially when the press and television cameras were present.” (New Republic, 2-25-14)

In a Wall Street Journal interview, Tim Geithner believes the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 could have been worse if some luck hadn’t prevailed to derail the politics of Washington, which he described at its worst as:

“…those who were never willing to put politics aside and focus on the pragmatic imperative, or were trying to force us to default on our obligations as a way to shrink the safety net, or were blocking for transparently political reasons things that had long periods of bipartisan support that would have made the economy stronger.”

It is not surprising that trust in government is at a 20-year low (Gallup, 19%, Sept. 2013) and approval of Congress is near single digits (13%, Real Clear Politics, June 2014; 7%, Gallup, June 2014).

See:

Wall Street Journal: The wars of Robert Gates
New Republic: Why is Robert Gates angry?
Wall Street Journal: Timothy Geithner: After the financialcrisis

Republican Primary Final Days

Unless there is a late flurry of voting to match the late step-up in media advertising, projections of about 400,000 Republican primary voters may be high as only 240,000 ballots have been turned in by Thursday.

In the final days of news watching (print and online), Tom Tancredo is on the defense over drugs. Scott Gessler has disappeared and Mike Kopp, due to Bill Armstrong, appears to have some momentum. Bob Beauprez is holding his position. Going into the final stretch, it still appears to be a race between Beauprez and Tancredo.

Colorado’s ten largest counties will produce the bulk of the vote for the Republican governor nominee (Mesa will slip ahead of Pueblo). They represent 75 percent of the Republican vote, with El Paso, Jefferson and Arapahoe counties accounting for half of it.

 

Click here for Secretary of State report