Obama Takes Down the Democratic Ticket

Barack Obama won Colorado’s electoral vote twice, most recently by five points, but today his dismal approval rating and failed health care rollout is taking down the entire Democratic ticket. Senator Mark Udall and Governor John Hickenlooper are both at low points in their career approval ratings as they begin their re-election campaigns.

But, Obama’s 15 point negative approval is even dragging down the Democrats’ presumptive presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton. In a hypothetical match-up with Governor Chris Christie, she now loses Colorado by 6 points, her lowest point this year.

Two takeaways from the latest polls: First, the Washington D.C. contest to produce the worst policy in the American peoples’ view has pushed voters to the edge. If they had a choice of “none of the above,” it would do very well.

Second, there is no doubt that, as of today, Colorado is a battleground state.

See Quinnipiac poll: Christie leads Clinton in Colorado in 2016 race

Voters Don’t Like Recalls, But Many Like the Results

In the extraordinary Colorado politics of 2013, two Democratic state legislators, including the State Senate President, were recalled by angry voters. But when voters statewide are asked if they approve of recalling a person for political disagreements, voters stated they prefer to defeat the person in a regular election (36% favor recall and 57% wait for re-election).

However, in a recent Denver metro poll, voters were closely divided as to their support for the removal of the two state senators last September (39% favor, 35% oppose, 26% no opinion/don’t know).

And when statewide voters in the same Quinnipiac survey were asked if another Democratic legislator, Evie Hudak, should be recalled, 38 percent said yes and 49 percent no. But among the 38 percent who said recall, 60 percent of Republicans said yes, and if they are well-represented in her legislative district in a low turnout election, they can prevail.

Fracking Loses Cities, Wins the State

Fracking may have been banned by voters in five North Front Range Colorado cities (mostly moratoriums, one vote in a recount), but when voters statewide were asked if they support or oppose it, 51 percent said support and 34 percent oppose in a new poll by Quinnipiac University (1,206 voters, Nov. 2013).

Republicans overwhelming support it; Democrats oppose, but only two-to-one; and independents are near the statewide percentage.

This poll offers good news for Governor Hickenlooper. His is anxious to reach a compromise on fracking rules and regulations to remove it as an issue next year. Its lack of support will help him by encouraging environmentalists to compromise since they lack a statewide majority.

As reported in 9 News: 

Ciruli thinks the governor genuinely thinks more regulation is the best policy, but there are politics behind this announcement that can't be ignored.

Oil and gas has been making a splash as a political issue in the state, with voters passing four local-level ballot questions aimed at banning or delaying approval of new drilling operations.

The governor doesn't want this to be a statewide issue when he's up for re-election next year.

“Nothing would be more difficult for him to be a fracking advocate at the same time that many citizens and certainly the environmental movement were actively backing a ban,” Ciruli said.

See:
9News: Politics meets policy in Hickenlooper’s air pollution proposal

The Buzz: Hickenlooper and the energy divide

The Buzz: The I-25 Corridor and Tuesday’s election

Kopp May Be Strongest Opponent to Hickenlooper

The latest Quinnipiac poll confirms that John Hickenlooper has only a modest advantage against the Republican field in his re-election, and former State Senator Mike Kopp may be the strongest opponent.

Kopp had the narrowest point spread and holds Hickenlooper to 44 percent.

Kopp’s strength is that he only loses 5 percent of Republicans. Tancredo loses 11 percent of Republicans, and Gessler and Brophy lose 7 percent each.

Kopp was the newest addition to the field and has low name identification. In his announcement and early debates, he avoided attacking, and although he’s as conservative as his fellow Republicans, he left a bit of room to maneuver.

The key to the race is for a Republican to motivate his base, but not alienate moderate Republicans and unaffiliated voters.

Denver Metro Economy Slows

The Denver metro economy is increasing at half the pace of last year. As of September, retail sales, as measured by sales tax collections, have increased 3.3 percent over September 2012. Retail sales grew 8.8 percent in 2012.

A recent business study confirms the slower growth when it reported that the region’s “gross domestic product” (value of all goods and services produced) was down to 2 percent this year from 2.5 percent last year.

The stock market, of course, has ignored the economy and boomed. It broke an intraday high of 16,000 this week, and is up 22 percent since January.

Hickenlooper Still Vulnerable

After Governor Hickenlooper received favorable media coverage from his activism during the state’s response to the recent floods in the North Front Range, it was assumed his approval rating might recover from a steep decline measured last summer. But, he’s still below 50 percent, about 14 points below his approval rating taken by the same polling firm in fall 2012.

Any positive media coverage from the floods may have been countered by the crushing loss he suffered in the defeat of the billion-dollar tax increase, Amendment 66, this November.

If 2014 is a bad Democratic year based on President Obama’s sinking approval, Hickenlooper will be in an even more difficult position than he was in 2010. Although it was a bad Democratic year, Hickenlooper had a high favorability, few controversies and a totally fractured Republican Party.

See:
The Buzz: A vulnerable governor
The Buzz: Hickenlooper looking for a bigger win
The Buzz: Hickenlooper’s approval drops 15 points since last fall
Quinnipiac poll: Colorado gov has early lead in reelect bid

Colorado Ready for Third Party?

With more than a third of its voters unaffiliated with a political party, Colorado has been more hospitable to third party candidates than most states.

Ross Perot

Ross Perot gained 23 percent of the vote in Colorado in 1992, above his national average of 19 percent and tossing the state to Democrat Bill Clinton (Clinton 40%, G.H.W. Bush 36%). He was mostly positioned on the right as a populist, highlighting the federal deficit.

John Anderson, a moderate progressive Republican, contrasted with Ronald Reagan in 1980 and gained 11 percent in Colorado, well-above his national average of 6.6 percent. It was his sixth best state, but Reagan won Colorado and the presidency.

Theodore Roosevelt, who came in second in the 1912 election ahead of President Taft, won 27 percent of Colorado’s vote and 17 percent nationally. He was the most successful third party candidate in the nation’s history.

Theodore Roosevelt

Colorado’s electoral votes (3) were actually captured once by a third party populist. In 1892, James Weaver received 57 percent of the popular vote (the winner Grover Cleveland wasn’t on the Colorado ballot) and 22 electoral votes (he also carried Idaho, Kansas, Nevada and North Dakota).

Governor Dick Lamm, who was never comfortable in the Democratic Party (fiscally conservative and socially conservative on a few issues, but an environmentalist committed to limited growth and abortion rights). Although he remained a Democrat in his three terms as governor, in 1996 he ran for the nomination of Reform Party. Ross Perot decided to run again and eliminated Lamm.

Most recently, Tom Tancredo ran on the American Constitution Party label and received 36 percent of the vote for governor in 2010.

Could a third party candidate in either Colorado or nationally become viable in the current polarized and gridlocked political environment?