Pelosi Wants Obamacare Fixed

The Democrats are on a roll post the shutdown and want to translate it into taking back the House.

This, of course, is what Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi lives for. But, the strategy is endangered by the poor performance of the Affordable Care Act rollout. Hence, Pelosi shouted out on Friday that the “computer must be fixed.” It’s a problem.

• Obamacare has been a long-term controversy for Democrats, and the failed rollout reinforces its poor image.
• It is mostly Pelosi and her House majority in 2009 and 2010 that crafted, passed and, in recent years, protected it.
• The problem plagued rollout aligns with Republicans’ argument the law is a disaster. They will use it extensively in the 2014 election.
• Pelosi has a chance, if not yet seen as likely, to pick up the 17 seats needed to give Democrats back the House. Their chances greatly improved the last two weeks, but months of Obamacare bad press could replace the negative news of the shutdown.

Ms. Sebelius may not be pushed out, but she is definitely not seeing her home much.

Third Party?

Organizing a third party is extremely difficult, but support for it has never been higher. Gallup reports that opinion has moved from an already high 55 percent of the public that believed a third party is necessary in 2012 to 60 percent in today’s gridlock and shutdown.

A third party can be organized à la Ross Perot and Ralph Nader, but requires:

• A nationwide effort to become legally qualified at the state level
• More than a billion dollars, the most recent expenditure level of a presidential campaign
• A charismatic personality to capture public attention

Expect to see America’s surfeit of billionaires begin to think about being in the White House as the occupant, not just a regular guest.

The Republican Field

The Republican field for governor now appears in place with the announcement of Mike Kopp.

Kopp, one of the most respected young Republicans in legislative leadership in recent years, will have a challenge breaking out of the crowded field. He will rapidly need to accumulate money and organization to take on previous gubernatorial candidate and former Congressman Tom Tancredo and Secretary of State Scott Gessler. Also in the race is State Senator Greg Brophy from Eastern Colorado.

Comments on the candidates: Tancredo, Gessler, Brophy and Kopp:

The Republican race is wide open. Governor Hickenlooper is vulnerable, but ready for the contest. Republicans will need a very solid candidate.

Not Another Recall

Recalls are now in the repertoire of issue activists as a method to punish legislators in swing districts who vote “wrong” on high-profile controversial legislation (Huffington Post).

The third recall effort since the end of the 2013 legislative session targets Westminster Democrat Evie Hudak. Her narrow 2012 re-election highlights her vulnerability to gun rights activists. If this recall is successful, the Democrats would lose their majority and Republicans would “get control in the middle of the session” (KFGO).

Republican Party leaders have already distanced themselves from the effort, knowing that the public and opinion leaders are firmly against the endless elections and use of the recall for political and policy objectives. They believe another four- or five- month recall effort will be a distraction to their effort to develop candidates and issues for the 2014 election (9 KUSA).

However, the activists are unlikely to be deterred. They are anti-establishment and not interested in the views of either political party. The successful recalls in Colorado Springs and Pueblo were mostly locally driven and inspired. The results sent a message.

As the Huffington Post reported:

“Conservatives are learning how to use social media. Both Pueblo and El Paso counties’ gun-rights activists initiated and organized online. Also, while recalls are expensive and difficult to mount, expect more in this highly polarized environment and Internet age,” said pollster and political analyst Floyd Ciruli in an editorial published on The Denver Post before Hudak’s second recall effort was announced.

But in Senate District 19, recallers have a major challenge in getting nearly 20,000 valid signatures, about twice what was necessary in the September recall elections.

See:
Denver Post: New recall effort targets state Sen. Evie Hudak
Huffington Post: Sen. Evie Hudak recall: Effort re-energized after successful recall of Morse, Giron over gun control laws
KFGO: Third Colorado lawmaker faces possible recall for gun control votes
9News: Recall effort resurrected against Senator Evie Hudak
Denver Post: Caldwell: Would Evie Hudak recall really be so bad for Colorado Dems?

Public Opinion is on the Move

Panic hit the Republican Party in Washington last Friday with the Wall Street Journal and NBC News publication of a poll showing that the shutdown not only was a failed strategy, but that public opinion was on the move.

Americans have disapproved Washington and its major governing institutions for several years, but in the last two weeks, disapproval shifted to pure disgust, and the Republicans were the main recipients of it.

As Professor James Stimson (University of North Carolina) wrote in his public opinion classic of 2004, The Tides of Consent: “It is the movement [of public opinion] that matters.”

His analysis of the 1995 shutdown is worth rereading because it describes many of the similar elements to the current crisis, except that most of the indicators are worse today. Republicans are receiving the bulk of the blame and people believe the problem is more serious (73% today compared to 57% in 1995).

The movement away from the Republican Party has been massive the last four weeks. Negative feelings shot up from 43 percent in September to 53 percent today, while President Obama’s numbers improved slightly – all very similar to 1995. Recall that Speaker Newt Gingrich and his Republicans declined in approval and President Clinton recovered from his poor numbers post the 1994 midterm disaster.  Even if early, bad omens for 2014.

The Metrics – WSJ/NBC Poll

The shutdown:

• Serious problem – 73%
• Hurts the economy – 65%
• Wrong direction for country – 78%
• Blame Republicans – 53%
• Negative feeling toward Republicans – 53%
• Replace very member of Congress – 60%

The Senate House is Burning

In 52 BCE, the Roman Senate House was burned by the urban mob after a riot. Rome’s politics was in gridlock and the mob ruled.

Cicero described it to his friend Atticus: “You should hurry back to Rome and see what remains of the good old Republic. You can see the bribes handed out…right in the open. … You can sniff out dictatorship in the air and enjoy the suspension of public business and the total anarchy.”

Respect for Washington government has collapsed in the gridlock and the shutdown crisis. The public is looking for alternatives:

• Vote incumbents out (60% WSJ/NBC poll, Oct. 11, 2013)
• Vote Republicans out (6% advantage Democrats , generic ballot test, Real Clear Politics, Oct. 15, 2013)
• Support third party (60% Gallup, Oct. 11, 2013)

Confidence in and support for Congress and the federal government has been at historic low levels for years. But, public opinion is now on the move and change is in the air.

In 49 BCE, just 3 years after the burning of the Senate House, Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon, “the die was cast” and the Roman Republic was in its last days.

As Expected, Democrats Stay Left

The ascension of Majority Leader Morgan Carroll to Senate President, replacing recalled Senator John Morse, gave the Democrat caucus an even more liberal cast. The new Majority Leader, Rollie Heath, who refers to himself as a businessperson, is mostly associated with one-billion plus dollars of tax increases as the author of Amendment 103 in 2010 and Amendment 66 this year.

In a Valerie Richardson article in the Colorado Observer (10-9-13):

“They’re two of the most liberal members of the legislature, which is not surprising, because I think the Democratic caucus is a very liberal caucus,” said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli. “Clearly you’re going to get more of the same if the leadership is any indication.”

“To do both Carroll and Heath—to not put in a Mary Hodge type to help moderate the caucus—is very deliberate and a choice that says they’re going to be on the path that they were on in the last session,” said Ciruli.

Analysts say the caucus vote also comes as an ill omen for Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper, who took a beating in the polls after signing off on much of the 2013 legislature’s aggressive agenda on energy, gun control and education.

“This says bad news for the governor in my view,” said Ciruli. “This sends a signal that, ‘We intend on being what we were.’ It means he needs to be more aggressive in defending his position.”

Also see:
Denver Post: Colorado Senate Democrats tap Morgan Carroll as next president
Denver Post: Carroll: Colorado Senate Democrats look to the left