Americans Believe Right to an Abortion Should Remain in Constitution

Although Americans are still conflicted on the abortion issue, the constitutional right appears firmly supported 40 years after the Supreme Court decision.

Several new polls with different wording, but all conducted in January 2013, all show majorities and, in some cases, super majorities for not overturning the Roe v. Wade decision.

But Roe v. Wade has its weaknesses as a firm constitutional right:

• Many constitutional scholars believe the core legal rationale is not well-embedded in constitutional doctrine or tradition and, hence, invites challenges. The Court has accepted state-sponsored restrictions to the abortion right (Planned Parenthood v. Casey, 1992) and federal restrictions related to partial-birth abortion (Gonzales v. Carhart, 2007).
• Most people will accept restrictions. Gallup reports more than half of Americans believe abortion should be illegal only under certain circumstances. Eighty percent believe abortion should be illegal in the last trimester. However, there are more pro-abortion activists (about 30% in polls) than anti-abortion activists (range from 9% to 18%).
• Nearly a majority of the public (47%) believe abortion is morally wrong. Hence, there is a level of moral discomfort that leads people to support reasonable sounding limitations.
• The issue does not command much public attention. Only 18 percent see abortion as a critical issue and only 44 percent of persons from 18 to 29 years old can identify that Roe v. Wade was about abortion (only 13% of younger voters saw it as a critical issue). Although they are more pro-choice than people 30 years old and older, they are not activated by the issue the way feminists were in the 1970s and 1980s.
• The issue is a problem for Republicans. Although Gallup reports 67 percent of Republicans call themselves pro-life, the party is divided 46 percent to 48 percent in favor of not overturning Roe v. Wade. Hence, a substantial percentage of party identifiers support restrictions, but not criminalizing the core right.

See:

Gallup: Majority of Americans still support Roe v. Wade decision
Pew: Roe v. Wade at 40: Most oppose overturning abortion decision
Wall Street Journal: Support grows for Roe v. Wade

Colorado Major Trends in 2013

Colorado enters 2013 in a very good position, but the major trends influencing it will provide challenges.

The state is in a steady, if slow, recovery, and is below the national average for unemployment. Housing sales and prices have increased and local and state tax revenue are growing from the uptick in sales and income. Colorado also continues to attract new residents.

Colorado’s role as a battleground in the presidential election was a top news story, reinforcing the state’s reputation as a center of political involvement with a reasonably balanced, if sometimes unpredictable, political culture. But, Colorado faces challenges. Some are perennials, like population growth, but others, such as the oil and gas boom, are new.

Colorado citizens are fortunate. They live in a beautiful state with a strong and diverse economy and a better than average government. But, the task of 2013 will be to develop creative solutions to meet the challenges.

Western Senators Must Deal With Liberal Agenda

Allison Sherry reported that Colorado Senators Mark Udall and Michael Bennet are struggling to deal with the new gun agenda promoted by the President and sponsored by numerous congresspersons, including Ed Perlmutter.

They are avoiding early endorsement of proposals related to assault weapons and putting their emphasis on mental health funding and background checks.

Majority Leader Harry Reid is worried about a host of swing state senators up in 2014 being forced to take positions on gun bills that have powerful and well-heeled constituencies in opposition and likely won’t pass the House.  Although Senator Mark Udall starts in a strong position for re-election and has a generally centrist reputation, he would prefer to not have a host of votes on anti-gun legislation that may never get to the President’s desk.

The voting ratings in the Almanac of American Politics shows the most liberal rated senators are from the Northeast and Midwest, with the exception of Reid.  They are all Democrats.  The West has many of the most conservative senators, mostly Republican.

Udall’s and Michael Bennet’s voting records are in the centrist camp, along with Montana’s two senators.  Dianne Feinstein of California is also rated a centrist, but is taking the lead on the assault weapons ban.

Democrats must defend 20 seats, many in more conservative or battleground states, such as Mark Pryor in Arkansas, Mark Udall in Colorado, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, Max Baucus in Montana, Tom Udall in New Mexico, Tim Johnson in South Dakota and Mark Warner in Virginia.  Two Democratic seats are now open due to Jay Rockefeller in West Virginia and Tom Harkin in Iowa announcing their retirements in states that have elected Republicans statewide.

See Denver Post:  Colorado’s Sens. Udall and Bennet uncommitted on assault weapons ban

Climate Change is Back

Just when you thought the hydrocarbon sector of the economy was back, President Obama announces climate change is on the 2013 agenda in his inaugural address.

House Democrats tried to mount a climate change offensive in 2009, but the bad economy and health care, financial regulations and other legislation consumed all the political space.  The backlash on health care reform, evident by August 2009, brought new legislation mostly to a standstill.

Recent polls show a majority of the public believe climate change is a serious problem (64%; very serious – 39%) (Pew, Oct. 2012).  But, modest levels of agreement are registered on the question if it is manmade (42%).  And, only 28 percent of seniors, a key bloc of voters in the 2014 House and Senate election, believe climate change is manmade and only 52 percent see it as a serious problem (29% very serious).

The reality of 2013 is that oil and especially natural gas exploration, extraction, transportation, refinement and distribution may be one of our most important economic drives during the next phase of the slow recovery.  It is leading American to a long sought after goal of energy independence.

And, natural gas is, in fact, benefitting the environment by reducing the dependence on coal for electrical generation.

Higher taxes and more regulations will likely face considerable opposition.

Hillary vs. Biden

If Hillary Clinton decides to run for president, as of today, she would clear the field. Joe Biden is trying to secure the second position against the field; i.e., Governors Cuomo and O’Malley, etc., but he is far behind Clinton.

Biden’s high negative is no doubt related to his close association with the president and the polarization of Washington.

One caveat, Clinton was the overwhelming frontrunner in 2007, and a little-known first-term U.S. Senator won the nomination. Much can happen in four years.

Democrats Want to Defy Odds and Win the House

The usual rule is that the President’s party loses House seats during last midterm election. Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats want to beat the odds and win back the House.

Bill Clinton was the only president in recent years to win House seats in his last midterm election. Democrats managed to do that in spite of (or possibly because of) the pending Monica Lewinsky impeachment proceeding. The main casualty of that election was Newt Gingrich, who surrendered his speakership.

Democrats need 18 seats. Their strategy is to work with the newly energized President Obama to keep the Republicans on the defensive on a host of issues making them appear to be intransigent, outside the mainstream and captured by a radical right.

One month into the new year, it appears to be working, but the election is still two years away and the odds remain long.

Economy Starts to Move

President Obama begins his second term with a growing economy. That may be the reason it was barely mentioned in his inaugural address.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner in a Wall Street Journal interview claims the U.S. economy is in its early fourth quarter of a recovery (Europe is only in its second quarter). He believes the economy is resilient and diverse with many strong elements in recovery. Colorado’s economy is definitely in a recovery. Its diverse economy is back in a host of areas: housing, agriculture, high tech, manufacturing and energy.

Although Geithner believes the American economy is strong enough to survive the dysfunction of the political system, he does warn that, at some point, our creditors may run out of patience for our fiscal irresponsibility.