Colorado’s Ten Biggest Stories in 2011

The 2011 political and news stories that had impact – a lot of irony and considerable strangeness.

1.      Hancock Denver’s new mayor.  Aurora changes guard.

2.      Democrats lose 2010 election; win 2011 redistricting.

3.      Voters say no to Proposition 103.  Court in Lobato says yes to billions in new school funding.

4.      Removing Denver’s Zuccotti Park lights up state capital grounds.

5.      After twenty years of fighting taxes, not paying them gets Bruce locked up.

6.      Time to rename the Sullivan Detention Center.

7.      Weld County became fracking Saudi Arabia.

8.      Medical marijuana is okay, but local distributors are out.

9.      Stock Show rustlers headed off at pass.

10.  For a moment, Tebow took us to heaven.

Democrats Fight to Challenge in 6th CD

Democrats have a fight to represent the newly designed sixth congressional district.  An ill-known two-term state legislator, Joe Miklosi, is being challenged by physician (chiropractor), Perry Haney.

Neither candidate has any name identification among Democrats in the district and both candidates will need exceptional campaigns to beat Mike Coffman, a skilled Republican campaigner, during an era that has been notably short of them (2010 was an exception in the last half decade).

Kurtis Lee just covered the primary in the Denver Post (http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_19605788).

Miklosi will hug the party and Haney will spend money.

“‘Initially, Miklosi struggled with being the legitimate candidate, and he’s survived that as there’s no substantial Democrats running against him in the primary,’ said political analyst Floyd Ciruli.  ‘So now he doesn’t dare give any legitimacy to Haney, who is truly an outsider.’

By contrast, Ciruli said Haney, in positioning himself as the outsider, is banking that all incumbents — even two-term state legislators — will fall hard in defeat next year.

‘Money will be a tremendous factor, as it always is,’ Ciruli said.  ‘And if Haney wants to spend his, he can get that visibility on radio and TV and no doubt be competitive in a primary.’”

The decision will be in the newly established primary of June 26, 2012.

New Dates for Colorado 2012 Politics

The Colorado primary election for state and federal (not presidential delegates) candidates has been moved to June 26 in 2012 from its date of the 2^nd Tuesday in August, which held for more than two decades.

Obama Losing Colorado Unaffiliated Voters

President Barack Obama has a 39 percent approval rating in Colorado.  He loses the self-described independent voter – 41 percent approval to 46 percent disapproval.

Obama receives near universal Republican disapproval (93%), but holds the approval of three-quarters of Democrats (75%).  Fifteen percent of Democrats don’t approve of his job performance.

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered.  The poll was sponsored by the Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site.  It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Is Mark Udall Safe for 2014 Re-election?

The Public Policy Polling (PPP) robo poll published December 8 claims U.S. Senator Mark Udall “would win handily” over a couple of Republicans they tested him against.  But, a closer examination indicates Udall is highly vulnerable and could be headed for a very tough re-election, especially against Republican Congressman Mike Coffman. Even though 57 percent of voters couldn’t rate Coffman’s job approval in a head-to-head, he held Udall to below 50 percent (48% Udall to 34% Coffman), and Udall’s own job approval was only 41 percent, with more than one-quarter of the population having no opinion (28%) and nearly one-third (31%) disapproving of his performance.

Democrats have also given Coffman a reason to run for the Senate. His newly re-districted 6th congressional seat is highly competitive and Coffman will be motivated to step up.

Public Policy Polling: Almost Three Years out Udall in Good Shape for CO-Sen.

Obama and Gingrich Have High Negatives

In a new Ciruli Associates poll publicized in Floyd Ciruli’s blog site, The Buzz, Newt Gingrich has an unfavorable rating nearly equal to President Obama among all Colorado voters.

Mitt Romney is only 4 percentage points behind the President’s favorability, but Gingrich is 11 points back in favorability and most importantly he has a 45 percent negative rating (Obama has a high 49 percent).

Examining recent polls, reinforces the likelihood that the 2012 election will force an electorate to pick between two alternatives large pluralities of voters are unhappy with. This is a formula for a very volatile and grumpy electorate looking for some relief – expect more surprises.

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered. The poll was sponsored by The Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site. It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Hickenlooper – The Nonpartisan Governor

Governor John Hickenlooper has a nonpartisan image, and it is reflected in voters’ evaluation of his job performance.  In a new Ciruli Associates poll, 59 percent of Colorado voters approve of Hickenlooper’s job at the end of his first year.

Hickenlooper’s performance is approved by 79 percent of Democrats,

62 percent of independents and a surprising 44 percent of Republicans, nearly two-to-one over his Republican disapproval (27%).

Hickenlooper’s Job Approval and Partisanship

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered.  The poll was sponsored by The Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site.  It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

See Denver Post staff writer Tim Hoover’s blog:  Poll:  Hickenlooper’s job approval 59%