Polarization Affects the Court

The current Supreme Court term is deciding a host of controversial cases at the moment the national trend of disapproval of government and polarized views appear to be affecting it.

Up until 2009, the Pew Poll reported the Court at 60 percent favorability or higher. Today, Pew registers it at 52 percent. It was in the low 50s all during 2012, with the health care case the highest profile and most partisan issue decided and the presidential race the main political context.

About half of Republicans (47%) are favorable towards the Court and 56 percent of Democrats.  It represents a 9-point increase for Republicans since the health care decision at the end of June 2012, but well below the 56 percent favorability prior to health care. Two-thirds of Democrats (64%) favored the Court last summer.

Most people believe the Court’s political philosophy is in the center of the road (40%), but liberal Democrats believe it is conservative (48%) and conservative Republicans believe it is liberal (45%). In fact, only 9 percent of conservative Republicans and only 15 percent of moderate to liberal Republicans believe the Court is conservative.

Although there are competing views from legal scholars, most believe the conservatives have dominated the modern court, especially due to swing votes usually breaking to the right of center.

See:
Washington Post: The Supreme Court’s rightward shift – or not (in two charts)

Pew Research Center: Supreme Court’s favorable rating still at historic low

Fracking Protests Heat Up

Guns, Hispanic student tuition and gay rights may just be a warm-up for the battle about to begin at the Colorado State Legislature.

Conservatives won the ground game, but mostly lost the war over guns with their battalion of members, car rallies and e-mails. Now, it’s the left’s turn. Demonstrations are being mounted around the Capitol. “Hey hey, ho ho, fracking has got to go” is aimed at Gov. Hickenlooper and some moderate Democratic legislators.

A host of bills have been introduced, some significantly upending the state regulatory process, others clearly aimed at simply stopping all fracking.

Hickenlooper would like to find a compromise, but it won’t be easy. Fracking unites the entire environmental left with local NIBYS who simply don’t want the impact of oil and gas exploration near their homes. Anti-growth, climate change, water pollution, pro-renewables, you name it, fracking is attracting the full spectrum of environmental issue advocates with an army of protestors.

This battle reflects the fact natural gas has become plentiful and cheap.  It is rapidly replacing coal as the main energy source for electrical generation.  The upside is profound:

• Americans could become energy independent
• American manufacturing is gaining a price advantage due to lower-priced energy
• Natural gas reduces the dependence on coal and lowers carbon emissions
• Gas and oil development are leading the recovery, and the industry is very advantageous for Colorado’s employment and local and state tax revenue

With the liberal tilt of this legislature and the anti-fracking grassroots legions, the Governor and industry will be very busy.

Bloomberg is Wasting Money

Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s commitment to spend millions in anti-gun advertising is probably not just a waste of money, but counter-productive.

Senate Majority Leader Reid did not miscount.  There weren’t 40 votes for an assault weapons ban, and running local TV advertising in red states with Democratic senators up in 2014 won’t move the needle.

In fact, the latest CBS poll by Anthony Salvanto shows that support for gun control is backsliding since the Newtown shooting. Public support for stricter laws is now 47 percent, down from 57 percent last December. Half the public want laws kept the same (39%) or lessened (11%). There was a 12-point drop off in Democratic support for stricter laws.

But, Bloomberg as the most egregious example of the rich elite New York nanny state liberal is an easy foil for Wayne LaPierre and the NRA.  He probably costs more red state votes than his ads gain.

See:
CBS News: Poll: Support for stricter gun control wanes
Huffington Post: Heidi Heitkamp blasts Michael Bloomberg over gun control ads

Does Democratic Legislative Agenda Threaten Governor?

Is the aggressive liberal agenda of the Democrats, which roared through the first half of the legislative session, endangering party moderates, especially Gov. Hickenlooper?

Colorado Democrats have become national leaders in passing gun control and civil union legislation. Also on their agenda is in-state tuition for the children of undocumented parents, recreational marijuana regulations, abolition of the death penalty, restrictions on fracking and new taxes for education. Party liberals and Democratic interest groups are enthusiastic about moving the full legislative agenda by the May end of session.

The Democratic Party now securely holds the state’s top positions and strong majorities in both houses of the Legislature. But that dominance has been a reflection of the party not appearing extreme or in disarray. The startling success of the Colorado Democratic Party since the election of Ken Salazar to the U.S. Senate in 2004 has, at least partially, reflected its selection of candidates, who by track records and campaigns presented themselves as moderates.

The statewide team of Salazar, Udall, Bennet and Hickenlooper has benefitted the party by their measured images. At least in business issues and in general temperament, John Hickenlooper may be the most centrist politician of the group and it’s clear he’s becoming concerned about the speed and volume of liberal proposals.

Hickenlooper is up in 2014 and is not convinced the state is as safely blue as the legislative leadership and its allies believe or at least are acting. Hence, his comments that he may veto the death penalty bill. He’s trying to slow down the game and warn his left to pause.  And pause they did.

In spite of statements of near certainty by Democratic bill sponsors that they had the votes to pass the death penalty repeal, the House Judiciary Committee killed it with two Democratic votes.

It appears the party’s left wing, which is already unhappy with him about his support for fracking, has momentarily backed off. Boulder’s liberal, anti-death penalty DA Stan Garnett, who covets the attorney general nomination, was quick to attack the governor’s position as shameful and complain about the alleged political risk he faced in testifying for the death penalty repeal. Frankly, in Boulder, being in favor of the death penalty is riskier.

The next issue is fracking. That will produce another more difficult test between the liberal wing and the pragmatists.

See Denver Post: House committee rejects death penalty repeal bill Tuesday

Obama Wants Movement on Immigration Reform

The one thing that could stop progress on immigration reform is President Obama getting involved.  That is no doubt frustrating for a president who sees himself as an extraordinary advocate. But the Los Angeles Times confirmed on Monday that when the President’s support is attached to a proposed plan, Hispanic support goes up slightly, but Republican support drops 13 points.

In general, reform stakeholders have encouraged the president to stand aside and let the legislation being drafted by the “gang of eight” move forward. Obama has a hard time doing that since his goal of actually addressing problems conflicts with his and his senior advisors’ goal of gaining political advantage and winning back the House.

Obama has threatened to introduce his own bill if the Senate effort lags, but most observers believe any Obama legislation would collapse in the long history of partisan gridlock surrounding the issue.

See Huffington Post: Obama on immigration reform: “We’ve got to finish the job”

Friends and Foes

When Americans assess the nations of the world as favorable and unfavorable as they do domestic politicians, they place English-speaking countries and WWII adversaries, now allies, at the top of the favorability list. The survey, conducted regularly by Gallup, places North Korea and several Middle East and central south Asian nations at the bottom.

North Korea hugging the bottom of the list is not a surprise. The new and untested leader, Kim Jong-un, and his government have fired missiles, tested a nuclear bomb underground, sent a parliamentary leader to Iran to talk “scientific cooperation,” and threatened to attack the U.S. with nuclear weapons and turn South Korea into a “sea of flames.”

And mostly this was just in the last few weeks related to strengthening his leadership position and an effort at distraction while the UN, including China, added even more sanctions on the regime.

So much for hope and change with a young new leader.

RNC – Comprehensive Immigration Reform

As one liberal think tank advocate exclaimed: “Nine months ago, people would have thought you were nuts to say that four Republicans and four Democrats were working on a way to legalize 11 million people,” said Angela Kelley of the Center for American Progress.

There is still a long way to go, even for the so-called Gang of Eight, to put a proposal on the table. But when the RNC joins four Democrats, including party warhorses like Charles Schumer and Dick Durbin, and four Republicans, including 2008 nominee John McCain and a 2016 prospective candidate Marco Rubio, to endorse compromise immigration reform, things have changed.

Immigration reform is a difficult issue, and none of the stakeholders are taking it for granted.  President Bush wanted to accomplish it and had no success. It did not have President Obama’s attention when Democrats controlled both houses of Congress. Plus, in 2009 and 2010 many Democrats feared a backlash. But fortunately for proponents, public opinion and political positioning are today in a sufficient state of alignment to move the proposal forward.

The surprising correlation of forces reflects the significant increase in the political clout of Latinos and the public’s growing frustration with the lack of progress. It has given both parties sufficient incentive to keep their demands within reason and accept some of the necessary trade-offs to get the issue resolved.

See:
Los Angeles Times: Senators agree on path to legal status for illegal immigrants
The Buzz: Immigration reform has a chance