Obama Ahead by Five

Although President Obama has mostly been on the defensive in the month of March, his lead over Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney has stretched to five points.  It seems eons ago, but on January 1, as the Iowa caucus approached, Romney only trailed Obama by 2 points.  But it was Super Tuesday, February 7, when Romney lost Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri that he slipped behind Obama by four or more points.

A variety of factors have helped Obama, especially an improving economy, the raucous Republican primaries and Romney’s stilted performance.

The last 30 days, Obama’s troubles have been gas prices, Obamacare and open mics.  No impact in the horse race question has been detected as yet.

Scouts and Trackers

Colorado’s frontier history produced famous scouts who made early civilization a bit safer.  Today’s political trackers make our politics a little less civilized.

Kurtis Lee of the Denver Post reports on the National Republican Congressional Committee hiring young operatives with a hand-held camera to track the candidates in the Democrats’ two most winnable districts – Sal Pace in the third district and Joe Miklosi in the sixth... 

Having seen the impact in the 2006 Virginia senate race (“Macaca Moment”), trackers are now part of the normal campaign background in high-profile, targeted races.

“‘It’s almost a standard operational procedure and comes to be expected that with highly targeted races, both Republicans and Democrats are going to hire individuals to videotape the every move of a rival candidate,’ said political analyst Floyd Ciruli.

Ciruli said that with this year’s congressional races – where some have the potential to be close contests – catching a candidate in an unscripted moment can become a talking point all the way up until Election Day in November.

‘With social media these days, a sound clip can reach millions instantaneously,’ said Ciruli, who calls tracking an interactive form of opposition research.”

Republican Nomination Officially Over June 6 – Romney Wins

If Mitt Romney continues gathering delegates at his 55 percent rate, he will have 1,147 delegates after the June 6 primary, which includes New Jersey and California.

There tends to be a bandwagon effect as it becomes clear the non-frontrunners can’t win.  Newt Gingrich is having a hard time attracting a press following, except as a political deathwatch.  Rick Santorum’s campaign is increasingly less credible and his statements more extreme and hostile.  It reminds observers of his 2006 Pennsylvania 18-point crash and burn experience.

The questions becomes:  Can the Republicans get over it and shake off this nomination fight and can Romney get this back to a two-point race it was in January?

Romney Maintains a National Lead

After tough battles in the south, but the big Illinois win, Mitt Romney continues to hold a national polling lead over Rick Santorum of seven points.

Newt Gingrich is in low double-digits with Ron Paul.  Gingrich only has 141 delegates, which is unlikely to grow much.  Polls indicate if he got out, his votes would split between Santorum and Romney, which may be his main motivation for staying in the race – revenge.  He wants to deny any of those delegates or his future primary votes to Mitt.

Gingrich’s mediocre performance on Super Tuesday has doomed his campaign to, at best, spoiler status.  And even that role is unlikely.

See:

Gallup: Romney, Santorum tie as Gingrich voters’ second choice

Ciruli blog:  Romney is Back – Again

Romney Breaks 500 Delegates

Mitt Romney’s sweep of Puerto Rico helped him reach the 500 delegate threshold, or 49 percent of the delegates needed for nomination.  Romney in the last ten days swept the islands, with Hawaii and Puerto Rico the bigger wins, for a total of 54 delegates. 

Rick Santorum may have the passion of the grassroots, but his campaign has been a failure of delegate strategy.  Santorum’s collapse in Illinois, at least partially, reflects an under-financed campaign and his failure to file for delegates in parts of Illinois.

The next major milestone will be reaching 573 delegates, or half the goal to the 1,144.  April will produce nine contests with more than 375 delegates, including New York and Pennsylvania.

·         Romney 55% of decided delegates

·         Romney 49% of total for nomination

As my March 7 blog stated, “Santorum and Newt Gingrich have no plausible theory to win the nomination…”

U.S. Ahead in Far East Competition With China

As the U.S. shifts alliance and defense attention from Europe to Asia, it begins with a considerable history and some reservoir of good will.  Our competitor for influence, China, has substantial and growing resources and proximity, but many neighboring people are not impressed or comfortable with China’s leadership.

A Gallup poll of late last year shows among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) citizens, the U.S. has a 44 percent approval of its leadership whereas China has 30 percent.

When examining each nation, the U.S. is strongest in Cambodia (68% approval) and the Philippines (63%) and has the least approval by Indians (16%) and the Vietnamese (21%).

China only gets above 50 percent among Cambodians (55%).  Its second best approval is in Malaysia (42%).  Like the U.S., India (10%) and Vietnam (22%) provide the worst scores.

Obviously, there are a number of nations, especially India, that the U.S. needs to build alliances with citizens and national leaders.

See also my blog:  Americans See China as a Super Power; Friendly, But Not an Ally

Hispanics Back Obama

The latest Fox News poll published March 5 shows that President Barack Obama is winning the Hispanic vote by 70 percent to 14 percent against Mitt Romney.  Romney’s share is less than one-half of the Hispanic vote John McCain received in 2008 (31%).

In Colorado, 70 percent would be a major improvement over the 61 percent Obama received from Hispanic voters as reported by the 2008 exit poll (see Blogspot, Sept. 28, 2011).

Although Hispanic voters are not happy with the administration’s handling of immigration, they consider the economy, jobs and health care as more important, and they tend to support liberal-, Democratic-oriented positions on them.

And, more important, the Republican nomination fight has pushed the candidates to take very sharp and high visibility positions on illegal immigration.  Romney, for example, in the Arizona debate praised controversial Maricopa County (Phoenix) Sheriff Joe Arpaio and advocated building a wall and ending federal legal action against state’s, like Arizona’s, anti-illegal immigrant legislation.

In contrast, Hispanics overwhelmingly support the Dream Act (91%), which grants legal status to unauthorized immigrant children if they attend college or serve in the U.S. military for two years (Pew, Dec. 2011).

Two-thirds of Hispanics report affiliation with the Democratic Party (67%), which ensures they are more likely to support President Obama.  Only 20 percent of Hispanics consider themselves Republicans.  Income, religion and ideology produce some of the largest partisan difference among them.